Egypt is involved in discussions of a regional scheme that will start with a truce in Gaza.
A blueprint of the scheme was all but finalised during recent meetings between CIA Chief Bill Burns and his counterparts from several countries, including Egypt, informed sources say.
According to sources, including two Egyptian officials and several foreign and UN diplomats, once a truce is reached, coupled with a three-phase plan for the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, security arrangements will begin to fall in place to test whether the truce can be turned into a ceasefire.
A parallel mechanism being discussed by US Secretary of State Bill Burns as he tours the region includes the launch of a process of reconstruction in Gaza with Gulf funds, the reworking of humanitarian assistance mechanisms — not least a review of the role of UNRWA following allegations some local staff members were involved in Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel — and a political process paving the way to Palestinian statehood.
“I think we are talking more about the path to statehood rather than a state. Despite appeals from the Palestinian Authority (PA) for immediate recognition most key players are not yet ready to fully recognise a Palestinian state,” said one of the Egyptian officials. He added that Cairo believes there is “an opportunity to restart a political process that will eventually allow for the announcement of a Palestinian state recognised in the UN.”
The source continued that it is too early to discuss the detailed nature of any state, whether it will be demilitarised or meet the requirements necessary for a “viable state” stipulated in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. “What is pressing now for us, and also for the Palestinians, both the political leadership of Hamas and the PA, is to end the suffering of Gazans.”
To get there, Egypt is pushing for a truce that can evolve into a ceasefire and the entry of more humanitarian aid.
“We are very close. Hopefully something can be announced before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken leaves the region or maybe shortly after, though this remains conditional on nothing going dramatically wrong on some other front, Lebanon — for example.”
According to the second Egyptian official source, Cairo is involved in discussing the details of the day-after on the assumption it is just around the corner. “Hopefully it will be before the end of this month, certainly before the advent of Ramadan” which starts this year on 11 March.
To get to the day-after as soon as possible, details of the security management of Gaza and “everything that relates to the Strip” will have to be agreed to the satisfaction of all parties concerned, including Egypt.
Both Egyptian sources confirmed the truth of a story in the Israeli press reporting that Cairo had told Tel Aviv that there was an urgent need to ensure no Palestinians are pushed out of Gaza into Sinai by force. Both said heavier Israeli strikes on Rafah had left Cairo worried about an unregulated influx of desperate Palestinians forced by Israel into “a de facto transfer”.
Egypt has made it clear to both the Israelis and Americans that the passage of any Palestinians “through” Egypt will have to be conducted in a coordinated and orderly manner.
“We realise that people may need to get out for a variety of reasons and that the Rafah crossing, given Israel’s blocking of other exits, is the only gateway. We are willing to cooperate, but we will not accept a fait accompli.”
Egypt also informed Israel that management of the Philadelphi Corridor, which Israel left fully following its 2005 unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, has to be “managed with the consent” of Egypt, the PA and Israel which each have security and political concerns that will have to be accommodated.
During technical meetings between Egyptian and Israeli teams earlier this week, Israel informed Egypt that it has no plans for a permanent presence on the ground along the corridor. “What we are discussing is the management of both sides of the borders to avert all forms of smuggling,” explained one of the Egyptian sources.
Both sources say Egypt is engaged in discussions on the management of the crossing between Gaza and Egypt with the Israelis, Americans, and Europeans though they declined to confirm reports in the Israeli press of plans to shift the Rafah crossing point to facilitate security and surveillance.
Truce terms relating to the exchange of the prisoners, negotiated with joint Egyptian-Qatari mediation, are more or less finished, the sources agreed.
Among the most problematic outstanding issues, most commentators agree, is the management of the 2 km buffer zone Israel wants along its border with Gaza. The US-supported scheme Israel proposed for a joint Arab/multinational peacekeeping force has been rejected by many Arab capitals, including Cairo.
The alternative of a strictly international peacekeeping team does not look immediately plausible given the sensitivities involved, said a UN source. He added that “this point will take time to fix because, even if the truce turns into a ceasefire, Israel remains loath to fully withdraw troops from the ground.”
According to the Egyptian sources, the PA is willing to accept some security role provided it receives clear guarantees from Israel that it will not get caught in the crosshairs between Israel and Hamas and other factions.
Sources also insist any security scheme for the border between Israel and Gaza will have to be managed with advanced surveillance technology, especially once reconstruction of the heavily bombed Strip begins.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 February, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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