Libya's major powers, namely those supporting the country's unity government, seem to be reassessing the situation in the North African country after recent geostrategic developments including eastern commander Khalifa Haftar's seizure of some of Libya's major oil ports.
An international meeting on the conflict in the country called and hosted by France earlier this month failed to gather momentum, produce an action plan or come up with recommendations on the crisis. Nevertheless, the gathering is still seen as essential as it serves as an indication of international powers' awareness of major political shifts taking place in the strife-ridden country that would redefine the balance of local powers and impact the security situation.
Among the main benefits of the meeting was having intentional and regional powers involved in the Libyan crisis acknowledge that Haftar's Libyan National Army is a major security player in the crisis and that any future transitional move should be planned accordingly.
The meeting did not serve as an attempt to bring Libya's polarised eastern and western forces closer together, but rather as a move to identify the means to reach future settlements based on political versus security weight. It was also a bid by western powers to develop a new strategy that takes into account the new balance of powers and possible future scenarios in Libya.
It has also made it clear that a 2015 United Nations-brokered agreement to form a national unity government seemingly needs amendment to reach stability in the war-torn country and save it from falling apart.
Paris, in principal, does not have any trump cards to push any of the sides towards settlement, given the divergence between Western powers supporting the Libya's unity government of Prime Minister Fayez Seraj. Nor does it have a coherent action plan or strategy to keep up with developments on the ground.
Paris's position on the crisis in Libya has been that of no intervention unless the Islamic State militant group goes on to seize the country or large swathes of it. France has thus maintained special forces in Libya's mountainous western region of Zintan to intervene when necessary.
France has long believed that the political conflict between Libya's east and west would once again descend into civil war and that the Islamic State group's withdrawal from strategic regions means a new strategy is urgently needed to contain the situation that would have implications for southern Europe.
This said, France, however, has only moved a step forward symbolically not strategically with the recent meeting, as the situation in Libya is seemingly governed by foreign rather than local players.
The likely scenario of a power struggle in Libya will be that the two heavyweight fronts, Hafrat and Sarraj, attempting to weaken one another. There is a power balance between the two sides, with Haftar having military weight and Sarraj having political influence besides regional and US-European funds, making it not an easy task for both sides to seize areas controlled by rivals.
Each side is in fact seeking to establish itself, with Haftar looking for a greater role to seize larger swathes of the country to present himself as a political-military reader. But with the outcome of the Paris meeting, chances are that Haftar will not receive enough support to topple Sarraj.
Haftar will therefore have to choose between either joining Sarraj's government with a deal that would allow him to preserve his military weight until the almost one-year transitional period culminates with polls and the cabinet is approved by a parliament in a later vote, or reaching a deal with foreign players who have thrown their weight behind Sarraj with a plan to fight militant forces worrying the West, without integrating himself into Sarraj’s government.
If he chooses the second scenario, he will have to stand on a neutral footing with the unity government and the balance of military and security powers, through a military council with the Sarraj government that does not allow either side to infringe on each other's authorities.
Sarraj, who meanwhile is seeking to bolster his political position, would be required to guarantee he will not trespass on Haftar's military powers by marinating the armament decision with the government, a key move in rebuilding the army.
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