“We are hoping to get a new truce started in a couple of weeks — before the end of this month but hopefully earlier. We are hard at work with many partners,” said an informed Egyptian source.

Speaking on Monday, the source said that in recent days Egypt and Qatar, the two countries leading mediation efforts, had received “serious” and “encouraging” signs both from Israel and Hamas’ “political bureau and leadership on the ground”. He conceded, however, that a final yes has still to come from Yehia Al-Sinwar, the Gaza-based Hamas leader who has so far declined all offers of a temporary truce, insisting instead on a ceasefire linked to the release of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas on 7 October in return for all Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

“We have tried hard to get a ceasefire and we were hoping to get it before the end of 2023 but it did not work,” said the source. He added that what Egypt is currently working on is a more gradual cessation of hostilities.

“Each side will table its demands for this ceasefire to happen and we will work on getting an agreement on how it could happen and on getting things done on the ground,” he said while declining to furnish a timetable.

“Things keep changing and there are many factors involved. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying everything to keep the war going because he needs a military victory to balance all the legal charges he is facing and the political accusations of incompetence.”

Israel is still carpet-bombing Gaza, causing mass destruction and casualties. As the war threatens to enter a fourth month, close to 25,000 people have been killed, 50,000 seriously wounded, 80 per cent of Gaza’s buildings have been damaged beyond repair and close to two million people displaced. Medical facilities have been deliberately targeted, and the entire population of Gaza has little or no access to food, water, shelter, and medicines.

The only pause in the wholesale destruction so far has been a one-week humanitarian truce in November, mediated by Egypt and Qatar with political support from the US and some European countries. The November truce allowed for the entry of desperately needed but limited aid supplies.

Today, says the source, the hope is to secure a new and longer truce. “Last time we agreed on a three-day truce that could be extended. This time round we are trying to get a deal on an open-ended truce with both sides putting down conditions on what they expect to keep the truce going.”

While he declined to give details of the demands Egypt has been receiving, the bottom line for Hamas is the release of all Palestinian prisoners and the unconditional entry of humanitarian aid and unrestricted exit for seriously wounded Palestinians in need of medical treatment. Israel wants all civilian and military hostages released and security arrangements that end Hamas’ control of Gaza and allow the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Initially, there would be heavy Israeli military presence on the ground which could then evolve into a security coordination scheme similar to that in the West Bank.

These are very tough demands that each side is making, said the source, “so we have been trying to reduce things to specific points and have been sending out questions and trying to formulate proposals based on the answers we receive.”

Egypt has been pushing “a set of guidelines for the launch of a truce that could hopefully stand for two weeks”.

“We are talking about a gradual process whereby one step leads to the other. It is a complex situation where if one step fails the entire process could collapse.”

Nor are there any guarantees the truce will be extended.

“Netanyahu seems determined to get on with phase three of the war whereby Israel attacks the southernmost part of Gaza and eliminates as many military Hamas leaders as possible.”

“It is clear that Netanyahu cannot avoid the pressure of extremists in his government and opposition to the war in Israel is not that strong,” continued the source. And with plans in place to manage phase three of the war on the basis of “more low intensity” attacks that reduce the number of casualties “Netanyahu is not under that much pressure from the US to halt the war.”

And how long the war lasts “will be determined not just by its military objectives but also by plans for the day after.”

“It is really hard to say today that anyone has a comprehensive vision for the management of Gaza after the war,” argued the source, adding that while there are ideas that have been shared among key regional and international players —  “including Israel” —  a final plan has yet to emerge.

“It is not easy to come up with a plan that redraws the role of Hamas in Gaza in a way that Hamas can itself accept, the roles of the Palestinian Authority and of Israel.”

It is hard to see Hamas’ military leaders agreeing to take a backseat or leave Gaza altogether while allowing the PA to return and start managing Gaza on the basis of a security cooperation scheme with Israel. Nor is it likely, says the source, that Netanyahu will be willing to end the war and withdraw Israeli troops only to have Al-Sinwar appear on TV a few days later to claim military victory.

As Egypt continues to examine possible scenarios with concerned partners, especially Qatar and the US, the source said that much will depend on how things unfold on the ground.

“It is one thing if Israel were to sustain heavy losses among its soldiers and another if it doesn’t. In the same way, it is one thing if Hamas’ military leaders escape Israeli strikes and another if the opposite happens.”

The next few days will be telling. “Yes, a deal is practically in the offing, but it is a deal that is very much on edge. Everything could just collapse as it has collapsed many times before.”

* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly