As peace initiatives intended to end the ongoing conflict in Sudan waver, their capacity to influence the country’s trajectory towards a solution to the crisis is diminishing.

Earlier there had been hopes that the initiatives would halt the brutal and ruinous war that has been ravaging Sudan for the past five months.

However, today the pervasive violence, thunderous sound of aircraft, and the sight of people dying under bombs and shells across Sudan have cast shadows over any prospect of halting the bloodshed and achieving a peaceful resolution soon that could extract the nation from its profound deadlock.

“We fear the crisis in the country might change into an enduring predicament,” several Sudanese nationals said.

“The international community seems to be neglecting the crisis. It should exert pressure on the Sudanese Armed Forces [SAF] and the Rapid Support Forces [RSF] to engage in negotiations. Meanwhile, the entire nation is engulfed in conflict.”

They said that a tide of violence is progressively inundating Sudan, with the ongoing crisis in Niger now also eclipsing their own country’s turmoil.

A protracted civil war is a horrifying scenario for millions of Sudanese who have been either besieged, displaced, made homeless, or made to seek refuge as a result. Many say they did not expect a long and brutal war even in their worst nightmares.

During the first days of the crisis, many people in Sudan hoped that the war would end quickly and the refugees would be able to return home. Now, however, memories of previous lives are covered with gunpowder and decomposing corpses.

The cycle of death and devastation persists unabated in Khartoum as each faction strives to emerge victorious. The conflict also rages in every corner of the Darfur region from Geneina to Fasher, Nyala, Zalingei and beyond. The cities of the Kordofan and Blue Nile Provinces are similarly engulfed in the unyielding grip of conflict.

These regions have been transformed into battlefields where the conflict between the SAF and RSF has taken on tribal, ethnic, and regional dimensions. Governor of Darfur Mona Arko Minawi said the situation in Nyala, the capital of West Darfur, was “catastrophic”.

The fighting has led to numerous fatalities and hundreds of injuries, overwhelming local hospitals.

The conflict has also intensified mobilisation efforts by both warring parties among their supporters. Thousands of young men have joined the SAF, and a recruitment camp for girls was recently established in the River Nile Province.

Joining the ranks of the RSF in Darfur are the Sudan Shield Forces led by Abu Aklah Kikel in Al-Butana. The Al-Butana region extends from Gezira in the north to Qadaref in the northeast on the border with Ethiopia. Darfur’s Tamazuj group has also joined the RSF.

Various tribal groups have declared their support for both parties. However, Justice and Equality forces led by Jibril Ibrahim, the Sudanese Minister of Finance, have seen divisions, and four prominent leaders were relieved of their duties following news of a meeting with second-in-command of the RSF Abdel-Rahim Dagalo.

Abdel-Aziz Al-Hilu continues to lead the Sudan Liberation Movement in its battle against the SAF in South Kordofan.

There are now multiple signs that the conflict is expanding to other regions in Sudan. Arms and suspicious movements are being detected in the northern province of Gezira and eastern Sudan. RSF affiliates have issued threats to expand the conflict to wherever remnants of ousted former Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir’s regime may be found, particularly among the country’s Islamist factions.

These are concentrated in eastern Sudan and are involved in rallying support for the SAF.

Youssef Ezzat, an RSF advisor, said it was possible that the RSF might attack areas where young people are joining SAF ranks. As the conflict persists, the RSF may alter their strategy to target safe areas that serve as bases for mobilisation in support of the SAF, such as the northern regions, the Nile River areas, and the eastern states, he added, accusing Islamists associated with the former regime of orchestrating the mobilisation.

In the meantime, humanitarian conditions in Sudan are plummeting. The country’s healthcare system is falling apart, and many necessary food and medical supplies have diminished in quantity. The international community has failed not only to help stop the conflict in Sudan, but has also fallen drastically short in providing critical humanitarian assistance as well.

Secretary-General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Jagan Chapagain has urged the international community to allocate more funding to aid Sudan. He said his organisation had received only seven per cent of the $45 million it had appealed for to support the Sudanese people.

The UN children’s agency UNICEF has reported that 14 million children in Sudan are in dire need of life-saving assistance, with only 10 per cent of them currently being reached. Nearly half of Sudan’s children are facing the threat of death due to the scarcity of essentials such as food, access to medical facilities, and a secure environment, the UN agency added.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has stated that the situation in Sudan is “catastrophic,” revealing that over two-thirds of the nation’s hospitals are inoperable, compounded by a surge in attacks on healthcare facilities.

Dozens of Sudanese women have experienced sexual violence, according to a report by international rights group Amnesty International.

Amidst all these challenges, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has warned that Sudan may also become a sanctuary for terrorist groups. Abebe Muluneh, Director of the IGAD’s Security Sector Programme, said that terrorist organisations might exploit Sudan’s instability if a resolution to the conflict is not found.

Meanwhile, millions of Sudanese are hoping the international community will take more tangible action to put pressure on the warring factions to end the conflict. The main demand of the Sudanese people remains peace in order to save Sudan, uphold its sovereignty, and safeguard its future.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 24 August, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly