Israeli President Isaac Herzog assigned the head of the Likud Party and leader of Israel’s right wing Benjamin Netanyahu the forming of the next Israeli government, based on the mandates granted to Netanyahu by Israeli blocs and parties after the Knesset elections in early November.
Netanyahu won the support of 64 Knesset members without competition, due to fractures in the Change Bloc headed by interim Prime Minister and leader of the State Camp Benny Gantz Yair Lapid.
In order to form the government Netanyahu needed 61 votes, which is just under the number of seats won by the right-wing bloc. Nonetheless, this majority puts Netanyahu in a difficult position when it comes to appeasing his right-wing partners, especially since it is near impossible that any of his rivals on the left will agree to join his coalition.
Already, Netanyahu’s talks to form the next cabinet are facing many obstacles due to the preconditions demanded by the far right before they enter into a government coalition. He is also facing serious challenges in convincing the US to accept the presence of some extreme right-wing figures in the new government.
Small right-wing parties are competing with Likud leaders for key cabinet positions, such as the ministries of security and finance, which have been the monopoly of the Likud Party or its allies from outside the right-wing bloc.
According to Israeli reports, radical right-wing parties gave Netanyahu a list of demands during cabinet negotiations. Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of the Religious Zionist Party wants to be appointed to a key ministry, either defence or finance. But Netanyahu is having trouble meeting these demands.
Meanwhile, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Otzmar Yehudit Party, not only wants the Ministry of Interior, but also broad powers that encroach on other ministries, including the Bedouin Communities Development Authority in Israel, which is a very thorny issue for the Arab community.
Smotrich also plans on eliminating civilian administration in the West Bank and subjecting it to Israeli authority, which means imposing direct Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank.
Right-wing parties are imposing their demands as preconditions before agreeing to support Netanyahu’s coalition government, as he tries to conclude consultations on forming a cabinet while postponing controversial issues until this order of business is complete. If even one party withdrew from the coalition, the government would collapse.
Likud officials have indicated that Netanyahu may win the support of an Arab party outside his right-wing bloc, and has started preparing public opinion on the right for this possibility. One of Netanyahu’s dilemmas is that the Religious Zionist Party, with 14 Knesset seats, is making many demands. If it withdraws its support then Netanyahu will never be able to replace it and thus qualify to form a government.
Netanyahu is facing internal challenges to convince those vying for key cabinet positions and ministries of his mission. It will also be a battle to promote the new cabinet to the global community, especially since it includes extremists. Another challenge will be relations with Washington in light of many global crises.
According to The Jerusalem Post, “Biden is not enthusiastic about Netanyahu and the Israeli right. Relations between the two will suffer, similar to when former US president Barack Obama was in power. Iran’s nuclear capabilities will also be the biggest source of tension between Biden and Netanyahu, especially since Washington wants to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement. Netanyahu views this as a potential existential threat to Israel, and is doing his utmost to prevent [the deal]”.
Netanyahu would like to carry out a preemptive military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear programme, and risky operations by the Mossad to impede Iran’s nuclear capabilities. However, he must first obtain the US’s approval.
Ahmed Awad, a political analyst, believes that Washington and Tel Aviv have strong strategic relations. Even though they do not see eye-to-eye on several issues right now, they are able to overcome their differences.
Awad told Al-Ahram Weekly, “Netanyahu will try to put pressure on right-wing parties and key leaders to put out positive messages that reassure the US. He will use the cool relations with Washington and concern over further straining them to force his right-wing allies to accept his conditions.
Nonetheless, Awad did not think that ties between the new government in Israel and the US administration will rupture altogether, but will remain lukewarm especially on the personal level. Biden’s administration realises that Netanyahu is waiting for the Republican Party led by Donald Trump to return to power.
Awad suggested that Netanyahu could potentially play a mediating role in the Ukraine crisis, by taking advantage of his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his promises to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This would add to Netanyahu’s political weight on the global stage, and cause Washington and other capitals to overlook the radical views of some members of the new Israeli government.
Awad asserted that Netanyahu is a master at handling conflicting parties. In the past, he balanced Israel’s relations with China and the US despite the great chasm between the two countries. His political experience will enable him to eliminate internal pressure by various parties inside Israel.
According to some Israeli circles, Netanyahu will use the spectre of the right losing power if they insist on their demands in return for supporting the next government, and the risk of the left-wing returning to power in Israel.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 November, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
Short link: