Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning a long war in Gaza in order to achieve his objective of “wiping out” Hamas, a broad and vague goal that gives him a large margin of manoeuvre and plenty of time.
A long war suits Netanyahu for at least four reasons.
First, he wants to prolong the war and not set more precise goals in order to avoid accountability in the event that the aims he seeks are not achieved.
Second, a long war could enable Netanyahu to significantly weaken Hamas’ capabilities and destroy its infrastructure and military abilities without risking major losses among the Israeli forces.
Third, a long war will put enormous humanitarian pressure on Palestinian civilians, forcing more to flee from the north to the south of Gaza on the border with Egypt and allowing the Israeli government to expel more Palestinians from northern Gaza and create a buffer zone inside Gaza to serve as Israel’s first line of defence.
Fourth, a long war suits Netanyahu politically after the earlier crisis of restructuring the Israeli Supreme Court. The war with Hamas has become a political lifeline for Netanyahu, as the demonstrations against him in Israel have died out and he has formed an emergency government with the country’s opposition parties.
However, a long war in Gaza may not be in the interest of Washington and the Biden administration.
The longer the war lasts, the more unpredictable will be its consequences, most notably the possibility of expanding its scope and the entry of other parties, among them Iran and its allies.
This scenario may force the US to enter the conflict, an outcome that Biden does not want because of its potentially disastrous effects on the Middle East and global security.
A long war could also destroy any progress made by Washington in its efforts to normalise relations between Israel and the Arab countries, putting a nail in the coffin of Biden’s claims that the Middle East is about to enter a new era of cooperation.
Republican Party presidential election candidates in the US are already criticising Biden’s foreign policy, claiming that it has inflamed the region and threatens the US.
A long war in Gaza will also shift world attention from Russia and Ukraine to the Middle East after the Biden administration spent enormous sums supporting Ukraine and attempting to defeat Russia.
What Biden certainly does not want is to enter the US election season with two ongoing wars without a resolution.
There is also an economic downside to the conflict. The World Bank has warned that the Gaza war, if prolonged, could raise oil prices to $150 per barrel. This will be bad news for Biden, as high oil prices will mean a return of inflation, a slowdown in growth, and an increase in Russia’s revenues from oil sales, thus enhancing its capacities in the now stalemated war against Ukraine.
Despite the risks to the US and Biden, the administration is struggling to formulate a coherent policy in the crisis and the region.
Evidence of its muddling came in two press releases issued three minutes apart by the White House on Sunday as readouts to telephone conversations between the US president and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and Netanyahu.
The first readout to the conversation between President Al-Sisi and Biden focused on regional stability and the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The White House noted that “the two leaders committed to the significant acceleration and increase of assistance flowing into Gaza beginning today and then continuously.”
“They also discussed the importance of protecting civilian lives, respect for international humanitarian law, and ensuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation,” the White House said.
Biden also briefed Al-Sisi on efforts “to ensure that regional actors do not expand the conflict in Gaza and also on continuing efforts to secure the release of hostages.”
“President Biden and President Al-Sisi affirmed their commitment to work together to set the conditions for a durable and sustainable peace in the Middle East to include the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
The call with Netanyahu was very different and reflected the difficulty facing Biden in shaping a consistent policy regarding the war in Gaza.
“The president reiterated that Israel has every right and responsibility to defend its citizens from terrorism and underscored the need to do so in a manner consistent with international humanitarian law that prioritises the protection of civilians,” the White House said in its press statement.
The readout noted that the two leaders had discussed continuing efforts to locate and secure the release of the hostages taken by Hamas during its attack on Israel on 7 October.
“The president underscored the need to immediately and significantly increase the flow of humanitarian assistance to meet the needs of civilians in Gaza,” the White House said. The words Palestine and the Palestinians were not mentioned in the readout to the conversation between Biden and Netanyahu.
Also missing was any talk about the establishment of a Palestinian state or ensuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation or setting the conditions for a durable and sustainable peace in the Middle East, all the focus of the phone call between Biden and the Egyptian president.
Because of these discrepancies, there is not much optimism about Washington’s ability to play a constructive role in ending the war in Gaza and finding ways to stop the violence, not to mention laying the political foundations for a just and long-term solution.
Among European diplomats, there is already restlessness because of Israel’s non-stop bombardment of civilians in Gaza and uneasiness at granting Israel a green light after the 7 October attacks to respond in any way it deems appropriate without properly emphasising the rule of international law.
Head of the UN Palestinian Relief Agency UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini, who is seeking an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the conflict, did not mince his words when he accused Israel of the “collective punishment” of the people of Gaza and of forcing their displacement from the north of the territory to the south.
“My UNRWA colleagues are the only glimmer of hope for the entire Gaza Strip… but they are also running out of fuel, water, food and medicine and will soon be unable to operate,” Lazzarini said on Monday.
“Most of the people of Gaza feel abandoned. They feel the world is equating all of them with Hamas. This is dangerous – an entire population is being dehumanised,” he said.
Although the language of statements issued by many Western capitals in the last few days has changed to focus on the necessity of respecting international law and protecting Palestinian civilians, many European diplomats believe that these statements are meant to take the moral high ground but lack the tools to pressure Israel to respect international law.
Biden’s political record regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict also does not reassure US allies about his ability to bring about a ceasefire.
The present US president is one of the few who did not talk about Middle East peace during his election campaign. Since he was elected, he has not discussed the two-state solution and has not put pressure on Israel on the expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem or on other measures used to expel the Palestinians from their land.
Instead, Biden has sought during recent months to intensify his diplomatic activity in the region in order to accelerate the pace of normalisation between Israel and some Arab countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, without linking this to a political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Some EU diplomats believe the Biden administration bears part of the responsibility for the current volatile situation in the Middle East, which may become yet more heated in the event of a long war due to Biden’s flawed foreign policy.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 2 November, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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