While Israeli soldiers from the NahalBrigade were trying to clear the destroyed houses in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City, one of them suddenly spotted a Palestinian man at a window holding an anti-tank rocket launcher of the PG-R type, also known as the Al-Yassin, which he wanted to use to hit one of the tanks of the Israeli 401stArmoured Brigade.
The Israeli soldier immediately directed the Israeli Air Force to bomb the house, and in a few minutes it was completely destroyed. There followed extensive strikes on other buildings.
His comrades in the Israeli 7th ArmouredBrigade in Khan Yunisraided the underground headquarters of Hamas leaders accompanied by the Givati Brigade but found them empty despite the intelligence success in reaching them.
According to the US newspaper the Wall Street Journal, 80 per cent of the Hamas tunnels in the Gaza Strip are still intact and only 20 per centof them have been destroyeddespite the Israeli intelligence efforts, air strikes, and the expansion of ground operations.
A senior Israeli military official told the Journal that “it’s a very hard mission. It’s done slowly, very carefully. It’s urban warfare.”
Israeli soldiers are becoming frustrated at this lack of success, which has caused physical and psychological problems for some,especially after the shock of the Hamas attacks last October. They are wondering when they will be withdrawn from Gaza.
Since the beginning of the Israeli assault on Gaza last October, the Israeli army has relied on urban warfare and a “slicing” strategy of “strategise, locate, isolate, constrict and eliminate.”
The objective is to divide the Strip into multiple sectors and then find hostile elements and neutralise them. Three Israeli divisions out of a total of eight were launched along three main axes inside the Gaza Strip in Beit Lahiya, Beit Hanoun, and East Gaza. In December, a fourth division attacked Khan Yunis with the support of the Israeli Air Force.
The subsequent fierce attacks saw the bombing of residential facilities in the Gaza Strip, bringing the number of casualties of unarmed civilians to more than 30,000 dead in the most violent attack on the Strip since the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 and leading to accusations of Israeli genocide against the Palestinians being brought at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
The cost of the Israeli military operations is expected to reach 255 billion shekels, or about 13 per cent of Israel’s GDP, according to the Bank of Israel, forcing the Israeli Occupationto withdraw 12 out of 21 combat units from the Gaza Strip due to the economic strain, increasing attacks from the north, and preparations for an offensive against the Lebanese group Hizbullah.
According to commentator Franz Stefan Gadywriting in the US magazine Foreign Policylast October,“at the level of strategy and politics, Israel’s trust in technological superiority helped policymakers and senior military officers fall victim to the illusion that there were no hard choices to be made in Israel’s military strategy.”
“Overreliance on such technology at the tactical level contributed to a defensive mindset within the [Israeli army] that may have allowed important skills, such as the ability to conduct complex combined arms operations when attacking, to atrophy.”
Gady’s conclusion is that“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategic myopia and hubris that led him to be blindsided on October 7 was enabled by the trust that the [Israeli army] and Israel’s other security services had in their technological sophistication. It did so by creating the sense that Israel could have its cake and eat it, too, without the need to make any trade-offs.”
Despite its success in releasing two hostages from the Al-ShabouraCamp last month, it is unlikely that this action of the Israeli army will be repeated. According to Israeli journalist Amos Harel, editor of military affairs for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz,Hamas will learn from its mistakes and secure the remaining hostages.
It would therefore be better to agree a ceasefire and the hostages’ release to prevent risking their lives during military operations, Harel said.
Meanwhile, thousands of demonstrators are still gathering in Jerusalem’s Paris Square to demand the completion of a deal on the hostages and their release, something that Netanyahu has failed to achieve through the use of excessive force.
An Israeli delegation has recently arrived in Cairo to try to make progress on a deal, and according to the Israeli Website Kan,it will present the names of the Palestinians that Israel refuses to release in return for the Israeli hostages.
According to statements made by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri to the IsraeliMaarivnewspaper,“we cannot say that we have reached an understanding in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas.”
Israeli Channel 14 reported on Sunday that Israeli General Daniel Hagari and others have recently announced their retirements, which could mean wider cracks in Israel’s wartime leadership.
Former Israeli defenceminister Benny Gantz has been trying to find a way out of Netanyahu’s cabinet, which would leave Netanyahu alone and floundering and fearing an unknown future with blood on his hands.
According to Australian commentator Mick Ryan talking to ABC Australia, “Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar learned Hebrew and studied Israel during his time in prison. He understands the Israelis well. He knows that if it manages to continue the war, Hamas may continue to erode Israeli citizens’ confidence in their military’s ability to secure border areas.”
“This will have an economic impact and ultimately increase internal political instability and increase emigration out of Israel by families who no longer feel safe there.”
As US urban warfare expert John Spencer has written, Hamas relies on two main pillars in its military strategy: tunnels and time.
The tunnels have tactical benefits, but they also have political benefits, Spencer said, as their complete destruction is an impossible task. Due to the presence of the tunnels and the second pillar, which is time, Hamas does not aim to win or lose the war but is using the time factor to pressure the international community to stop the Israeli war machine.
Strategically, Israel’s use of anti-bunker bombs to destroy the tunnels has caused fierce criticism of the Israeli Occupation Forces by the international community due to high civilian casualties.Israeli options will run out over time because all armaments, commanders, Hamas fighters, and even the Israeli hostages are inside the tunnels.
For many observers, there is no benefit for either sidein proceeding with the military operations, which will increase the humanitarian suffering in the Gaza Strip. The hope is that a ceasefire can be agreed before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan with US sponsorship, particularly amid fears of a humanitarian catastrophe in the event of an Israeli attack on the city of Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip.
According to US President Joe Biden, theIsraeli side has agreed not to continue military operations in Ramadan and a hostage deal should enter into force this week, should Hamas leaders accept the offer.
the writer is a researcher at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 March, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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