The urgency of a ceasefire cannot be overstated given the existential threat facing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians under the brutal Israeli assault against the Strip, but a recent proposal supported by some Western powers has so far gained little headway.
Based on the first “humanitarian pause” in late November 2023, the proposal calls for a six-week truce during which Israel would release 200 to 300 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 35 to 40 hostages held in Gaza and the entry of 200 to 300 relief trucks into Gaza per day. Before 7 October, some 500 aid trucks entered the Strip daily providing Gazans with a bare minimum of essential needs.
Not only do Israel and the Palestinian resistance differ over the terms and conditions for a ceasefire, so apparently do Hamas officials among themselves. According to some Western press reports, Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar is pressing for a temporary truce while Hamas abroad are pushing for more Israeli concessions and a permanent ceasefire.
The Wall Street Journal, citing sources “familiar with the negotiations,” reported on 2 February that Sinwar wants a six-week pause to enable Hamas fighters to regroup and allow urgent aid into Gaza whereas Hamas political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh, who is currently in Qatar, is holding out for a permanent ceasefire backed by international guarantees and a plan to rebuild Gaza.
The two leaders are also at odds over the terms of the prisoner exchange, the outlines of which were agreed on by intelligence chiefs from the US, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar in late January.
While it is difficult to determine how deeply the disagreements among the Hamas leaders run, they could have repercussions on the future structures and orientations of the Islamist-oriented resistance organisation and on the more immediate developments in Gaza where Israel will take advantage of any opportunity to intensify its attacks against the civilian population.
While there is some pressure within Israel for a ceasefire and even an end to the military operation, especially from the families of the hostages and even from some other quarters of the Israeli public in reaction to reports of large numbers of fallen Israeli soldiers, the division in Hamas may tempt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to escalate the occupation forces’ military campaign further.
The Israeli war cabinet is also divided over the ceasefire and the conduct of the war in general, according to press reports. Disagreements revolve, in part, over whether and how to continue to press for a definitive breakthrough against Hamas fighters in Gaza as a means to justify the attrition in the military ranks and to stem the decline in public support for the government.
Netanyahu, himself, has become even more determined to pursue the military option, despite the recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that found it plausible that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, a finding reiterated in late January by a Federal Court in the US. He also opposes the release of Palestinians from Israeli jails and wants to keep contingents of Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) in Gaza after the eventual end to hostilities.
Whether due to the divisions in Hamas or in Israel, failure to produce a ceasefire will allow conditions in Gaza to deteriorate further. According to recent figures, the death toll in Gaza due to the Israeli assault surpassed 27,000 by the beginning of this month, although the figure is believed to be much higher, while hundreds of thousands of civilians face growing risk of epidemic disease and starvation. At the same time, the IOF is continuing to displace tens of thousands more, pushing the inhabitants into an increasingly smaller corner of the Strip towards Rafah in what is widely perceived as an attempt to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza.
Meanwhile, the disagreements in Hamas over a ceasefire could affect the arrangements between it and the regional powers that have been active in the mediating efforts between Hamas and Israel. Fragmentation within the organisation’s leadership could complicate the efforts of regional powers while giving Western powers greater scope to promote their pro-Israeli stances which are based on the Israeli narrative of what occurred on 7 October. The current internal divisions in Hamas also play into the hands of Western media attempts to portray Hamas as the side opposed to peace, despite frequent Hamas calls for a permanent ceasefire.
The foregoing dynamics have been playing out ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to the region on 4 February. In addition to Israel and the West Bank, he met officials in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Although it is too soon to predict the extent to which the US secretary of state’s visit will advance a ceasefire, the current situations in Hamas, Israel and on the ground in Gaza suggest that the prospects of any cessation of hostilities for any duration are weak. The difficulties facing mediators are considerable.
Divisions in Hamas are a formidable challenge. But then, should Hamas officials resolve their differences, would Israel pose no less of a challenge given the Israeli government’s reluctance to conclude a truce the first time around and the current increase in the bellicose rhetoric of the Netanyahu government?
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 February, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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