Fearful weapons of the Ukraine war

Ahmed Eleiba , Friday 18 Mar 2022

Russia’s war on Ukraine has fomented renewed talk of the possible use of unconventional weapons.

Fearful weapons of the Ukraine war

There has been growing controversy about the possible use of unconventional weapons such as nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons in the Russian war on Ukraine, triggered when Russian President Vladimir Putin issued orders for Russia’s nuclear forces to be placed on high alert on 27 February.

The orders mean the deployment of about 70,000 combatants and the loading of nuclear warheads on missiles in submarines and on railway vehicles. They have raised fears of “nuclear terror” around the globe and renewed debates about the failure of nuclear arms-control agreements to contain such threats.

Although the war in Ukraine still rages on, the fears have been gradually subsiding, however, due to Russian declarations that “readiness” does not necessarily mean “use,” as the latter would mean “the annihilation of human civilisation.”

However, Putin’s orders have been interpreted as a way of showing readiness and of justifying Moscow’s calls on the US to withdraw its nuclear weapons, estimated by international observers at about 150 warheads at six military bases, from five European countries.

Russia sees the presence of these warheads as a form of nuclear proliferation.

The US has reiterated its reassurances that the weapons cannot be used, but it has not addressed Moscow’s demand that they be removed. NATO has asserted that the aim of keeping the weapons in place is to maintain a “balance of strategic deterrence.”

The NATO countries or European powers cannot be expected to abandon this policy when Russia possesses the largest number of nuclear warheads in the world, it said.

Russia has been modernising its nuclear-weapons delivery systems based on a declared policy since 2018, followed by announcements of the capabilities of its Tsirkon and Kinzhal missiles and Tupolev Tu-22 bombers, three of which appeared in Syria in May 2021.

Four days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Tupolev Tu-22 bombers and others were flying over Belarus, though a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defence said they had since returned to their Russian bases.

However, the US Military Watch magazine has reported their presence at the Russian Hmeimim Military Base in Syria as part of manoeuvres coinciding with Russia’s war games in Belarus.

The US has deployed B-52H nuclear bombers at Britain’s Fairford Airbase, indicating that it not only takes the Russian moves seriously, but that it has also begun to take countermeasures.

Fears of the possible Russian readiness to deploy nuclear weapons were revived in Ukraine when Russian forces took control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear reactor in the country on 4 March after a fierce battle between Ukrainian forces and attacking Russian troops.

Russian forces seized control of the Chernobyl nuclear power station at the beginning of the war without much resistance, unlike what took place at Zaporizhzhia.

The battle at Zaporizhzhia was disturbing because some 250 shells were exchanged between the two sides near the largest nuclear reactor in Europe. When it was clear that a potential disaster at Zaporizhzhia had been averted, Russia made allegations that Ukraine wants to acquire nuclear weapons, citing statements made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Council and the country’s alleged desire to return to possessing nuclear-weapons capabilities.

Many observers believe Moscow is making these claims in order to secure political legitimacy for its invasion of its neighbour or to justify taking control of vital sites in Ukraine such as nuclear facilities.

Russia has also made allegations about Ukraine’s possession of biological and chemical weapons as part of a psychological war relying on the fact that these weapons are just as frightening as nuclear ones.

Moscow has accused Washington of operating biological laboratories that pose a serious threat in Ukraine and demanded that the UN Security Council convene as a way of putting the ball in the US’s court.

It has claimed that experiments have taken place with bats carrying the Covid-19 virus and that lethal weapons have been manufactured at laboratories in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa in Ukraine.

Russia raised these concerns even before the war began. In December 2021, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu accused those he called “American mercenaries” of acquiring chemical weapons that could be used to “commit provocations” in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

US and British political and intelligence officials vehemently denied the claims without denying that cooperation was taking place with Ukraine in the scientific field.

The US and UK have also accused Moscow of fabricating propaganda in order to justify preemptively sending chemical and biological weapons to Ukraine.

Western reports have highlighted precedents of Russia using biowarfare in Chechnya and Syria and its use against opponents of the Russian regime such as Sergei Skripal and Alexei Navalny.

US Deputy Ambassador to the UN Richard Mills said that “the Russian Federation has repeatedly spread disinformation regarding Syria’s repeated use of chemical weapons. The recent web of lies that Russia has cast in an attempt to justify the premeditated and unjustified war it has undertaken against Ukraine should clearly show, once and for all, that Russia also cannot be trusted when it talks about chemical weapons in Syria.”

The battle over the issue of unconventional weapons in the Ukraine war became heated at the annual meeting of the US Senate Intelligence Committee on 10 March, when statements were made about how to deter Russia from using such weapons.

CIA Director William Burns said the US chiefs of intelligence “are taking seriously” the threat of a chemical weapons attack in Ukraine. He added that the decision to declassify and release intelligence about such possible moves was a deterrent that unified the global response.

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said that “we do not assess that Ukraine is seeking biological or nuclear weapons, which is propaganda by Russia.”

She said the US intelligence community was “very concerned” and was watching “anything that might happen regarding Russia’s strategic nuclear forces.” She did not point to significant changes that would indicate the potential use of nuclear weapons.

Overall, Russia is oscillating between deterrence and fear-mongering about unconventional weapons, a tactic it has adopted since the start of the Ukraine war.

Most international assessments do not believe Russia would risk activating its nuclear forces, seeing its announcements instead as directed at NATO as future leverage.

NATO understands this and is affirming that it is only taking precautionary defence measures in case the war spills over outside Ukraine in accordance with Article V of the NATO Charter, the assessments say.

Russia has been targeting support to the Ukrainian government coming from across Ukraine’s borders through Lviv, but without going beyond the western border of that region bordering Poland.

The raising of the issue of possible biowarfare in the Ukraine war will remain a source of consternation due to the absence of international institutions in charge of monitoring such weapons. As has been the case in Syria, any use of them will lead to questions regarding the burden of proof and who used what and where.

 

*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 March, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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