As the Israeli war on Gaza gets close to hitting the seven-month line, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be facing more problems than ever. He does not seem to have plans to end the war, but according to the Israeli press he is not in a good place and has been becoming increasing erratic.

It may not be the war in itself or Netanyahu’s plan to start a ground offensive on Rafah in the Southern Gaza Strip that is alone responsible for the pressure. “There is pressure on Netanyahu from the US to reconsider his plans to enter Rafah, but this pressure is coupled with promises of other types, including new military packages and new Arab-Israeli normalisation deals,” said one Arab diplomatic source.

He said the US was hoping to convince Netanyahu to execute the Rafah offensive in a way that will not cause the expected humanitarian tragedy.  He added that several Arab and European capitals are on board in offering Netanyahu their support in sparing Rafah.

However, the question is whether the details of the planned ground offensive against Rafah are really Netanyahu’s biggest worry. Diplomats who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly in Cairo and from several concerned capitals abroad argue that Israel’s “master manipulator” has more pressing issues to deal with.

One important issue on Netanyahu’s agenda, perhaps the most important, is the outcry in Israel over draft legislation designed to eliminate an exemption that has been traditionally granted to ultra-orthodox Jews attending religious schools to serve in the Israeli military.

With Israel entrenched in its prolonged war on Gaza and with worries over a possible Israeli war on Hizbullah in Southern Lebanon, there has been debate over the fairness of this exemption among other Israelis who have to do mandatory military service.

In March, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled in favour of ending the exemption on the basis that it constituted discrimination. Ultra-orthodox Haredim Jewish leaders decried the ruling and insisted that they would not accept it.

By the last day of June, legislation on the matter should be in place. However, ultra-orthodox members of Netanyahu’s own governing coalition have made it clear that they will not support any such legislation.

The Haredim community represents about 13 per cent of Israeli society. If ultra-orthodox members of the ruling coalition, including the United Torah Judaism and Shas Parties, were to walk out over the military service legislation, then Netanyahu would have to face one of the things he is most worried about these days: elections.

In the face of the large demonstrations that have been calling on him to step down over his failure to secure the return of all the Israeli hostages taken by Hamas during its operation against Israel on 7 October last year, Netanyahu had been determined that he will not go for early elections.

The current extreme-right Israeli government was formed at the end of December 2022. It has until the autumn of 2026 before its term expires.

In the view of diplomats following Israeli politics, it is unlikely that the failure of Netanyahu to secure a deal with Hamas to allow for the return of hostages will bring him down. However, these same diplomats say that Netanyahu cannot shrug the Haredim position off in the same way that he has been shrugging off the public outcry over his failure to live up to his promise to bring back all the hostages and his failure to agree a deal with Hamas.

Today, they say, Netanyahu is engaged in talks over a possible re-routing of the government if the ultra-orthodox Jews were to quit over the conscription legislation. Even when the law is passed, it will be an uphill battle for Netanyahu to see that it is observed when the ultra-orthodox leaders have been making it clear that they will not observe it.

One of Israel’s two chief rabbis, Yitzhak Yosef, said that the Haredim will leave Israel if the exemption is dropped.

Netanyahu does not have many choices. He could bow to the Supreme Court ruling that has wide public support against the ultra-orthodox. He could appeal against the ruling to the possible fury of public opinion. Or he could just drop the legislation to his own political embarrassment.

“There is no easy choice, and this issue is just one of many on the bill that Netanyahu now has to pay for his prolonged war on Gaza,” one of the diplomats said.

There is also another equally consequential item, he said, namely the resignations of Israel’s top military brass over the Hamas operation on 7 October. On 22 April, Aharon Haliva, the Israeli military intelligence chief, resigned as a result of failures in anticipating and preventing the Hamas operation.

“There is a lot of speculation about what this resignation actually means and about what [Haliva] will be saying about what happened prior to 7 October and during the subsequent months of the war and whether he will say anything that could blame Netanyahu,” the same diplomat said.

He added that coming at a crucial point of the war, when Netanyahu has failed to eliminate Hamas as he said he would, the resignation makes the situation a lot more difficult for the Israeli Prime Minister, who has so far declined responsibility or failure.

Haliva’s resignation came after several other resignations in the Israeli army spokesman’s team in March. According to diplomatic sources, it is not necessarily the last of the resignations that Netanyahu might have to deal with over the Gaza war.

“This is a big challenge for Netanyahu, who wants to strengthen the morale of his soldiers ahead of the Rafah ground offensive that is promising to be a tough battle given the strength that Hamas has been showing despite the brutal Israeli strikes,” the diplomat said.

He added that even if those resigning did not blame Netanyahu for any wrongdoing, their action is demoralising for soldiers on the ground, no matter the public and political support the army has for its war on Gaza.

“This is the last thing that Netanyahu would want right now, ahead of his anticipated operation against Rafah – a demoralised army that has been in an open-ended war for [close to] seven months with no end at sight,” the diplomat said.

He added that foreign embassies in Israel have been monitoring an increase in the numbers of Jews leaving Israel.

The Israeli press has been indicating that reverse migration has been on the rise in the country, with close to a quarter of a million people having already left as the war was getting into its third month by the end of December.

“We don’t know the figures today, but we do know that they are increasing fast,” the diplomat said.

Israelis, he said, are not just worried about the open-ended war and its impact on the country’s economy. They are also worried about the international image of Israel in view of the legal moves against it before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).

This week, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz wrote that “Israel scrambles” as Netanyahu, Defence Minister Yaov Gallant, and Army Chief Herzl Halevi “face ICC warrants for war crimes” in the coming days.

Both the Israeli and the US press have quoted sources in both countries who have said that Netanyahu is reaching out to US President Joe Biden for help. Relations between Biden and Netanyahu have been at an all-time low over the reluctance of the Israeli prime minister to accommodate Biden’s request to contain the humanitarian violations committed during the war on Gaza.

On Monday, the US said that it does not support an ICC investigation into the complicity of Netanyahu, Gallant, and Israeli army chiefs in committing war crimes in Gaza. “We’ve been really clear about the ICC investigation that we don’t support it. We don’t believe that they have the jurisdiction,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told a briefing.

Earlier this year, the ICJ called on Israel to make sure that genocide is not being committed in Gaza, upon the request of South Africa for provisional measures to be ordered by the top UN legal body.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who shrugged off the ICJ ruling, has also said that Israel will not bow to the ICC. Netanyahu has said that his decisions will not be influenced by it.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 2 May, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly