In a high-stakes summit having outcomes that will be closely monitored around the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi met in Tehran this week to discuss a UN-backed proposal to resume exports of Ukrainian grain to ease the global food crisis, the nuclear talks between Iran and the West, the conflict in Syria, and shared security and economic concerns.
Putin’s visit to Tehran seeks to show Russia’s ties with regional heavyweights such as Iran and Turkey and to challenge US and European efforts to isolate Moscow amid deteriorating relations in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Both Turkey and Iran also stand to gain from the summit. Erdogan hopes to strengthen his position as a mediator between Moscow and the West. He also wants to bridge the gap with Moscow and Tehran on Syria.
Iran hopes the summit will lead to pressure on the West to return to the nuclear agreement without imposing impossible conditions on Tehran. There are differences between Iran and the West over the removal of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards from the US list of terrorist organisations, for example.
The US and the European countries hope to revive the nuclear agreement sooner rather than later in order to lift the sanctions on Iran and thus pump millions of barrels of Iranian oil into a volatile market.
With oil prices this week reaching more than $100 a barrel, the Western countries are hoping that Iran’s output will lead to lower prices and thus reduce the inflation that threatens the US Biden administration and many European governments.
Polls show a sharp decline in US President Joe Biden’s popularity with the US public due to rising prices and the cost-of-living crisis. The Democratic Party fears that it is heading for a major defeat in the midterm Congressional elections in November.
The eyes of Washington and its European allies will thus be on the outcomes of the Putin, Erdogan, and Raisi summit in Tehran.
Lifting the Russian blockade and getting Ukrainian grain back onto global markets are on the agenda. Last week, UN, Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish officials reached a tentative agreement on aspects of a deal to ensure the export of 22 million tons of desperately needed grain and other agricultural products trapped in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
The summit between Putin and Erdogan could help to clear the remaining hurdles in a major step towards alleviating a food crisis that has sent the prices of vital commodities like wheat and barley soaring.
Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said that Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN would sign a deal this week on a grain-exports corridor after talks in Istanbul. A coordination centre is also to be opened allowing the routing of exports via the Black Sea.
“The discussions with Putin will focus on grain, Syria, and Ukraine,” a senior Turkish official told the Associated Press. “The talks will try to solve the issue of grain exports.”
Putin’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Yuri Ushakov stated that “the issue of Ukrainian grain shipments will be discussed with Erdogan. We are ready to continue work on this track.”
Erdogan has sought to help broker talks on a peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and his meeting with Putin will be an opportunity to explore the terms of the negotiations to restart political talks with Kyiv.
Moscow seems willing to support the Turkish efforts as the Western sanctions against it start to harm the Russian economy.
Turkey has found itself opposed to Russia in the conflicts in Libya and Syria. The two countries are also competing for influence in the South Caucasus, while Turkish combat drones have been supporting the Ukrainian military.
But Turkey has not imposed sanctions on the Kremlin, making it a sorely needed partner for Moscow. Grappling with runaway inflation and a rapidly depreciating currency and dissatisfied public, Turkey’s government is also looking towards the Russian market.
Putin’s schedule includes a meeting with Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and he will seek to use his strategic relationship with Tehran to complicate US plans in the Middle East.
Biden returned from the region without obtaining any Gulf commitments to increase oil production for global markets to lower prices after last week’s Jeddah Summit.
The Tehran meeting also has a symbolic meaning for Putin’s domestic audience, as it shows off Russia’s international clout even as it grows increasingly isolated. The Russian leader has limited his international visits to former Soviet states since the war broke out in Ukraine.
In June, Putin made his first international trip since February when he visited Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, both former members of the USSR and Russian allies.
The Tehran summit will offer Putin the opportunity to deepen ties with Iran, one of Moscow’s allies.
On Tuesday, Russian energy giant Gazprom signed a new development deal worth $40 million with Iran’s state oil company.
Putin is also likely to discuss with senior Iranian officials the acquisition of hundreds of Iranian drones to help Russia in the Ukrainian war. Last week, US officials said Tehran was planning to supply Russia with hundreds of drones for its war in Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Russian officials have visited an airfield in central Iran at least twice to review Tehran’s weapons-capable drones for possible use in Ukraine, according to US officials.
“Iran is the centre of dynamic diplomacy,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian wrote on Twitter, adding that the Tehran summit will “develop economic cooperation, focus on the security of the region via political solutions... and ensure food security.”
Fadahossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian parliament’s influential national security and foreign policy committee, described Russia as Iran’s “most strategic partner.”
Putin’s adviser Ushakov also called Iran “an important partner for Russia.”
“The contact with Khamenei is very important… A trusting dialogue has developed between them [Putin and Khamenei] on the most important issues on the bilateral and international agenda,” he added in a briefing on Monday, saying that the two countries shared “a desire to take their relations to a new level of strategic partnership.”
Putin’s bilateral meeting with Khamenei is important because the latter has the last word on Iran’s strategic, defence and security issues.
The Russian president also held talks with Raisi on issues including Tehran’s nuclear deal, to which Russia is a signatory. The leaders met in Moscow in January and again last month in Turkmenistan.
On the agenda of the Russian, Turkish and Iranian presidents in Tehran are the decade-old conflict in Syria, where Iran and Russia have backed Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s government, while Turkey has supported armed opposition factions.
Russia intervened in the conflict in 2015, pooling efforts with Lebanon’s Hizbullah militants and Iranian forces and using its air power to shore up Al-Assad’s military and ultimately turning the tide in his favour.
Ushakov said the parties would discuss efforts to encourage a political settlement in Syria at the summit, while Erdogan is expected to take up Turkey’s threats of a new military offensive in northern Syria to drive US-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters from its borders.
The operation is part of Turkey’s plans to create a safe zone along its border with Syria that will encourage the voluntary return of Syrian refugees.
Humanitarian issues in Syria have come into focus since Russia used its veto power at the UN Security Council last week to force a restriction on aid deliveries to 4.1 million people in Syria’s rebel-held northwest after six months instead of a year.
The three leaders are expected to meet each other bilaterally as well as together in the context of the Astana Process, a dialogue set up by the three countries to resolve their differences over the future of Syria, where all have military forces but also conflicting interests.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 21 July, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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