Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are manoeuvring to generate electoral conditions geared to their aims. They want to sweep the rug from beneath the feet of the opposition parties, which have been gathering momentum since they came together under a single banner called the Table of Six and agreed on a joint presidential candidate, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The competition has been intensifying in the lead up to the polls on 14 May in which the opposition appears to stand a solid chance at ending over two decades of AKP rule.

In addition to energising support among its constituent parties, the Table of Six has received a major boost from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which announced in March that it would not field a candidate for the presidency. Instead, HDP Co-Chair Pervin Buldan announced, her party would back the Table of Six candidate,  Kilicdaroglu, as part of its ongoing struggle, in league with the opposition, against the policies of the AKP government.

The state of the Turkish economy and declining standards of living have been among the foremost factors to have caused Erdogan’s and the AKP’s declining popularity. Last year, inflation climbed to 79.6 per cent, the highest rate in the world, and employment rose to 9.6 per cent. The dual earthquakes that struck southwestern Turkey on 6 February aggravated the economic crisis, but its repercussions went further. On 14 February, President Erdogan described the Kahraman earthquake as the “worst natural disaster of the 21st century.” The opposition hit back with stinging criticisms of the government’s performance in handling the aftermath of the tragedy and accusations of negligence for not having taken the necessary construction and other precautions ahead of the disaster.

Never before has President Erdogan personally faced such stiff competition. In the last general elections, even as his party’s fortunes declined in the polls, he continued to hold a strong lead over opposition candidates. This time around, the situation is reversed. In mid-March, surveys conducted by three major Turkish polling companies, ORC, MAK and Avrasya, gave Kilicdaroglu a 10.8 per cent, four per cent and 13.8 per cent lead, respectively, over Erdogan.

Desperate to reverse the slide in his and the ruling party’s popularity, Erdogan and his government have stepped up electoral promises and economic incentives to win back voters. These include a 55 per cent hike in the minimum wage as well as salary and pension raises for civil service employees, a 15 per cent cut in both domestic and industrial electricity rates, a 20 per cent cut in domestic natural gas prices, and a reduction in the tax on imported mobile phones.

Naturally, he had to show progress on humanitarian relief and reconstruction in the area struck by the recent quakes. On 30 March, he announced the start of the construction of 28,000 homes in that area, some of which would be completed by summer, he said. He also pledged to offer compensation of TL100,000 for every missing person, to allocate TL100 billion to enhancing first response action in earthquake zones, and to assign 250,000 government workers to assist in clearing the damage from the earthquakes. In addition, to appease the public and stem criticisms from the opposition, the government has launched an investigation into construction contractors suspected of the building code violations that allegedly led to the collapse of some buildings.

Government affiliated news outlets have been giving more and more “breaking news” coverage to Erdogan and members of his cabinet. Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Donmez announced that the recently discovered Sakarya 1 natural gas field in the Black Sea will enter the pumping stage at the end of Ramadan. “The Turkish people will have not one feast day but two,” Erdogan said, referring to the Eid Al-Fitr and the gas extraction. He seized the occasion to herald “more good news” such as the return of Gulf money to Turkey in the form of investments and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promise to turn Turkey into a hub for Russian natural gas exports.

Also coming under the heading of “achievements” that Erdogan boasts of in electoral seasons is the progress in the Turkish defence industry. In mid-March Erdogan made a widely publicised visit  to the defence manufacturer Baykar Technology, which produces the Bayraktar drones that have acquired an international reputation in recent years for their successes in combat zones. Then, on 18 March, President of the Defence Industry Agency Ismail Demir announced the start of ground tests for the “Hurjit” jet trainer and the head of Aselsan Electronics Industries unveiled its new SIPER missile defence system.

In like manner, in mid-March Erdogan launched a national lottery to select those who will receive first dibs on purchasing Turkey’s first domestically produced electronic vehicle (EV). Erdogan himself has already taken a test drive in Togg T10X luxury SUV, one of 5 EV models that he envisions will transform Turkey into a global automobile manufacturing hub.

Turkey has invested heavily in defence and high tech industries. In showcasing products such as the foregoing, Erdogan is driving home the message that his government has set Turkey on the path to becoming a worldwide leader in these sectors. The implied corollary is that these are the industries that will lead the country out of its current economic straits and improve living standards — if people vote for Erdogan and the AKP on 14 May. But this time round it looks like it will take much more than pledges and promises to revive the flagging popular confidence in his and his party’s leadership as they approach the most decisive polls since they came to power just over 20 years ago.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 April, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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