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Three scenarios for the fate of the Mubaraks

Direct referral to criminal court, more investigation or vindication: at this point legal sources cannot predict which path the Mubaraks, all or each, will walk

Dina Ezzat , Thursday 14 Apr 2011
Mubaraks Family
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Ousted president Hosni Mubarak and his two sons, Alaa and Gamal, have spent their first night of 15 days in custody on allegations of financial and political corruption. Mubarak was held at a military hospital and his two sons in Tora Prison.

As they woke this morning, away from the pleasant Red Sea view of their residence in Sharm El-Sheikh, the Mubaraks are facing three possible scenarios regarding their fate, according to a legal source familiar with their case.

The first scenario is that the Mubaraks — or at least the Mubarak’s sons — would be referred to a criminal court within or by the end of the 15 days. “Usually when the prosecutor decides to keep someone for 15 days in custody for investigation it means that there is strong evidence that would require referral of the case to the criminal court,” the legal source said.

“Yes, you could well learn that the former president and his two sons are taken to criminal court to defend themselves against the charges,” both of financial corruption and abuse of power, and instigating the killing of peaceful demonstrators in Tahrir Square, the source added. “It would be then up to the judge to decide whether the evidence presented by the prosecution is compelling enough to issue a guilty verdict with legal punishment, or not.”

Usually, the legal source added, in cases with so much detail, like that of the Mubaraks, it takes long time for the judge to decide, and “given the public pressure on the whole legal system one should expect a long process if the president and his sons are referred to the criminal court.”

In any event, if the Mubaraks are proven guilty it is within the discretion of the judge to offer the old and ailing president an exemption from imprisonment on health grounds, by which he could serve whatever term he is sentenced to in a prison hospital or be sent home and kept under house arrest.

It could be up to the next president to decide or not to offer Mubarak such an exception on health grounds. Mubarak himself issued a similar order for political opponent Ayman Nour. The former president had also used a similar legal prerogative to spare journalist Ibrahim Issa from prison after he was convicted of slander against Mubarak.

The second scenario is for the prosecutor to decide that more investigations are required with one or two or the three of the Mubaraks, thus extending the custody period for another 15 days. “It is important to note that while they face similar charges, each stands as an independent case,” the legal source noted.

The third scenario — and this is what the lawyers of the Mubaraks are frantically working on — is to provide counter evidence that would prove that the Mubaraks, all or any of them, are not in the wrong and that there are no grounds to keep them in police custody. Should this be the case then the Mubaraks, all or any of them, could be released from custody to go back under house arrest, or if there is considerable defence evidence, to be just released and be on call for further investigation if needed.

The legal source declined to predict which of the three scenarios would be realised. “This is a very tough case to predict; everybody is under immense public and political pressure — the prosecution, the judges and the lawyers,” he said.

He added that the details of the cases against the Mubaraks are being kept under the tight grip of Mubarak lawyer Farid El-Dib, who is not sharing information even with some of his closest aides. El-Dib, he added, gives assignments to some of his aides but reveals no information: “None whatsoever”. “It is a very sensitive case,” the legal source stated.

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amr
16-04-2011 12:39am
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no
no comment
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Sami
15-04-2011 07:09pm
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Don't just blame Mubarak. It started with Nasser 60 years ago, not 30.
Mubarak cannot be blamed solely "for destroying Egypt." The destruction began in 1952 when the first dictator Abdel Gamal Nasser took over power. It began 60 years ago, not 30 years ago.
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Ali
15-04-2011 11:43am
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DESERVES
I think when you kill, no other achievement in Life can be remembered. What if a very good, pious man, kills your daughter or son, then became a serial killer in the last 2 years of his life? Will you say he did good things in Life, let him be free, or lets balance?
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zak
15-04-2011 10:25am
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i hope
I hope we are spared from having to live with all the extreme creepiness of national US political discourse and FOX syndrome of lethargic political non-debate.
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Mahoudsoliman42@yahoo.com
15-04-2011 08:21am
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The president Mubarak
the custody of him , h disapprove of it . it's brutality and inhuman 'he served for more than 50 years to protect Egypt , he is our hero and the leader of air forces in 73 war , we should honor him , not humiliate him, he's one of the most respectable leaders all over the , world , god bless him.
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Masreya Fil Ghorba
15-04-2011 05:41am
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The Fate of the Mubaraks
We, that is to say, people play roles in our lives. Some have very private roles and private lives, and these, don't usually draw much attention world wide. Then there are those who have public figures which the world follow especially if they have achieved greatness or fell down to the abyss. When public figures become political like a president, then their impact, both locally and internationally can be paramount. Mubarak as a man is not the issue here. He might have been a dutiful husband, an exemplary father, a loving grandfather and a good friend to many ... but his public role was of a president, to rule, to guide, to protect, to improve, to uplift and elevate the people of Egypt. Mubarak has FAILED to do so. He has knowingly through the years kept his people in the dark and in ignorance, not to mention in poverty, unemployment and ill-health ... would you do that to your own children? Of course not! Therefore, as a ruler, he had a duty of care. He had power which he ha
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كاريمان الشريف
15-04-2011 03:58am
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لا لمحاكمة مبارك
اطلب بالا يتحاكم صاحب الضربه الجويه الريس محمد حسنى مبارك -مما قدمه لنا من انجازات لمصر و37 - وحرصا على شدة مرضه الذى يحاكمه الان - الرحمة لهذا الرجل المسكين -شكراا
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mayssoun rabbat
15-04-2011 12:10am
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Mubaraks
Whats going in Egypt is unfare.President Mubarak did a lot for his country and the arab world.He stepped down avoiding a civil war . Respecting his age and his history he shouldnt be treated like that .SHAME ON all this irrresponsable protesters, as if the age of the french revolution is blowing on Egypt .....
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Masry
15-04-2011 12:06am
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He should go to prison
Mubarak had committed criminal crimes and he spoiled the political environment in Egypt. He and his sons stole tons of money while 95% of Egyptian could not find bread and they were killing in each other to get bread to feed their children. I cannot even imagine that he can be innocent or not guilty. This guy must be sentenced to death or 25 years of imprisonment.
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Joe
14-04-2011 04:13pm
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Egypt
As world leaders have pressured Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down and allow for a new Egyptian government, the world has no idea what will happen in this Middle Eastern country. However, Bible prophecy does reveal the future for Egypt and its people. So many political pundits and world leaders have almost from day to day voiced what Mubarak and Egypt should do or not do. One news gathering organization after the other has embellished the reports of this popular uprising in Egypt and played a unique role in fomenting this almost revolution in Cairo. Most political leaders agree that Mubarak's days as president are over and the Egyptian military can and must play the key role in Egypt's immediate future. That being said, the true future has already been written as far back as 2500 years ago in the pages of Bible prophecy. When I say the future, I do not mean the next day, week, or even month - but the future as it relates to Bible prophecy. Isaiah 19 looks to a time wh
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