Disputes among the major countries about resolving the Libyan crisis resurfaced at the Paris Summit on Libya on 12 November.
The gathering was attended by representatives from 30 countries as well as from international and regional organisations. While the Berlin Process on Libya temporarily silenced quarrels about the way forward in the country and resulted in a political breakthrough that enabled the formation of a new Libyan executive until elections are held on 24 December this year, these are now in doubt.
The process has been faltering, local agreements have not been reached and international bickering on the crisis is blocking progress.
The Paris Summit’s final communique was divided into four sections: the political process; security conditions; economic conditions and international law and human rights. The French Foreign Ministry published the communique as soon as the summit ended, but then removed it and later republished it on its website in Arabic.
One diplomatic source said the reason the communique was removed was because there were disagreements between France and the UK and Italy about the wording of articles on the planned elections in Libya. Negotiations has taken place during the summit, the source said, adding that there had been an agreement to rephrase these articles.
After the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, chairman of Libya’s Presidential Council Mohamed Al-Manfi and head of the Libyan national unity government Abdel-Hamid Al-Dbeiba all attended a news conference.
However, their statements indicated divergent views on security issues and the political process in Libya, including on the timeline and legal framework for the upcoming elections. Although the group stressed the importance of the Libyans holding elections on time as a solution to the crisis of legitimacy in the country, they differed on how to move forward.
Macron told reporters that two main gains had been made at the Paris Summit. First, Libya has co-chaired the international conference, and second, all the participants had confirmed their commitment “to the electoral process on 24 December and to make sure it is inclusive” and to harness “international support for the electoral process” under UN supervision.
He reiterated his call on Turkey and Russia to withdraw their mercenaries and other military forces from Libya “without delay” because their presence “is a threat to the stability and security of the country and the entire region.” He warned that a ceasefire in Libya did not necessarily mean peace and emphasised the importance of building on the agreement signed in October 2020 to reach sustainable peace in the country.
In her statements, Merkel focused on the importance of withdrawing mercenaries from Libya, stating there were Turkish “reservations” and Russian “conditions” on this issue. She said she hoped that the 5+5 Joint Military Commission in Libya had a plan that reflects Libya’s position on this issue and that she was optimistic about the progress being made in Libya despite the sometimes slow process.
Draghi spoke of the need for legislation to regulate the electoral process in Libya in order to guarantee the acceptance of the results of the elections by all the parties. He denied that there were disputes with France over Libya, even though the French media has reported that Rome may host an international conference on Libya in the spring as a follow-up to the Paris Summit that will focus on issues pertaining to the political process, security, the economy and humanitarian conditions (including migration), according to the Italian news agency Aki.
Speaking to reporters at the summit, Al-Manfi stressed the need to resolve issues regarding the election law before 24 December, while Al-Dbeiba said the law must be amended in a consensual manner to achieve justice, inclusiveness and equal opportunities for all Libyans.
He stressed the need to hold presidential and legislative elections simultaneously and to involve the government in the 5+5 military negotiations on removing mercenaries, foreign combatants and foreign troops from Libya. This should take place “under the direct supervision of the Libyan state,” he said, confirming his support of national initiatives as the basis for achieving stability in the country.
Dbeiba’s remarks were similar to his address at the summit meeting, confirming that there were disputes among the Western powers regarding the holding of the elections, as noted in the communique. There is disagreement about the election laws and whether to hold the presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously, as was shown in two contradictory texts, one calling for all elections to be held on 24 December and the other noting only that the results will be announced on the same day.
The Libyan opposition might abandon the entire process if political obstruction and a lack of consensus on the rules continue.
The final communique from the summit also ignited debate about the political process in Libya and the need to ask the incoming parliament to focus on drafting a new constitution for the country. The Libyan Constituent Assembly already insists on the validity of its constitutional document and a court ruling protecting it against appeal.
Shortly before the start of the summit, Dbeiba and Al-Manfi met with Macron to coordinate the discussions, according to the French Embassy in Libya. Dbeiba also met with Draghi at the Italian Embassy in Paris to ask for support for his position of postponing the elections and amending the electoral laws. Apparently, there were Italian reassurances, and media reports in Rome said Italy had strongly urged Paris to support Dbeiba’s demands.
A diplomatic source said that at a meeting between British and Italian diplomats, the two sides had agreed to urge France to amend the summit’s final communique to include a section about amending the electoral law and ensuring consensus on it by all the parties. The source said the French Foreign Ministry had withdrawn the communique from its media platforms one hour after it was posted as a result of this understanding among diplomats who want the election law to be amended in order to complete the electoral process.
The source added that the election law will be amended next week, as a result of the understandings reached in Paris. Sources in East Libya said that the speaker of the parliament there was “flexible” and willing to amend the presidential election law to allow Dbeiba to run and in order to avoid obstruction of the political process.
The source did not clarify the reason for the second dispute about simultaneous elections and the date of the presidential and parliamentary elections, which was contradicted in the final communique. Some see 24 December as the date for starting the electoral process and not as the polling day, while others believe the date will be the first round of the presidential elections.
The ongoing bickering did not stop the Libyan National Elections Commission from starting the process by allowing candidates to submit their nominations for the presidential and parliamentary elections and distributing voter cards to citizens across the country. There have been threats to overturn the entire process, especially by forces opposed to the electoral laws in Western Libya.
Nonetheless, by Monday around 500 candidates had submitted their bids for a seat in the upcoming parliament. Three candidates have thrown in their hats for the presidency thus far: Abdel-Hakim Baayou in Tripoli, Seif Al-Islam Muammar Gaddafi in the southern city of Sabha and Eastern Military Commander Khalifa Haftar.
The appearance of Gaddafi and Haftar may trigger unrest and may result in the closure of election offices, possibly leading to a boycott of the elections.
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