Qualified acknowledgement

Haitham Nouri , Tuesday 16 Jan 2024

Saudi Arabia will not go out of its way to support the Houthis, reports Haitham Nouri

Qualified acknowledgement

 

Saudi Arabia is in the eye of the storm, but it still maintains its reserve. While rejecting US strategy, the kingdom has refrained from adopting a hostile position towards Washington. It condemns the Houthis and their Iranian backers even as it envisions a robust regional peace that aligns with its domestic priorities.

Since the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, which has killed over 24,000, over one per cent of the population, Riyadh has halted any initiatives to establish peace with Tel Aviv as had been planned before 7 October. Following the war, the Ansarullah (Houthis) who control most of the territory formerly recognised as North Yemen, engaged in the war by targeting vessels it deemed connected to Israel or heading to its ports. According to US statements, there have been 27 such attacks.

Riyadh condemned the Israeli offensive on Gaza but remained silent on the Houthis’ actions. This silence is incongruent with the kingdom’s role in championing a comprehensive regional peace, a key objective to the success of its 2030 strategy, initiated by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohamed bin Salman years ago.

Such Saudi silence also appears disproportionate to the significance of the Red Sea for Riyadh, on which it relies for managing 36 per cent of its extensive global trade. Riyadh also aims to leverage the resorts planned along its warm coastline to attract international tourism, thereby diversifying its sources of income beyond oil revenues. The success of Saudi tourism initiatives is contingent upon regional peace as well as Riyadh’s commitment to economic, cultural, and social openness to the world — a trajectory the kingdom has already put in place.

Saudi Arabia has been seeking to halt the devastating war in Yemen since 2020. Yemen is the Arab world’s poorest nation and the war there began in March 2015 with Gulf support for the internationally recognised Yemeni government against the Iran-backed Houthis. Despite numerous ceasefires and truces between Riyadh and the Houthis, none endured until the April 2022 truce, which has shown notable success despite its official conclusion six months later, as per the terms of a UN-brokered agreement signed by the Houthis and the Yemeni government. The truce was renewed in June and August 2022, but never again.

UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg said in December there were advances in putting together a roadmap addressing pending issues such as public sector salary disbursement and the resumption of oil exports. The withdrawal of the UAE, the second-largest member of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia in support of the legitimate Yemeni government, took place in 2020. In March 2023, archrivals Saudi Arabia and Iran engaged in the first Chinese-mediated talks to address long-standing disputes in place since the Iranian Revolution led by Shia leader Rohullah Khomeini.

In September 2023, Mohamed bin Salman stated in an interview with a US channel that there was increasing proximity to an agreement with Israel, provided there was a way to guarantee the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, progress on the Palestinian cause has proven complex, especially following the Israeli war on Gaza after Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood Operation on 7 October, which resulted in the death of 1140 Israelis and the capture of 240 others at the hands of Palestinian factions.

A few weeks after the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Houthis initiated attacks on ships they said were affiliated with Israel, whether owned by Israelis or bound for Israeli ports. The Yemeni group portrayed this move as a show of solidarity with Gaza. This move was a tactic to boost their popularity among the Zaidi sect, who comprise the majority of Yemenis, and to win more points against their rivals in the legitimate government, said Mohamed Abdel-Qader Al-Khalifi, a professor of political science in Sanaa.

The Houthis “want to secure a regional standing similar to Lebanon’s Hizbullah before engaging in negotiations with Saudi Arabia for a conclusive peace in the country,” he added. “I believe they seek Saudi recognition as rulers of northern Yemen, even if implicitly... but the success of this endeavour is contingent on Saudi decision-making,” he continued.

While sitting at the negotiation table with the Houthis implies at least implicit recognition of the Iranian-backed group by Saudi Arabia, officially acknowledging the current situation — where two governments exist — appears, in Al-Khalifi’s view, “very far-fetched. The Saudi declaration, certain to be followed by a regional declaration, is unexpected, as it acknowledges the division of Yemen — a notion rejected by Saudis and Arabs alike,” he said.

Saudi Arabia was the first champion of unity, making this development unimaginable. Moreover, Yemeni forces predominantly support unity, undermining Houthi efforts. “If they are unable to attain this goal, siding with Gaza strengthens their influence over domestic opponents, positioning them as significant governance partners,” noted Al-Khalifi.

Many observers, including Al-Khalifi, believe this is more “attainable than the first goal,” as marginalising the Houthis or their Sunni opponents proves too much of a challenge. “The Saudi objective is to achieve comprehensive peace in Yemen, averting conflict with and among Yemenis,” he added, noting that “this war drains the entire Gulf and the Horn of Africa as well as Yemen, and impedes Saudi Arabia’s ambitious development plans. Saudi Arabia cannot be perceived as culturally, socially, and economically open while embroiled in a war that has claimed thousands of lives.”

Without peace, “investments in tourism, Red Sea resorts, and sports and art events may not attain their intended goals.” Al-Khalifi believes that “the Houthis recognise this predicament and are leveraging it to secure maximum gains.” However, he added that, “despite the challenges, the Saudi situation is not dire enough to make Saudi Arabia succumb to Houthi blackmail.”

Still, Saudi Arabia abstained from participating in the US Operation Prosperity Guardian, launched to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea against Houthi attacks. “Saudi Arabia is sensitive to local and Arab sentiments that oppose any ties with Israel or collaboration with the US, particularly against fellow Arabs. Riyadh is keen on winning over the Houthis for a lasting peace, despite its strategic ties with Washington. However, Riyadh will not officially recognise the Houthis as rulers of all or any part of Yemen. The extent of acknowledgement would be recognising them as equal partners and aiding them, along with others, in achieving peace there.”

* A version of this article appears in print in the 18 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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