Former US president Donald Trump, a potential presidential candidate for the 2024 election, has been hit with an unprecedented federal indictment. This could lead to him facing trial in Florida on numerous counts related to his retention of classified government records. It is the second indictment he faces. The first, prosecuted in New York in April, did not involve a federal offence, however. It involved him paying $130,000 in hush money to the pornographic film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. In this unprecedented federal case, the documents that Trump kept after leaving the White House on 20 January 2021 reportedly contain information related to the defence capacities and arsenals of the US and other countries, US nuclear programmes, plans to respond to a foreign attack, and possible vulnerabilities in the defences of the United States and its allies.
After several months of an investigation led by US Federal Prosecutor Jack Smith, it was determined that there were grounds to prosecute the former president for wilfully retaining hundreds of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, obstructing justice, providing false testimony, and conspiracy. In total, Trump faces 37 felony charges, 31 of which fall under the Espionage Act of 1917. Any one of these, if proven, could bring about serious penalties, including prison. Under a law passed in 1978, US presidents must send their correspondence, emails, and other work-related documents to the National Archive. Another provision, under the Espionage Act, prohibits the retention of classified documents in unauthorised and unsafe places. Previously, Trump had defended his retention of the documents on the grounds that he had declassified them while still president, although he was unable to furnish evidence to substantiate this claim.
In addition to the multiple criminal charges he has faced so far, there is a strong likelihood that more cases will be brought against him. One is related to whether he had illegally attempted to meddle in the election results in Georgia, in 2020, which handed Joe Biden a narrow win in that state. Another involves his role in the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building while lawmakers were ratifying the results of the 2024 Electoral College vote that declared the Democratic candidate the winner. But the more immediate question is how all this will affect Trump’s presidential bid.
There is a strong possibility that all this legal attention will improve Trump’s electoral prospects as it casts him back into the limelight in the media. Trump is a firm believer that all news about him, whether good or bad, is good publicity and will only strengthen his popularity among his base. While the media is focused on the legal developments, the former president has called on his supporters to contribute to his campaign, and the donations have already been considerable. In his speeches to supporters, Trump plays on the theme of a judicial witch hunt, claiming that the Democrats’ public prosecutors will dig up new charges and that Biden, who will be running for a second term, has weaponised the Justice Department against him. All this is to keep him out of the race, Trump says, because the Democrats fear that he will be the Republican candidate with the best chances for beating Biden.
Even though Republicans have been considering alternative candidates, many came out in support of him after the second indictment. There is a near consensus among Republicans that the indictments are entirely politically motivated and constitute a flagrant abuse of the power on the part of the public prosecutor and a campaign of political vindictiveness. They also accuse the Biden White House of weaponising the Department of Justice for political ends. Even the Republican hopefuls who have announced their bids for their Republican nomination have rallied around Trump in the face of the indictments. The current governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, condemned the indictment of Trump and the “weaponisation of federal law enforcement” in a tweet.
A significant number of Republicans, albeit a minority, have openly stated their view that Trump would not be the best candidate for the Republicans and that nominating him would harm the Republican Party’s chances of winning a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate in the Congressional elections of 2024. Some members of the Republican establishment believe that a main reason why the Republicans were unable to take the Senate and won only a small majority in the House in the midterm Congressional elections in 2022 was Trump’s constant harping on how the presidential election of 2020 was “stolen” from him and his support for candidates who backed his claim.
Despite the many criminal allegations against him, Trump still enjoys widespread popularity among Republican voters. He has an especially loyal base of millions who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 and he continues to poll ahead of his rivals in the Republican Party. Recent surveys have given Trump a 30-point lead over the next potential candidate, DeSantis, who was supported by 20 per cent of those polled. The governor of Florida, former vice president Mike Pence and other Republican candidates seem to lack the type of charisma that has enabled Trump to hold onto his base, where it is not doubted for a second that he is the victim of a conspiracy and that the recent indictment is politically motivated.
Under US law, there is nothing to bar Trump from running for office again while facing trial or even if convicted. The only exception might be if he were found guilty of having engaged in insurrection or rebellion after having taken an oath to support the constitution. Nevertheless, if convicted, he would find it challenging to campaign and, if elected, to run the country from behind bars. The federal indictment against Trump, the strongest Republican candidate for the 2024 election, was handed down at a critical moment for the Republican Party, which faces a very difficult choice. Will it rally behind Trump, who still claims that the 2020 election was rigged and who is likely to face more indictments before November 2024? Or can the Republicans groom a new candidate able to beat Trump in the primaries and eventually to defeat the incumbent president who seeks a second term in office?
What is certain is that whoever that candidate is, they would have to be able to win over Trump’s electoral base.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 June, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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