Elections 2024: Gaza war dims prospects for Biden

Khaled Dawoud , Friday 8 Mar 2024

While Trump has tightened his grip over the Republican Party, dissent over Israel’s war against Gaza within the Democratic Party reduces Biden’s chances of winning the upcoming US presidential election.

Dim prospects

 

When US Vice President Kamala Harris lashed out against Israel on Sunday, holding it responsible for the “human catastrophe” that over 2.3 million Palestinians are suffering in Gaza, and calling for an “immediate ceasefire” agreement for at least six weeks, that was the tip of the iceberg.

Frustration with the failure of Netanyahu to heed any of the US administration’s demands, whether in terms of suspending the fighting or increasing the flow of aid into the devastated Strip is rife.

Already the Netanyahu government has missed several deadlines the Biden administration had hoped would temporarily stop the fighting to facilitate a second hostage exchange agreement, similar to the one reached in late November when 100 Israelis held by Hamas in Gaza were exchanged for 300 Palestinian prisoners.

Biden’s administration was hoping that Israel would conclude its broad-scale, indiscriminate bombing of Gaza by Christmas last year, then by late January. The latest declared deadline by Biden, ahead of the start of Ramadan on Monday, 10 March, is also now in doubt as Israel insists that it was only willing to accept a temporary truce, not a permanent ceasefire.

As the humanitarian situation in Gaza continued to deteriorate, and UN officials along with humanitarian aid organisations warned of an imminent famine, extremist members of the Israeli government, topped by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezlael Somtrich, blocked requests by the Biden administration to open more crossings from the Israeli side to allow much-needed aid into Gaza.

They also delayed the delivery of a wheat shipment the US sent through Ashdod Port, allegedly because the UN relief agency, UNRWA, would be the party responsible for distribution.

The decision by Biden to start air-dropping aid on different parts of Gaza this week was seen as another rebuke to the Israeli government for failing to allow sufficient aid.

Ben-Gvir, whom Biden has specifically named as one of the most extremist ministers in Netanyahu’s government, has also been encouraging protests by right-wing Israeli demonstrators blocking the movement of trucks into Gaza from the Israeli crossing of Karm Abu Salem, making the situation much worse despite the provisional ruling issued by the International Court of Justice on 26 January, demanding that Israel allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza.

The horrific killing of 120 Palestinians near Gaza City on 29 February after they were shot at by the Israeli occupation army while desperately trying to snatch boxes of aid carried by trucks has probably contributed to the decision by the Biden administration to go public in criticising the Netanyahu government, domestic factors related to the upcoming US presidential election in November were also a decisive factor.

Biden’s repeated pride in the fact that he has always been an ardent “Zionist” and his failed approach to appease Israel allegedly to bring its government to respond to his demands for a long-term settlement have deeply divided the Democratic Party at a time when Trump had tightened his control over the Republican Party. Biden’s stands on the Gaza war have also alienated key constituents, including African Americans, Arab American, and younger voters.

Opponents of the war and pro-Palestinian protesters have followed Biden and other top US officials such as US Secretary Antony Blinken to events across the country to protest their blind support for Israel in the war. Major trade unions, including in the automotive industry, as well as prominent Black faith leaders, have also pressed the Democratic administration to halt financial assistance for Israel, describing its military campaign against Palestinians in Gaza as genocide.

However, the most glaring warning sign to date came from Michigan last week when more than 100,000 people, many of them Arab Americans, voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic Party’s primary in the swing state.

While former US president Donald Trump had narrowly won the state by 10,000 votes in 2016 while competing against former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the support of the Arab and Muslim American community for Biden in 2020 was vital in winning by a far wider margin of 150,000 votes when Trump was seeking re-election. If the over 100,000 voters who chose “uncommitted” maintained the same stand come November, Biden will likely find it difficult to win the state again.

Arab-Americans are not expected to vote for Trump who has been Netanyahu’s favourite and recognised occupied Jerusalem as Israel’s united capital. Yet, if Arabs stayed at home on election day as a sign of continued protest against Biden’s stand on the Gaza war, that would be enough to increase Trump’s chances to claim Michigan again.

Several prominent Democratic senators and Congressmen, including some known for their traditional support for Israel, have been signing letters asking Biden to reconsider his unconditional support for Tel Aviv, particularly in terms of providing weapons used to kill Palestinians in massive numbers. The incident in which a young American Air Force serviceman, Aaron Bushnell, set himself on fire in front of the Israeli Embassy in Washington two weeks ago while shouting “Free Palestine” had also sent shockwaves within American society.

The latest sign that the Biden administration had decided to openly express its disagreement with the current, extremist Israeli government came on Monday when US Vice President Harris, along with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and US Secretary of State Blinken all held meetings with Israeli opposition leader and current war cabinet member Benny Gantz. Netanyahu had openly expressed his opposition to the visit, saying there was only one prime minister in Israel.

Considering that Netanyahu had not been invited to the White House since taking office in late December, 2022, the writing is on the wall. Yet it remains to be seen whether that can be translated into tangible action to bring Israel to stop its war crimes against Palestinians in Gaza, either by halting arms exports to Israel or allowing a UN Security Council to adopt a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 March, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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