Egypt lowers GDP growth projection for FY 2023/24 to 3.5%: Planning minister

Ahram Online , Monday 4 Dec 2023

Egypt has revised down its growth projection for FY 2023/2024 to 3.5 percent, Hala El-Said, minister of planning and economic development, said on Monday.

File Photo: Minister of Planning and Economic Development, Hala El-Said. (Photo: Al-Ahram)
File Photo: Minister of Planning and Economic Development, Hala El-Said. (Photo: Al-Ahram)


The figure is 0.7 percent lower than El-Said's forecasts in November.

El-Said attributed the downward revision to a series of external shocks and disturbances, including geopolitical tensions and global crises, such as "the impact of the Israeli war on Gaza,” El-Said added during an interview with CNBC Arabia.

She noted that the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war led to a decline in Egypt's economic growth rate during FY 2022/2023 to record 3.8 percent, down from the targeted 5.2 percent.

In October, the World Bank (WB) revised its growth forecasts for Egypt, raising the projection for real GDP growth in 2023 to 4.2 percent, up from four percent.

However, the WB downgraded the country's growth forecast for 2024 to 3.7 percent, down from four percent.

Following suit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted its predictions, increasing Egypt's real GDP growth projection for 2023 to 4.2 percent from 3.7 percent, while lowering the forecast for 2024 to 3.6 percent from 4.1 percent.

Egypt aims to achieve a primary surplus of 2.5 percent of GDP, estimating that inflation would hover around 16 percent, Mohamed Maait, Minister of Finance, said in March.

Maait also projected a 38.4 percent increase in revenues, with tax revenues expected to rise by 28 percent through measures such as expanding the tax base, registering new taxpayers, and implementing legislative and administrative amendments.

Additionally, the budget for FY 2023/2024 includes a 28 percent increase in subsidy allocations, particularly a 24 percent rise in fuel subsidies to support exports.

IPO programme

During her speech, El-Said emphasized that the government plans to finalize the sale of stakes in seven state-owned hotels before the end of 2023.

Egypt intends to offer stakes in state-owned Chill Out fuel stations to strategic investors during the first quarter of 2024, she added.

El-Said acknowledged that the deal to sell state-owned petrochemical companies and Wataniya fuel stations will be delayed a few weeks beyond its scheduled date at the end of December.

Egypt seeks to accelerate the implementation of its privatisation programme, which offers stakes in 35 state-owned assets under the government's IPO programme or through selling some assets to strategic investors by the end of June 2024.

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