Israel has accused Hizbullah of seeking to drag it into a new war, and warned of the harm this would cause Lebanon. Israeli security and military circles have also warned that failure to respond to provocations would erode Israeli deterrence in the face of Hizbullah, which receives unlimited funding and support from Iran.
Tension on the border began in April when some 34 rockets were fired on Israel in response to security tensions in Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque. At the time, Israel suggested that the rockets were fired by the Palestinian Hamas, under cover from Hizbullah. Israel responded by bombing sites it claimed to be Hamas infrastructure in the Lebanese city of Sidon, but did not target any Hizbullah sites.
Israel viewed this escalation as a breach of the calm it had enjoyed on the Hizbullah front for 16 years, and its response was low key to avoid a confrontation.
Escalation grew on the border between Hizbullah and Israel with intermittent firing of rockets, skirmishes and breaches on the border, and reached a climax with Hizbullah setting up a military camp to monitor the activities of the Israeli army and sabotage the security wall the Israeli forces are building.
The camp was erected in the Shebaa Farms area, which Israel claims as its own, while Hizbullah and Lebanon view as occupied land. The US, France and UNIFIL forces on the border between the two countries attempted to convey messages between the two sides to prevent the situation from exploding into war.
On 12 July, the Israeli army stated that it thwarted an attempt to sabotage the security wall on the border with Lebanon, and used a stun grenade for the first time against Hizbullah elements, wounding three of them.
These developments, which Israel views as organised and systematic action, increased the possibility of escalation between Hizbullah and Israel, despite both sides declaring they do not wish to escalate.
In recent months, the Israeli army has conducted massive military exercises that simulate a new round of fighting with Hizbullah, including scenarios the army has never faced before on the battlefield. The US participated in some of them.
Israeli reports indicate that one of the scenarios that Israel is preparing for is fighting against a Hizbullah force that could cross the Lebanese border into Israeli territory, and try to temporarily occupy an open area near the border.
In May, Hizbullah conducted its own military exercises using live ammunition that simulated storming and infiltrating cities in northern Israel, which Israel is seriously looking at.
According to Israeli estimates, Hizbullah is working under Iran’s directives to exploit the internal situation in Israel and protests against the government coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Roy Ben-Yishai, a military analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the aim is to weaken the Israeli army and direct limited strikes against it.
This week the newspaper quoted Israeli officials as saying: “On Sunday, Tel Aviv sent a message to Hizbullah warning that provocations along the border could lead to a new military confrontation.”
According to Israeli officials, “the political instability in Lebanon may prompt Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to divert public attention to a conflict with Israel.”
Despite attempts by some Israeli officials to de-escalate with Hizbullah, there are demands in Israel for a stronger military response to Hizbullah’s provocations on the border, as Hizbullah attempts to redraw the rules of engagement.
“Hizbullah will respond to any Israeli aggression on the camp built at the border in southern Lebanon,” Nasrallah declared. “We will not remain silent about Israel’s occupation of the border village of Ghajar.”
According to Ben-Yishai, Tel Aviv believes Nasrallah intends to stage a short battle against Israel that will last for several days, due to the political and economic impasse in Lebanon. He added that Hizbullah believes such a battle could improve the group’s standing on the domestic scene in Lebanon.
Israeli assessments also indicate that Hizbullah is working on sabotaging the security fence project that Israel is building along the border with Lebanon, to prevent or at least slow down the infiltration of Hizbullah special forces into Israel during any major battle in the future.
“Security tensions on the Lebanese-Israeli border could be a precursor to a major military development between Hizbullah and the Israeli army soon,” explained the analyst Talal Okal, indicating that this is at the behest of Iran.
He told Al-Ahram Weekly, “the Iranian-Israeli conflict fuels the possibility of a military confrontation on the border with Lebanon.” Okal added that “a military confrontation will be the strategic choice of Hizbullah and the Israeli army, despite the crises in Beirut and Tel Aviv.” He further stressed that the possibility of a fierce military confrontation is becoming more likely by the day.
Israel, which is facing a major political crisis caused by the chaos resulting from demonstrations opposing the government’s judicial reform plan, is hesitant in resorting to a large-scale war against Hizbullah. However, political and security circles do not want Tel Aviv’s silence on Hizbullah to become an asset in the hands of Netanyahu’s opponents and show up the government as weak.
The domestic crisis faced by Netanyahu’s coalition government and the extremist voices of his right-wing partners may push military confrontation firmly to the top of the list of options, especially since Israel wants to ensure that Hizbullah’s capabilities are neutralised in any future military confrontation with Iran.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 July, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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