In 2023, a total 237 deaths and 456 injuries resulted from 26 terrorist operations in Southeast Asia. The Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar were the most affected countries, and the perpetrators belonged to either IS or its satellites such as the Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines and the Arakan Army in Myanmar.
Examining the targets of these attacks — churches, police stations, and crowded marketplaces — suggests the desire to spread panic throughout society. Other goals also include weakening national governments, draining resources, and exhausting security forces. They believe this will bring them closer to their goal of establishing what they call the Islamic State of East Asia (Wilayat Daesh Sharqiy Asia); this, despite their fall in Syria and Iraq, where IS lost territory and followers.
Chased by the international anti-terror coalition, IS leaders have begun shifting their activities to Africa and Asia. Their aim is to regroup, establish new bases that attract new recruits or at least sympathisers for the kind of premodern abominations they wrongly portray as reflecting true Islam: burning people alive and enslaving women as concubines, for example.
Alarmingly, the IS ideology seems deeply rooted in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines — the only Southeast Asian nation listed among the ten countries most vulnerable to terrorism — where the threat of terrorist attacks looms large. Islamic State elements are highly active on social media, spreading dangerous propaganda. Recently, they released an audio recording urging their supporters to pledge allegiance to the new IS caliph, Abul-Husayn Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi, and to carry out terrorist attacks.
It’s important to note that during the peak of IS’s violence in the Arab region, hundreds of fighters from the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar joined their ranks. Survivors returned disillusioned and grieving the loss of their dream caliphate. They now seek revenge within their home countries. Last year, the parent organisation released a 36-minute audio message calling on Muslims in the Philippines, Singapore, India, Indonesia and the rest of East Asia to join them, adding to anxieties and tensions in Southeast Asian decision-making circles.
The potential for a more violent wave of terrorism has risen with the appointment of a Filipino named Ismail Abdul-Malik, also known as Abu Turaif, as the leader of IS in Southeast Asia. This follows the death of his predecessor, Fakhruddin Haji Ali, during a Philippine military operation late last year in the southern region, which has a Muslim majority.
Abu Turaif is known as the leader of an armed group called Maute. This group, along with the IS-affiliated Abu Sayyaf, besieged the southern city of Marawi in 2017 in an attempt to declare it an IS province, with fighters from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia participating in the siege. However, the Philippine military successfully thwarted their efforts. Terrorists from the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) led by Tokboy Mangudadatu have also joined Abu Turaif. But how is this leader likely to demonstrate his competence and leadership skills?
First, he will strive to garner broader and deeper support for IS in the Philippines, particularly on Mindanao Island. He will exploit the desire of the Muslim population in the southern regions to secede from the Philippines and leverage propaganda demonising the West, accusing them of Islamophobia and hostility towards everything Islamic, along with the ongoing Israeli war against Palestinians in Gaza. As an old guard terrorist he is likely to plan resounding operations to make the headlines, using women and children as well as the wretched of the earth to spread his dominion.
The situation in Indonesia is no better. In 2023, Indonesian cities witnessed seven terrorist incidents that killed 40 people and injured 84 others. The Indonesian government continues to confront the threat of terrorism and dry up its sources, both forcefully and through good deeds and dialogue. A large number of leaders and members of Ansar Al-Dawla, the largest IS affiliate in Indonesia, have been arrested. But current IS fighters, recruited on social media and sometimes operating independently or in a vacuum, learning to manufacture explosives and wage paramilitary campaigns, hail from all over the country.
In Singapore, IS poses a growing threat through social media platforms that spread the message through gaming platforms. The security forces recently arrested two 16-year-olds who were recruited in this way. Even in a technologically advanced oasis of modernity like Singapore, where quality education is available, unemployment rates are low and the annual per capita income is high, IS manages to recruit followers including students of prestigious universities. It operates through small cells of fighters and support networks that provide the necessary funding and logistical support as well as propaganda for their crimes. They excel at exploiting modern technology.
Malaysia is another target, reached through social media, despite relative lack of support there due to the majority rejecting the IS narrative. Likewise Afghanistan (also known as Khorasan Province). There IS targets officials and Shiites, stirring up as much chaos as possible. The Taliban government, which regained power after the withdrawal of US forces, turns a blind eye to the activities of groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) so as to use them as leverage against its neighbours. This strengthens the false caliphate, which does not hesitate to do anything to spread, virus-like. And it seems to have affected the body of Southeast Asia.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 14 March, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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