Moody's upgrades Egypt's outlook to stable

Ahram Online, Monday 20 Oct 2014

International ratings agency upgrades Egypt's economic outlook ahead of February Economic Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh

Workers from Egypt
Workers from Egypt in the construction of a hotel (Photo: Reuters)

International credit ratings agency Moody's on Monday upgraded Egypt's outlook to stable from negative, thus making the country's struggling economy more hospitable to international investrors.

Moody's decision was based on improved political stability, fiscal consolidation and signs of growth recovery, but limited by high fiscal deficits and government debt levels.

The ratings agency also affirmed Egypt's government bond rating at Caa1.

The decision could bare well for Egypt in the upcoming Economic Summit on 21-22 February which aims to attract international community to invest in the country. 

Since the election of President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi in July, the government has undertaken structural reform of the state budget. This included a bold move to cut energy subsidies by up to 78 percent and implementing controversial taxes.

The Egyptian government set a target for growth at six percent by fiscal year (FY) 2018/19, to be achieved through partnerships with the private sector.

Egypt's growth stood at a low 2.2 percent at the end of the last fiscal year but on the back of relative strong growth levels in the last quarter, the rate reached 3.7 percent.

The state budget deficit hit 12.6 percent in the last FY but is targeted to reach 10.5 percent this FY and 8-9 percent in five years, while government debt is targeted to become 80-85 percent of GDP in five years after reaching 97 percent of GDP last year.

Moody's saw 'strong support from external donors' as a factor for upgrading the country's outlook.

Since the removal of president Mohamed Morsi in July 2013, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have pledged $12 billion in aid to Egypt.

Saudi Arabia has further called on the international community to attend a donors conference – later renamed Egypt's Economic Summit – to support the Egyptian economy.

Moody's also affirmed the ratings for Egypt's backed global bonds at Aaa, foreign currency bond ceiling at B3, foreign currency deposit ceiling at Caa2 and local currency country risk ceiling at Ba3.

Short link: