The new Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah has vowed to preserve the legacy of his brother, the late emir sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, who died on 29 September in hospital in the US.
The focus of the new emir will be mainly domestic, especially over the coming few months as the country is electing a new parliament in November.
In his acceptance speech, the new emir promised to preserve the security of Kuwait and the unity of its people, saying that “Kuwait throughout its history has seen serious challenges, which we have succeeded in overcoming through cooperating together… Today, our dear country also faces risky circumstances and difficulties that there is no way to get through except through unity.”
A main task for the new emir will be to pick a new crown-prince, who will need to be approved by parliament. There are also many domestic challenges, especially economic, as the coffers of the treasury are low due to a combination of low oil prices and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Though Kuwait has some of the largest financial assets in the world, most of these are held by its Future Generation Fund, and the law prohibits the government from withdrawing from the fund to supplement the budget.
In August, the Kuwaiti parliament passed a law scrapping a provision to transfer 10 per cent of the country’s income to the fund. As this year’s budget deficit is expected to be large, new laws will need to be approved by the legislature to raise the debt ceiling so the government can borrow more to plug the gap.
These pressing internal issues, along with the upcoming elections next month, are the priorities of the new Kuwaiti leadership. Foreign policy is not expected to witness any major moves, and most likely it will stay on the course set by the late emir.
One informed Kuwaiti source told Al-Ahram Weekly that “I don’t think foreign policy will change much in the short term because it is based on solid foundations... but it might change in the long run… depending on many factors that are both internal and external.”
In the immediate sphere of the Gulf region, the new emir will follow the path of the late sheikh Sabah, even though perhaps without the same impetus. Before assuming the country’s top post, sheikh Sabah was Kuwait’s long-serving foreign minister, and his diplomatic experience made him a well-respected mediator within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the wider Arab and Islamic world.
Sheikh Nawaf, while acting for the late emir during his medical treatment in US, sent the country’s foreign minister to Doha to pursue Kuwaiti efforts to solve the crisis over Qatar. As one Kuwaiti analyst said, there is also a full corps at the country’s Foreign Ministry tasked with this mission, and it is likely that their work will continue on the same path as before.
Many Western commentators have described the new emir as a “low-profile, old-generation person.” At age 83, Sheikh Nawaf might opt for a young crown-prince “who can get along well with the new generation of leaders in the Gulf,” one commented.
Almost all those the Weekly talked to in Kuwait said that it would not change course on main foreign-policy issues, including the Arab-Israeli issue. Ghanim Al-Najjar, a political science professor at Kuwait University, said in an interview that Kuwait might not follow the UAE and Bahrain in normalising relations with Israel.
“There is no interest for Kuwait in normalising relations with Israel at the moment, and the popular mood in Kuwait is against the normalisation of relations with Israel,” he told the Weekly, adding that he was “almost certain” the new emir would preserve that position.
Other sources reiterated the same view, refuting what US President Donald Trump said when he met the late emir last month and claiming that Kuwait could join other Gulf countries in striking a “peace deal” with Israel.
On the possible American pressure on Kuwait to change its position, Al-Najjar said that “there is no indication that Kuwait’s stand on normalisation with Israel will change soon – that was sheikh Sabah’s position. The American pressure won’t change the Kuwaiti policy.”
“Kuwait recently participated in a UN Security Council session, and the US pressured the Kuwaiti foreign minister at that time [now the prime minister] not to recognise the Venezuelan foreign minister, but he resisted and continued to recognise the current government of Venezuela,” he added.
As the country’s foreign minister for decades, and then emir, the late sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah kept up good relations with rivals Iran and the US. That will also likely not change, and Kuwait’s position on relations with Iran has never been the same as that of its neighbour and GCC leader Saudi Arabia.
One Kuwaiti analyst commented that “Kuwait has no choice but to keep to the same course with both Iraq and Iran.”
“I doubt there will be any change in foreign policy in this regard, and Kuwait will continue to keep good relations with Iran and the US. Since the fall of the Saddam regime in Iraq, Kuwait has been warming its relations with Baghdad, and this will likely continue as well,” Al-Najjar said.
There is little doubt that Kuwait’s foreign policy has lost the clout of veteran diplomat the late sheikh Sabah, but his brother, the new Emir Sheikh Nawaf, will most likely follow the same path, even perhaps without the same driving force.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 8 October, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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