Fitch expects real GDP growth of 0.16% for Egypt in 2022; keeps inflation at 13.2%

Doaa A.Moneim , Monday 15 Aug 2022

Fitch Solution has upgraded its projection for Egypt’s real GDP growth in 2022 by 0.16 percent to reach 6.17 percent, up from 6.1 percent predicted in July, according to its monthly economic outlook on MENA.

Tawfiqiya shopping market in downtown Cairo. Ahram Online


Egypt is targeting a 5.5 percent real GDP growth in the current FY2022/23 with a total GDP value amounting to EGP 9.2 trillion, the biggest in the country’s history.

The report kept its predictions for the country’s inflation at 13.2 percent throughout 2022, slightly raising its expectation for the EGP’s trading price against the USD to EGP 19.1, up from EGP 19 expected in July.

Continuing its acceleration since the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in March, Egypt’s headline annual inflation sped up to 14.6 percent in July – more than double the corresponding month in 2021 – up from 13.2 percent in June, while urban annual inflation rose to 13.6 percent, the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistic (CAPMAS) said in August.

Meanwhile, the US dollar trading price against the Egyptian pound has risen by about 17 percent since the onset of the war in Ukraine, reaching EGP 19.1 on Monday.

On a regional level, the report said that the unprecedented high oil prices globally will affect the GCC economies positively.

“We predict that the GCC economic growth will accelerate from 3 percent in 2021 to 6.6 percent in 2022, the highest rate of growth since 2011. A surge in hydrocarbon production and a strong rebound in tourism activity will support the net export countries, which will be the main driver of growth in the UAE, Kuwait and Oman,” according to the report.

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