Ask anybody who’s interested who will win the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and they will tell you who they will root for, who they want to win.
But hope is one thing and who will indeed arise triumphant could be something very different.
From the casual couch observer to the professional prognosticators, the truth is that it’s anybody’s guess who among the 24 nations will lift the trophy of this 34th edition. Most of the 14 past winners are participating this year. Will one of them do it again or will a black swan soar to the top? Will the traditional powerhouses plough their way to the final stages or will something happen that nobody thought of, throwing the outcome completely into disarray?
What’s not in doubt in this 13 January-11 February football extravaganzain Cote d’Ivoire is the prize money, which was increased by 40 per cent, meaning the winner will receive $7 million. The losing finalist gets $4 million, each of the two semi-finalist $2.5 million and each of the four quarter-finalists $1.3 million.
Below, in alphabetical order, are the countries that could climb the highest mountain, with one crowned the king of Africa —although the unexpected could be right around the corner.
Algeria
Algeria, in Group D with Angola, Burkina Faso and Mauritania, are seeking their third continental title. After their last victory in 2019, they suffered a shock early group stage exit in 2022 and failed to qualify for the Qatar World Cup that year. However, Djamel Belmadi has quality players at his disposal, including dual-nationality players Houssem Aouar and Amine Gouiri. They are participating in the AFCON for the 19th time.
Cameroon
The Indomitable Lions aim for a sixth title, second most after Egypt. Third in the last edition which took place at home, Cameroon are in Group C with Senegal, Gambia and Guinea. As fate would have it, Cote d’Ivoire, this year’s AFCON hosts, is where Cameroon won their first AFCON title, in 1984. Former captain and double African champion Rigobert Song is preparing to play his first AFCON as head coach. Vincent Aboubakar, the top scorer in the last AFCON with eight goals, will once again be their offensive spearhead.
Cote d’Ivoire
There is no doubt that being the host gives Côte d’Ivoire a significant advantage. But the Elephants are also a successful football country as they seek a third AFCON title. They also hope to go farther than in 2022 when they lost to Egypt on penalties in round 16. Though gone are days of Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Youssouf Fofana, coach Jean-Louis Gasset can rely on the experience of Ibrahim Sangaré, Franck Kessié, Jonathan Bamba, Seko Fofana and Sébastien Haller. Côte d’Ivoire will face Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria in Group A. The Ivorian clash with three-time champions Nigeria will be among the marque encounters in the group stages.
Egypt
Egypt are the most successful team in AFCON history, claiming the title a record seven times, including an unprecedented hat-trick between 2006 and 2010, their last victory. They have finished runners-up on three occasions (1962, 2017, and 2022) and third thrice (1963, 1970, and 1974). Last time out, they lost in the final against Senegal on penalties. The squad, 33 in the world, may be less flashier than their competitors but they have a player like Mohamed Salah who is undoubtedly motivated to win his first AFON title. Egyptians will be hoping Salah can pick up in AFCON where he left off in Liverpool. Salah has scored 18 goals across all competitions this season. He’s the Premier League co-leader — alongside Manchester City’s Erling Haaland — with 14 goals, netting twice in Liverpool’s 4-2 win over Newcastle before heading off for international duty.
Egypt are pitted in a relatively weak Group B against Cape Verde, Mozambique and Ghana, the team most likely to give Egypt the most problems. The Black Stars will be looking for a fifth continental trophy and possess exciting talent, including attacking West Ham sensation Mohammed Kudus. The red-hot Kudus, Ernest Nuamah and ever-green Andre Ayew certainly stand out but Thomas Partey of Arsenal is out injured.
Cape Verde are set to compete in only their fourth AFCON while Mozambique are just one appearance better.
Morocco
Much will be expected of the Atlas Lions who, in Qatar, became the first African country to reach the semi-finals of a World Cup, eventually finishing fourth. However, Morocco have won the premier African football competition only once, in 1976 in Ethiopia. Their best performance since then was finishing runners-up to 2004 hosts Tunisia. Drawn in Group F with DR Congo, Zambia and Tanzania, Morocco are 13th in the world, the highest among participating AFCON teams and will present a squad filled with players who excel at leading clubs such as Achraf Hakimi, Yassine Bounou, Sofyan Amrabat, Youssef En-Nesyri and Hakim Ziyech. Coach Walid Regragui has expressed confidence in his players’ ability to replicate their achievements in the 2022 World Cup.
Nigeria
The Super Eagles of Nigeria are one of the teams that could potentially go all the way. The three-time champions were last crowned winners in 2013. They were also runners-up in 1984, 1988, 1990, and 2000. But they are drawn in tough Group A against tournament hosts Cote d’Ivoire and dark horse candidates Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau. Nigerian football was made proud recently when star player Victor Osimhen was voted best African player in the men’s category at the CAF awards. The Napoli star is considered one of the best strikers in the world, and is known for his elite finishing, pace, strength and athleticism.
Senegal
Since Egypt’s historic triple win in 2006, 2008, and 2010, no defending African champion has managed to win even back-to-back titles. But Senegal could do it after their first-ever victory in 2022, and after reaching two consecutive finals. With captain Sadio Mané, Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gueye, and Ismaïla Sarr among their ranks, the Lions of Teranga go to Cote d’Ivoire after remaining unbeaten in the qualifiers. Mane, who plays for Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nasr, played a pivotal role in Senegal’s 2022 triumph, scoring the winning penalty against Egypt after a scoreless draw. The 31-year-old was the tournament’s MVP while his teammate Mendy won the Best Keeper Award. Making their 17th AFCON appearance, Senegal find themselves in a challenging group alongside Cameroon, Guinea and Gambia in Group C.
South Africa
Star of Egypt’s Ahly club Percy Tau, the reigning CAF Interclub Player of the Year, will lead his country in Group E where they will face Mali, Namibia and Tunisia. Coached by Belgian Hugo Broos, at the helm of Cameroon when they won the AFCON in 2017, South Africa have been touted as one of the favourites for this year’s tournament by Cote d’Ivoire legend Yaya Toure. South Africa have one AFCON title under their belt, won in 1996, when they played host.
Tunisia
The North African giants are set for their 16th consecutive AFCON finals, in which they have been champions once, runners-up, fourth place and quarter-finalists six times. In Group E alongside Mali, South Africa and Namibia, the Carthage Eagles are favourites to progress to the next round with a highly experienced squad. Former star in Egyptian club Zamalek, Ferjani Sassi has been omitted, as has Manchester United midfielder Hannibal Mejbri.
Zambia
Surprise champions of the 2012 edition in Gabon after defeating this year’s hosts Cote d’Ivoire in a dramatic penalty final, the Chipolopolo find themselves in a dicey Group F consisting of Morocco, DR Congo and Tanzania. The country failed to win a match at the finals since that triumph, suffering group stage exits in 2013 and 2015 and then failing to qualify in the past three tournaments. The triumph by Herve Renard’s men was emotional, with the squad inspired by the loss of the 1993 Zambian team after a plane crash close to the venue of the final in Libreville.
Wild cards
While these countries will probably not win the whole show, a few might play the role of spoiler, disrupting the seeming inevitability of the outcomes.
DR Congo twice won the AFCON, the second coming in 1974 in Egypt.
Guinea’s best finish was runners-up in 1976. The team reached the quarter-finals in four tournaments.
Mali, participating for their 13th time, is a major youth football power in both Africa and the world.
The Stallions of Burkina Faso were finalists in 2013.
Fast-improving Equatorial Guinea finished in fourth place in 2015 and reached the quarter-finals in 2012 and 2022.
Guinea-Bissau have now qualified four times, making their debut in only 2017. Guinea-Bissau and Equatorial Guinea are in the same Group A along with Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria, so will have much difficulty in qualifying.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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