Americans are praising Gulf countries; especially Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain for agreeing to host Afghan evacuees temporarily – until Washington finds a way to settle them somewhere. So far, Qatar will host 8000 and the UAE 5000. Kuwait and Bahrain agreed to host an unspecified number.

The chaotic scenes of Afghanis who worked with the US military, NATO forces and other Western bodies flocking to Kabul Airport to leave the country after the Taliban took over highlighted the extent of the disaster there. Now the Gulf countries are trying to prove to their American and European allies they can be reliable in times of need. But apart from the humanitarian effort, political rivalries in the Gulf were clearly manifest in the last few days with the rapid developments in Afghanistan. Though no strong political announcements have yet been made from Gulf capitals, it is clear there are differences emerging. Some commentators note the irony of the Qatari capital Doha hosting Taliban leaders while the Emirati capital Abu Dhabi hosted the fleeing Afghani President Ashraf Ghani.

It is an odd prospect, comparable to the first round of Taliban rule in Afghanistan a quarter of a century ago. When the militant movement took over in 1996, Saudi Arabia and the UAE along with Pakistan were the only countries in the world that recognised the Taliban government that was to be ousted by the American invasion of 2001 after 9/11. The attacks had cost the three US allies dearly since the Taliban were hosting the attackers. Qatar was also a target of America’s wrath for allegedly supporting Al-Qaeda and turning its famous satellite channel, AlJazeera, into a mouthpiece for Bin Laden and his cohort, though Doha didn’t actually recognise the Taliban government – nor did Iran.

When the Americans installed a different government in Kabul, all the Gulf countries supported it – from President Hamid Karzai to Ahraf Ghani – to appease Washington. Yet Qatar and Iran kept a sort of working relationship with the Taliban. So when the Americans started reaching out to negotiate with the Taliban years ago, Doha was their gateway. Washington forced Pakistan to release Taliban leader Mullah Abdel-Ghani Bradar from jail in 2018, so he could help with negotiations for the American military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Since then, Bradar has joined other Taliban senior figures in Doha where he is known to have conducted phone conversations with former US president Donald Trump.

The UAE was the only Gulf country to participate with troops in Afghanistan, as part of its commitment to the coalition to fight terrorism. In fact, it also played a supporting role as an American ally. American military operations in the region are commanded mostly out of Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air Base which hosts some 10,000 American troops. Americans also fly out of the Al-Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi. As a European analyst describes Qatari and Emirati positions today, “Each country is positioning itself in the best way possible to pursue its interests in this crisis.” But it’s Qatar’s approach that appears to have proven fruitful. The Gulf research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Cinzia Bianco, told AP, “Qatar has positioned itself as the go-to mediator with the Taliban. It was a risky bet, especially considering the optics with the wider public, but it paid off… Now, Qatar is well-positioned to be the first contact point for regional and international players who want to explore the possibility of engaging with the Taliban... without compromising themselves.”

This view is shared widely among Western analysts. They agree that other Gulf countries might prefer to keep a quiet stance, waiting for more to unfold before taking decisions. They tread a fine line – not to intimidate any party for the sake of protecting the security of the region. In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, Andrew Hammond of Oxford University echoes the same views: “The Gulf was critical to the Taliban regime the first time round, and it looks like it will be the same this time. Now it is Qatar that’s the crucial ally in the Gulf. Doha is the conduit for talks with US officials and AlJazeera Arabic has emerged as the outlet where the Taliban can get their opinions out to Arabic media and beyond. All in all, the Taliban, with help from Qatar, are putting on an impressive PR campaign.”

But the Gulf rivalry over Afghan developments goes even further. The difference between India and Pakistan over the issue – with Pakistan supporting the Taliban while India, especially under Modi, supported the American-backed government – was a Gulf issue too as Saudi Arabia and the UAE fostered closer ties with India. The position of Turkey is also significant to the Gulf rivals, as Ankara maintains links with Taliban while joining the American and NATO efforts in Afghanistan.

“The UAE and Saudi Arabia look to me to be happy to play a second fiddle role. They know the Taliban regime’s status in the West hangs in the balance - they might recognise them, they might not - so they can sit back and wait”, Hammond said, nonetheless stressing that the latest developments are playing into the Qatari camp’s hands. “There’s a good chance Qatar will remain the number one staging ground for Western contacts, no matter what happens - not least because the US military operations are run out of Qatar. Plus AlJazeera has convinced the Taliban that it is the most influential Arabic media platform. But in media terms Turkey’s TRT Arabic could emerge as an important platform for Taliban news as well”.

Afghanistan might not be as important to the Gulf region as Yemen, but with the prospect of the Taliban reviving the terrorist threat to the region, no one can ignore it. Many of Al-Qaeda’s terrorists were from the Gulf and North Africa, and they went there during the 1980s and 1990s to fight the Soviet occupation only to end up fighting against their own countries and the rest of the world.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 26 August, 2021 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly