Turkey’s 2015 parliamentary elections: Q&A

Bassem Aly , Miro Guzzini , Tuesday 9 Jun 2015

Ahram Online analyses the results of Turkey’s parliamentary elections

Turkey
Supporters of pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party celebrate in Diyarbakir, southeastern Turkey, Monday, June 8, 2015 (Photo: AP)

In this electoral race, how many votes and seats did each party receive?

As usual, the ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) received the highest number of votes with 48.86 percent [258 seats]. It, however, lost its majority.  

The Republican People’s Party (CHP) came second with 24.9 percent [132 seats], with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) coming third with 16.29 percent [80 seats]. The pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) took fourth place with 13.12 percent [80 seats].

Are the ruling Islamists satisfied?       

Certainly not, simply because the outcome was better for them in previous electoral races.

The AKP's 258 seats, moreover, will prevent Erdogan from accomplishing his dream of increasing presidential powers through constitutional changes, an issue that has been part of Turkish politics for a few years now.

The AKP won 34 percent of the votes in the 2002 elections -- the year that witnessed its rise to power for the first time -- jumping to 50 percent in the 2007 and 2011 general elections.

After consecutive electoral victories in the past 13 years, simply winning elections no longer became the sole ambition for the party, thanks to its economic achievements.

This week's AKP victory is the first electoral test for the party under the premiership of Ahmet Davoutgolu -- Turkey’s former foreign minister -- who became prime minister following Erdogan presidential victory in 2014, after 11 years as premier.  

Can Erdogan still amend the constitution and introduce a presidential system?

If this election has made one thing clear, it is that the Turks have rejected Erdogan's controversial reform plan.

A change in the country’s political structure could have taken place in one of two ways. Gaining 330 seats in the 550-seat parliament would have been enough for the AKP to change the constitution, but only after holding a public referendum. To escape the necessity of a referendum, its candidates needed to win a two-third majority of 367 seats.

The HDP and the CHP publicly declared their opposition to the AKP's reform plan during the campaign. Erdogan's reaction to the election result was thus rather cautious, as he acknowledged that the results "do not give the opportunity to any party to govern alone."

This new tone, a marked contrast to his inflammatory speeches ahead of the election, gives the impression that he has shelved his plans for a stronger presidency, at least for the time being.

With the current unstable configuration, is a snap election possible?

New elections are actually very possible, though the AKP has announced that it will attempt to form a coalition government first. Considering the big ideological gaps between all parties, it would take tough talks and compromises to reach a coalition agovernment before the deadline. No party has expressed support for this scenario so far.

According to Turkish law, the AKP, which garnered the largest number of seats in the election, has 45 days to form a government. If they fail to do so, the president must call new elections.

Prior to the AKP’s rise to power in 2002, Turkey saw a string of weak, inefficient coalition governments. Therefore, it is hard to predict whether any coalition talks will be successful. But failure will raise questions about the likelihood of a change in the public mood within an extremely short period of time.

Why is everyone talking about the HDP? 

The whole story started last year. Selahattin Demirtas, HDP’s leader, came third in the presidential elections that Erdogan won last year.

This experience signified one strong motive for Demirtas to hope for a bigger HDP role in parliament after candidates ran as independents in the past.

The pro-Kurdish HDP is different from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) led by its jailed figure Abdullah Ocalan, which has been in conflict with Turkish forces since the 1980s.

A ceasefire agreement has been active for two years between Turkey and the PKK after fruitful negotiations with Ocalan. On July 2014, the Turkish parliament passed legislation that legalised talks with the PKK, though no progress has been seen since then.  

During the election campaign, the HDP portrayed itself as a party for “all of Turkey.” Turkish media reports showed HDP supporters holding both Turkish and party flags during their rallies, which could explain how the party managed to overcome the Kurdish history of armed violence. The final polls confirmed the ability of the party to surpass the ten percent threshold and take seats from AKP candidates.

In the end, the HDP succeeded to Turkish voters with different affiliations and interests such as leftists, rightists, secularists and devout Muslims. A BBC report showed that the HDP unprecedently won votes in secular Western cities such as Izmir, Antalya and Bursa.  

Short link: