Brazil’s highest electoral authority, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), has set 30 October as the date for the run-off between incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the second round of the country’s elections.
The leftwing da Silva came out ahead of his far-right rival Bolsonaro in the first round, but just fell short of the 50 per cent threshold needed to win.
The elections are taking place under difficult circumstances. Brazil has experienced a sharp rise in Covid-19 infection and death rates, exacting economic and social tolls. In 2020, the country’s GDP shrank by 4.1 per cent due to the pandemic, aggravating already severe social problems among the country’s population of 212.6 million, 12.8 per cent (or 27 million) of whom live below the poverty line. The unemployment rate topped 14.2 per cent in 2021.
The country was already tense and sharply divided as it went to the polls earlier this month, and the polarisation has grown more acute since the first round in which da Silva won 48.43 per cent of the vote and Bolsonaro 43.20 per cent, performing better than anticipated. On the eve of the elections, opinion polls predicted he would win only 36 per cent of the vote.
The elections are also taking place against bleak regional and international backdrops. The Latin American countries have been reeling under difficult economic conditions, especially Venezuela, where the economic deterioration has pushed large portions of the population into need and driven millions to migrate.
Like other countries of the Global South, the Latin American countries have suffered from the economic and political fallout of the war in Ukraine and the intensifying conflict between the superpowers.
The political setting as a whole in Brazil seemed prepared to welcome back da Silva, both because of the general dissatisfaction with Bolsonaro’s performance during his tenure and the former president’s widespread popularity.
But the polls brought some surprises. Not least were the significant electoral victories achieved by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party in the federal congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections. Contrary to expectations, the Liberal Party overtook Brazil of Hope, or FE Brasil, the electoral alliance led by da Silva’s Workers’ Party, in the Congressional elections.
It won 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 13 seats in the Senate, or a total of 112 seats, which is 23 seats more than FE Brasil. The latter won 79 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and nine seats in the Senate, or a total of 88 seats in Brazil’s bicameral Congress.
But this is not enough for the Liberal Party to pass legislation alone. In the Congressional elections, all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies were contested, while only 27 of the Senate’s 81 seats saw several candidates.
The elections have also been marred by a spike in political violence, claiming many lives. Bolsonaro, whose welfare programme earned him considerable support among the poor, has been accused of actively inciting the violence by smearing opponents and using inflammatory language.
His campaign also tried and to some extent succeeded in undermining his rival’s electoral platform by warning that da Silva’s left-wing policies would set Brazil on the path to economic disaster like Argentina and Venezuela. Such alarmist rhetoric may also have contributed to stirring up the violence against da Silva supporters.
Another surprise this year was the exceptionally low voter turnout. Some 30 million registered voters did not report to the polls, whether due to the highly charged political climate or to widespread disenchantment with the political elites running for office.
It appears that a significant number of Brazilian voters are sceptical about all the contestants. Perhaps they believe that “Lula” is too old to repeat his previous achievements and to respond effectively to the impacts on Brazil from the global economic contraction, the repercussions from the Ukraine war, and other regional and international challenges.
On the other hand, large segments of the electorate want Bolsonaro out. They are particularly angered by his mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic and the consequent record-setting Covid-related death rates in Brazil and by his contribution to the deforestation of the Amazon.
Scientists are worried by the rapid shrinkage of the “planet’s lungs,” which has reached its highest pace in six years. The loss is likely to continue if Bolsonaro wins a second term in office, whereas da Silva has pledged to take firm measures to protect the Amazon rain forest from fires and attrition.
The run-off at the end of October will usher in a new and potentially rockier phase for Brazil regardless of which candidate wins. Given the current economic and political conditions, any administration will have to forge new policy courses domestically and internationally. But the results of the polls could also have a profound impact on Brazil’s democratic system and the future of Brazilian democracy.
Bolsonaro appears to have taken a leaf out of the book of former US president Donald Trump. Ahead of the elections, when he saw himself lagging far behind da Silva in the opinion polls, he began to question the integrity of the electronic voting machines and even the TSE. Many fear that if he loses in the run-off and refuses to recognise the results, this will trigger a revolt among the extreme right.
Analysts believe that a da Silva administration would initiate a major shift in Brazil’s regional and international relations. It would revive regional integration efforts with other Latin American countries, especially left-wing ones which share many of da Silva’s political and ideological outlooks.
They, like him, believe that closer cooperation among the Latin American countries is the key to greater autonomous strength. By contrast, a second Bolsonaro term would most likely deepen Brazil’s regional isolation in view of his frosty relations with that continent’s left-wing leaders.
Meanwhile, the political climate will likely remain fraught until the polls on 30 October and for some time afterwards in view of Bolsonaro’s determination to win at all costs while the Workers’ Party and its allies intensify their drive to usher their candidate into office.
Da Silva, who hails from a working class family and has a large following in the country’s favelas which he helped to lift from extreme poverty during his presidency, had about a five point lead over his main rival in the first round.
But it is still impossible to predict the results of the run-off, especially given how Bolsonaro fared so much better than the opinion polls had predicted. A head-to-head race that will keep Brazilians as well as many foreign observers on tenterhooks until the results are announced can therefore be expected.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 27 October, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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