The Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) has opened the year with the declaration of a two-day general transportation strike on 25-26 January and has also vowed to call further strikes in other crucial sectors.
The purpose of the nationwide strike, which will affect all air, sea, and land transportation, is to protest against government policies towards public sector companies. Although Tunisian President Kais Saied has so far managed to circumvent pressures from the UGTT, the strike and protest actions will turn up the heat on his administration.
Throughout the autumn, periodic protests staged by opposition forces rocked the capital Tunis against the backdrop of the ongoing tug-of-war between the president and his political adversaries.
Opposition political parties and movements such as the Free Constitutional Party and the Tunisia Salvation Front blame Saied and the government of Prime Minister Najla Bouden for the deterioration of the economy and failure to resolve the political polarisation.
The forthcoming strike and the potential wave of strikes to follow are a manifestation of the state of political and economic instability that continues to grip the country.
In an atmosphere charged with mutual recriminations and tensions, it is difficult to predict how the situation will develop. On 3 January, Bouden met with Secretary-General of the UGTT Noureddine Tabboubi and President of the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts (UTICA) Samir Majoul, the local media reported.
However, the talks failed to achieve a breakthrough that could stop the escalating crisis. In December, the UGTT’s assistant secretary-general described the relationship between his union and both the president and the cabinet as “worse than ever”.
This situation is unlikely to change for the moment. On 5 January, the UGTT threatened to escalate its actions if Saied continues to reject dialogue in order to resolve disputes over central economic policy issues.
The Democratic Forum for Labour and Liberties (the FDTL or Ettakatol), the Republican Party, the Democratic Current, the Workers’ Party, and other political and civil forces have called for a demonstration on 14 January, Tunisia’s Revolution Day, to protest against deteriorating living standards in the country and the ongoing political paralysis.
This action, like the UGTT’s declaration of a strike, appears to be intended to demonstrate the ability of these political forces to mobilise the public in order to press their political and economic demands. For the UGTT, the strike will help to drive home the fact that the powerful labour organisation remains a factor to be taken into account in policy decisions.
Some observers believe that the UGTT wants to assert itself as a key player in the framework of a national dialogue. On 5 January, it announced that it was in consultation with the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH) over the launch of a new initiative to find a way out of the crisis.
The initiative seizes on the results of the first round of the legislative elections that were held in December in order to push for a solution in which the UGTT would be a strategic linchpin. The first round, held on 17 December, was marked by a very low voter turnout and was boycotted by most opposition parties.
The UGTT also appears to be taking advantage of the decline in everything from the national currency to healthcare services in Tunisia in order to strengthen its popular legitimacy and regain some of the support it has lost to some opposition parties.
In announcing a strike at this time, the UGTT has reminded Tunisians, as may well have been its intention, that January in Tunisia has historically been the month of strikes and protests ever since the general strike the UGTT called on 26 January 1978.
The famous Bread Revolution in Tunisia erupted on 3 January 1984, and 14 January 2011 marked the end of the revolution that culminated in the overthrow of the regime of former president Zine Al-Abidine bin Ali on that day.
Meanwhile, Saied is set on forging ahead with his roadmap for reforms that he set in motion a year and a half ago. Part of the roadmap involves significant economic structural reforms undertaken in consultation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to obtain a $1.9 billion loan. But the fate of this is still pending.
In mid-October, Tunisia and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia’s economic policies with a 48-month arrangement under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of about $1.9 billion. The final agreement remained subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, which was scheduled to discuss Tunisia’s request in December.
However, the board has twice delayed discussing the request because of “a negative notice issued by its Risk Management Department confirming that Tunisia is on the verge of major political upheavals in the upcoming months,” according to former Tunisian ambassador to Qatar Ahmed Al-Kadidi in a Facebook post.
The strikes and protests in Tunisia are likely to broaden, both geographically and to other economic sectors, which will aggravate economic hardship and political instability. Observers also anticipate growing social unrest due in part to sharp divisions over the government’s economic policies.
A significant segment of society supports the president’s reform programme and many fear the detrimental consequences a waves of strikes could have on the country’s recovery, especially given the negative impact protracted unrest can have on the rankings made by international credit-ratings agencies and the prospects of foreign investment in the country.
Still, the forecast “political upheaval” in Tunisia is not inevitable. Much depends on Saied’s and Bouden’s ability to contain the effects of the strikes, respond to the protesters’ demands, and effectively address the current risks and challenges.
Saied has already taken steps in this direction, reaching out to union organisations and calling for a national dialogue. But while he has extended his hand to those who are willing to work with him, he is also prepared to respond firmly to all those whom he describes as having designs to tear down the Tunisian state and its institutions.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 January, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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