Egyptians face a choice between Mubarak-era aviation minister Ahmed Shafiq and the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi in presidential runoffs to be held on 16 and 17 June.

Copts are considered an important factor in deciding who is going to be Egypt’s next president. Will they vote for Shafiq or Morsi? . It is estimated that about 2.5 -3 million Copts voted in the first round and that 50-60% of them are expected to vote in the second and final round.

Rooted in the Coptic mind for a while are fears and concerns of a state governed by Islamists. There has long been mistrust between Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood and Copts. Copts fear being treated as a minority and that their freedoms and rights would be restricted under an Islamic state headed by the Muslim Brotherhood.

On the other hand, Islamists do not believe that Copts should be in high leadership positions according to their interpretation of Islamic sharia. They are many issues that increase the gap between the two sides.

Mohamed Morsi, in his press conference after the first round of the presidential elections, spoke in general terms about how the institution of the presidency would include Copts, women, youth and others. He was not specific however about which positions he might give to Copts. Some political analysts argued that he missed a golden opportunity to convince Copts to vote for him. These mutual suspicions might end in Copts supporting Shafiq and not Morsi.

On the economic level, young Copts, businessmen and housewives confirmed in interviews that they will vote for Shafiq. One Coptic businessman said, “I voted for Shafiq in the first round and I will vote for him again since he will achieve the right environment for investment and economic growth.” Other Copts said that Shafiq was successful when he was a minister of civil aviation and he will achieve stability and prosperity for all Egyptians.

On the political level, Copts are concerned about a possible Islamist control of all aspects of political life in Egypt. Sameh Fawazy, a Coptic journalist expressed the fears in this way: “if Morsi wins, the Muslim Brotherhood will control the main positions, namely parliament, presidency and maybe the cabinet. It might end in a new dictatorship.”  Several Copts think that if Musri won he may not leave office after four years, while Shafiq would step down at the end of his term because of his age and pressure from opposition.

When it comes to security, a concern for many Egyptians from different backgrounds, Shafiq voters believe he is the man to achieve security and stability because of his military background and experience. In contrast, Morsi would struggle to achieve stability since the army and police forces would be reluctant to cooperate with an Islamist. This might result in deteriorating security, some people fear. One young Coptic woman said, “Egypt needs a strong man to achieve stability and Shafiq is definitely the man to make this happen.”

The above factors mean that majority of Copts will vote for Shafiq. It should be mentioned that some Copts will not vote at all in the runoffs. Like a number of non-Copts, they refuse to make the choice between the Muslim Brotherhood and a figure from the ousted regime. Those Copts, who might boycott voting, voted in the first round for Hamdeen Sabbahi. The Copts have been accused of betraying the revolution because many of them voted for Shafiq in the first round. It is estimated that Copts’ votes were divided between Shafiq (40%-50%), Sabbahi (30%) and the rest for Amr Mousa and other candidates. The choice for many Copts is clearer in this round compared to the previous one.