Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office vowing sweeping reforms that earned him a Nobel Peace Prize, before becoming mired in a gruesome internal conflict that shows no sign of ending.

Now, as Ethiopia prepares to vote in a general election on Monday that Abiy hopes will secure him a popular mandate, he finds his global standing -- and the surge of hope that accompanied his appointment -- significantly diminished.

Yet even as he confronts persistent insecurity that has stymied basic poll preparation in some areas, Abiy appears unbowed.

The lightbulb logo of his Prosperity Party adorns banners lining the streets of the capital Addis Ababa and Abiy insists his vision for Africa's second-most populous country remains on course.

In an April speech he told supporters, in his trademark folksy language, that while Ethiopia might seem riven by crises, the real problem was one of perception.

He compared the country's experience to that of a village child disoriented by riding in a car for the first time.

"When the car moves forward, the buildings and trees go backward and we become confused," he said.

"In the same way, we are being confused now because we think it is the tree which is moving instead of the car.

"Whether you believe it or not, Ethiopia and Ethiopian-ness are flowering once again."

Meteoric rise

Abiy was once a village boy himself.

Born in the western town of Beshasha to a Muslim father and Christian mother, he has described sleeping on the floor in a house with no electricity or running water.

Fascinated with technology, he joined the military as a radio operator while still a teenager.

In his 2019 Nobel speech he recalled his time during the brutal 1998-2000 border war with Eritrea, saying his entire unit was wiped out in an Eritrean artillery attack that he survived only because he'd left a foxhole to get better antenna reception.

He rose to lieutenant-colonel before entering government as the first head of Ethiopia's cyber-spying outfit, the Information Network Security Agency.

Then came stints as a lawmaker and minister of science and technology.

Seizing the moment

The circumstances that lifted Abiy to high office can be traced to late 2015.

A government plan to expand the capital's administrative boundaries into the surrounding Oromia region was seen as a land grab, sparking protests led by the Oromos, Ethiopia's largest ethnic group, and the Amharas, the second-largest.

The ruling coalition at the time, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), resorted to its customary tactics: states of emergency and mass arrests.

These proved insufficient.

When then-prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn abruptly resigned, the coalition's member parties chose Abiy to become the first Oromo prime minister in 2018.

He released dissidents from jail, apologised for state brutality and welcomed home exiled groups -- part of a democratic rebirth meant to culminate in the most competitive elections in Ethiopia's history.

But Abiy encountered a host of obstacles, notably persistent ethnic violence including in his native Oromia.

Road to war

All the while, the northern Tigray region was seething.

Its ruling party, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), had dominated national politics before Abiy's rise, and its leaders did not take kindly to his perceived attempts to sideline them.

When Abiy dissolved the EPRDF and formed the Prosperity Party in 2019, the TPLF refused to go along.

In September 2020 it brazenly defied the prime minister by holding "illegal" regional elections, ignoring a nationwide ban on polls imposed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Two months later, Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking federal army camps and ordered troops into Tigray.

Though he promised the conflict would be swift, nearly seven months on fighting continues, with TPLF leaders at large and evidence of brutal massacres and rapes mounting.

Meanwhile world leaders warn of a humanitarian catastrophe.

A new 'crossroads'

Abiy is married to Zinash Tayachew, whom he met in the military.

The couple have three daughters and adopted a baby boy in August 2018.

Deeply ambitious, Abiy has been accused of focusing his attention on beautifying the capital and mediating conflicts abroad rather than the situation at home.

He has also been accused of embracing the same authoritarianism many hoped he would end, overseeing mass arrests and abuses by security forces.

Gone are the heady days of "Abiymania" that followed his appointment in 2018. Now his opponents openly disrespect him.

"I think he's stuck somewhere," Merera Gudina, an opposition leader from Oromia whose party is boycotting the elections, told AFP.

"He started to behave as a lost child at a crossroads. Such a child cannot go back because he doesn't know from where he came, and he cannot proceed because he does not know where he's going."

His supporters, though, remain true believers.

Early on in the Tigray war, some officials even suggested that, given Abiy's efforts to resolve the conflict, their boss might be deserving of "a second Nobel Prize."