The fighting in Sudan is in its fourth week, and there is no end in sight to the violence. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have agreed to several ceasefire agreements, none of which have materialised. The SAF and RSF have accused each other of breaching the truces.
The RSF is primarily comprised of the Janjaweed militias, which were accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Darfur war. Toppled former Sudanese president Omar Al-Bashir transformed the Janjaweed into paramilitary militias under his direct command.
According to the Sudanese Doctors Syndicate, the near one-month-old conflict has now resulted in the deaths of more than 700 people and the injury of over 6,500, the majority of whom are in critical condition. Many hospitals in Khartoum are out of service, some due to the fighting and others even before the war broke out on 15 April.
Sudan has a population of 50 million, and its vast lands make it the third-largest African country. There have been various regional and international efforts to stop the war.
The latest of these was by Saudi Arabia and the US, which have sponsored talks in Jeddah on the Red Sea and in close proximity to Sudan’s main port of Port Sudan.
In tandem, the Arab League formed a committee comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Abul-Gheit to coordinate between the Sudanese parties and the international community in order to prevent Sudan’s state institutions from crumbling, head off any international intervention, allow humanitarian relief efforts, and, of course, discuss the main demand, which is a ceasefire.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Soukri headed to Chad and South Sudan to discuss the Sudan crisis with the governments of these countries, which are fearful that the conflict in Sudan may spread.
Many observers are trying to figure out which Sudanese side the neighbouring countries are siding with.
“The US has no direct economic or political interests in Sudan, but it has real strategic interests that are a cause of concern to Washington,” said Mohamed Youssef Wardi, a Sudanese journalist based in Washington.
“The US has no investments or forces in Sudan, but it refuses to allow the Russians or the Chinese to control Khartoum,” he added. “Sudan has the third-largest uranium and gold reserves in Africa. Washington does not want to see these resources in Moscow’s hands.”
Khartoum and Moscow have agreed to establish a Russian naval base on the Sudanese coastline on the Red Sea. Western reports say that the Russian military Wagner Group has cooperated with RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, to protect the gold mines in Darfur in the far west of Sudan.
“If Russia enters Sudan and exercises its influence, it will be accompanied by China. This complicates matters further for the US,” Wardi said.
China contributed to the construction of Sudan’s Merowe Dam, almost the only development project in the country during the rule of Al-Bashir. The dam located on the Nile is used to generate electricity in north Sudan.
Since the fall of Al-Bashir and the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood that supported him in 2019, Russia has been providing the Sudanese army with weapons such as Sukhoi aircraft, Wardi said.
“The US does not wish to see the Islamists back in power in Sudan, but it will not take sides with one party against the other. It will also not adopt a different position from that of the EU, which is extremely concerned about events in Sudan.”
“Russia has learned from China the policy of give and take, which Beijing has been practising for two decades now. Moscow no longer grants aid just to obtain support, as was the case during the Cold War,” said Ahmed Al-Khamisi, a commentator on Russia for the Arab media for the past three decades.
Al-Khamisi, the author of a large number of books on Russia, said that “Moscow wants to have a window on one of the most important international trade routes, which is the Red Sea, in exchange for giving weapons and wheat to Khartoum.”
The Red Sea is a key route for international trade, with $700 billion worth of trade passing through it. Port Sudan is one of the largest African ports south of the Sahara. It is not only an outlet for Sudan, but also for Ethiopia, South Sudan, and products from Chad and the Central African Republic.
Nearby Eritrea was one of only four countries that announced their support for Moscow in its war on Ukraine. But Al-Khamisi said that “Sudan is strategically more important than Eritrea, and its population and resources are more beneficial to Moscow.”
“The Sudan coastline has more ports, such as Suakin and the oil-exporting Bashayer port, in addition to Port Sudan, which has a large number of specialised berths.”
“Eritrea is still at war, while Sudan was peaceful before the outbreak of the present conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, Sudan will be better for Russian interests.”
Eritrea voted against the UN General Assembly Resolution condemning the Russian war on Ukraine, along with Belarus, Syria, and North Korea.
“Russia and China do not want to see the return of the Islamists to power in Sudan, which means they could side with the SAF, but this is not confirmed,” Al-Khamisi said.
“The two countries will not arm Sudan and will not interfere in the conflict, but their hearts are with the legitimate institutions.”
“In Europe, there is a different view on Sudan,” said Walid Sayed Ahmed, a Sudanese researcher based in London. “France does not want the RSF [in control in Sudan] because the militia is sabotaging its military operations in the African Sahel, such as in Chad, Niger, Mauritania, and Burkina Faso.”
Mali’s military, which ascended to power in a military coup, expelled French forces from the country during their rapprochement with Russia, despite the agreement between Russia and Europe on the war against terrorist groups in the African Sahel.
“The French and their allies in Chad believe that the Janjaweed and the RSF are supporting the opposition tribes in Chad that killed former Chadian president Idris Déby,” Ahmed added.
Déby was killed while fighting against rebels in northern Chad, most of whom hailed from Arab tribes close to their counterparts in Sudan.
The RSF militia also participated in some battles in the Libyan Civil War, which was “not to the liking of France and Europe,” Ahmed noted, referring to Libya’s importance on the illegal immigration and oil fronts.
“The French fear the RSF’s rapprochement with the Islamists in Central Africa, which is politically fragile and its security is compromised,” Ahmed added. “However, France will not intervene militarily in the conflict, which raises fears that the Chadian army will intervene against the RSF in the future.”
Al-Bashir used the RSF to storm the Chadian capital N’Djamena in 2006 and 2008. Hundreds of people were killed in the attacks, which France helped Chad fend off.
In return, Chad supported the armed Justice and Equality Movement in Sudan and fought against Al-Bashir in the conflict in Omdurman, the western part of the capital, in 2008, when hundreds were killed.
“The situation has not changed much since then. The fighting could be revived due to the flow of refugees from Darfur to Chad. This is when the situation will be blown out of all proportion,” Ahmed said.
A version of this article appears in print in the 11 May, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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