The ongoing row between US President Donald Trump and former National Security adviser John Bolton raises many questions about the motives behind Bolton’s tell-all book, The Room Where It Happened, in which he describes Trump as ignorant and did not deserve to become president of the most powerful country in the world. More importantly, what is the position of the Jewish lobby and American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on this quarrel, and why did they not intervene to prevent Bolton from continuing to attack Trump, especially since both Trump and Bolton are considered good friends of AIPAC and Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned several times that Trump is one of Israel’s greatest supporters among US presidents across history. Not only has Trump recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, AIPAC Spokesman Josh Block commented on Bolton’s appointment as national security adviser in 2018 by saying: “Bolton is a very important and effective player for the US and always a strong advocate of issues supporting Israel.” Bolton attacked former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders in February because the latter criticised AIPAC and refused to participate in their annual convention in March.

It is surprising that AIPAC has not intervened to calm tensions between the two great friends of Israel, Trump and Bolton. Bolton’s actions cannot be interpreted as a personal vendetta against Trump who fired him in September 2019 and described him as a “disaster” and his manner “rude and stubborn”. Bolton, who has extensive experience in US political life, knows how his interests as a politician and lawyer can be hurt if he clashes with someone whom AIPAC views as a true friend of Israel. Therefore, the only assumption left is that Bolton perhaps knows that the Jewish lobby does not object to his assault on Trump.

Although recognising Trump’s generosity towards Israel during his tenure, there is evidence that Israel and AIPAC are not willing to link Trump’s decisions of recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, relocating the US embassy there and ending aid to the Palestinian refugee organisation UNRWA to their acceptance of Trump’s peace plan proposed in January. Especially since this step would mean establishing a Palestinian state on nearly 70 per cent of the West Bank and all of the Gaza Strip, which is unacceptable for radical right-wing parties that have been in Netanyahu’s coalition governments since 2009. AIPAC and Netanyahu said they are willing to accept a Palestinian state but did not approve the map included in Trump’s plan, which omitted annexing the Jordan Valley region to Israel.

It is clear that Bolton, who rejects a two-state solution, strongly fought with Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s Middle East peace envoy and co-creator of Trump’s peace plan. Greenblatt resigned a few days before Bolton was fired, but withdrew his resignation after Bolton left. This means Bolton lost his battle to Greenblatt and team Trump, and Bolton’s position is closer to Israel’s unofficial stance of rejecting a Palestinian state and the borders suggested in Trump’s plan.

Evidence that the quarrel about creating a Palestinian state and its borders was at the core of the dispute between Trump’s administration, Israel, the Jewish lobby and Bolton, are statements by David Hayani, chairman of the Yesha Settlement Council in the West Bank. In early June he told Haaretz newspaper: “Trump and his Middle East adviser Jared Kushner are not friends of Israel.”

It is unclear why Netanyahu is in a hurry to annex the Jordan Valley without waiting for the deadline given to the Palestinians to accept it in Trump’s proposal, but it is clear Netanyahu is willing to clash with Trump. Therefore, it is logical that Netanyahu will not ask AIPAC to intervene to stop Bolton from attacking Trump. In other words, Israel’s right wing and its leader Netanyahu are convinced that Trump has nothing more to offer Israel. Trump sent Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Israel in May to urge them not to unilaterally annex the Jordan Valley, which raised the alarm that Trump is willing to pressure Israel if key Arab states pressure the Palestinians into accepting Trump’s plan, or at least say they are willing to look at it with reservations.

Accordingly, we can infer that neither Netanyahu nor AIPAC are willing to support Trump in his upcoming race for the White House, and Bolton’s book could further undermine his chances of winning a second term.

The important question now is: is it in Israel’s interest for Democratic candidate Joe Biden to win the election, since he told AIPAC’s convention in March that if he wins the presidency, he plans to dismantle Trump’s proposal and replace it with US sponsorship of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.

Keeping Trump in the White House for another four years will not benefit Israel, and could in fact hurt Israel if he insists on preventing Tel Aviv from annexing the Jordan Valley. Biden, on the other hand, could spend months, a year or more envisioning an alternative US role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Netanyahu was able to freeze negotiations with the Palestinians and stand up to former US president Barack Obama to block Obama’s vision of a negotiated solution between the two sides, based on a two-state solution and establishing a Palestinian state on most of the West Bank. Netanyahu can also block any possible attempts by Biden — if elected — to impose a negotiated solution on Israel. During the back and forth game which Netanyahu excelled at with Obama, settlers were able to expand their settlements further and swallow up more Palestinian territories. This could happen again with Biden if he wins the White House in November.

In conclusion, it seems AIPAC is content with Bolton’s book and will not intervene to stop his attacks on Trump.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 25 June, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly