File Photo: Egypt s Minister of Planning and Economic Development Hala Helmy el-Said. AFP
The minister detailed four methods to achieve this objective, which include remittances, non-oil merchandise exports, foreign direct investments (FDIs), and revenue generated by the Suez Canal.
Around $31 billion of the target is projected to come from remittances sent by Egyptian expatriates.
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) reported a 23 percent decrease in remittances, in H1 of 2022/23 recording $12 billion compared to the previous year.
The government's objective is to secure roughly $11 billion in FDIs, with FDIs totaling approximately $5.7 billion in H1 of 2022/23, according to data.
The Suez Canal's revenue
The minister stated that revenue from the Suez Canal is expected to provide $9 billion towards the target.
Egypt's transport receipts increased to $6.8 billion from about $4.7 billion in the same period of the previous FY, with Suez Canal transit fees rising by 17.8 percent YoY to roughly $4 billion from July to December 2022.
The government's target for FY 2023/24 is to achieve $32 billion in non-oil merchandise exports.
Non-oil merchandise exports, including gold and phosphate/mineral fertilizers, increased by $124.8 million YoY due to various export items.
The government's plan for FY 2023/24 involves targeting a GDP of EGP 11.84 trillion ($383.1 billion) and a GDP growth rate of 4.1 percent.
The African Economic Outlook 2023 forecasts that Egypt's GDP growth will increase to 4.8 percent in FY 2023/24, up from 4.4 percent in the current FY.
The WB downgraded its projections for Egypt's real GDP growth in FY 2022/23 and FY 2023/24 to 4 percent, down from the 4.5 percent forecasted in December 2022, while the IMF revised its predictions for 2023 to 3.7 percent from 4.4 percent and for 2024 to 5 percent from 5.3 percent.
Unemployment & inflation
El-Said reported that the budget anticipates an unemployment rate of 7.3-7.6 percent and an average inflation rate of 16 percent.
According to CAPMAS, the unemployment rate dipped slightly to 7.1 percent in Q1 of 2023, down from 7.2 percent in Q4 of 2022.
CAPMAS' data indicated that while the annual headline inflation decreased to 31.5 percent in April, down from 33.9 percent in March, marking the first monthly deceleration in 10 months, it is still significantly higher compared to the 14.9 percent recorded in April 2022.
Mohamed Maait, Minister of Finance, presented the highlights of the FY 2023/24 draft budget to the House of Representatives in May, which included a projected deficit of 6.9 percent of the GDP.