Following the first televised debate between US President Joe Biden and his Republican challenger Donald Trump, it seems that Biden’s faltering performance has negatively impacted his standing as the Democratic Party candidate in the November presidential elections.
Although the debate was expected to either boost or diminish the chances of each candidate, Biden’s weak performance against a confident Trump has raised significant concerns within the Democratic Party.
According to US news outlet Politico, disappointed Democrats are ready to push Biden out of the race, but they need him to take the first step. Within minutes of the debate’s conclusion, analysts on CNN openly discussed the possibility of replacing Biden on the ticket, reflecting the depth of concern within the party.
While the Democratic Party has a system in place to nominate a new candidate if the current one withdraws, this process has not been used in decades and appears to be ill-defined. According to the Democratic National Committee’s rules, there is no clear mechanism to remove Biden from the nomination unless it is done through an open process at the party’s Convention.
With Biden having secured 95 per cent of the delegate votes in the primaries, at least half of them would need to reject his nomination to oust him from the race.
If Biden decides to withdraw, it will start an open process to choose a replacement. Among the potential names are Vice-President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois Governor J B Pritzker. These candidates would need to garner the support of thousands of Democratic delegates to secure the party’s nomination. Although Biden wields significant influence over this process, his endorsement of Harris might not be sufficient due to her weak polling numbers.
Time is running out, as the deadline in Ohio to name the party’s candidates is 7 August. The Democratic National Committee has decided to adjust the timing of the Convention to ensure candidates are on the ballot. The question remains: will a new candidate emerge to replace Biden?
There is no doubt that the US is facing a dilemma in finding a suitable president, whether Trump or Biden. Both are controversial candidates, raising questions about the future of US leadership. For the Middle East, the re-election of Trump or the re-election of Biden will have different impacts on regional policies.
Trump, known for his strong support for Israel and hardline policies towards Iran, could exacerbate tensions in the region. In contrast, Biden might seek to renegotiate the nuclear deal with Iran and enhance diplomacy in resolving regional conflicts. However, the dream of establishing a Palestinian state remains distant under either, given traditional US policies and strong support for Israel.
In the end, the result of the US elections hangs between two candidates facing significant challenges, reflecting the state of political division in the country and its impact on both foreign and domestic policies.
Middle East impacts: Paul Salem, president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that the first televised debate between Biden and Trump did not directly address Middle East issues, but the results of the US elections in November will undoubtedly affect the region.
Salem explained that a Trump victory would mean continued unconditional support for Israel, intensifying efforts to counter Iranian influence, and strengthening relations with the Gulf countries. Trump’s future policies could include further normalisation agreements between Israel and other Arab countries, as well as a stricter stance on Iran.
Conversely, Salem noted that a Biden victory could lead to changes in US policy towards the Middle East, although support for Israel would remain steadfast. A new Biden administration might seek to renegotiate with Iran on the nuclear deal and bolster diplomacy in addressing regional conflicts. Relations with the Palestinians might also improve, with new attempts to advance the Peace Process.
Regardless of the winner, Salem emphasised that US policy in the Middle East will continue to be driven by strategic interests and strong support for Israel, with differences in approach and details depending on the next president.
Regarding Biden’s debate performance, one primary concern is Biden’s age and apparent frailty. His inability to speak naturally or present a continuous performance was evident to everyone, raising questions about his fitness for a second term.
The audience paid little attention to Trump’s statements or his domestic and foreign policies, focusing instead on Biden’s perceived unfitness due to his age. This situation has created tension among Democratic Party leaders, with media outlets like the New York Times and others calling for Biden to step down.
Calls have increased for the Democratic National Committee to hold a conference at the end of the year to open the field for a new candidate. The situation remains unclear, but there is growing pressure on Biden to announce his withdrawal and leave the field to another candidate who can bear the burdens of the presidency for the upcoming term.
In his remarks about the debate, Salem said that Trump won the debate decisively, and his chances of winning the November elections appear high. As the current situation continues, it seems that Biden’s campaign future hinges on his personal decision regarding his candidacy.
REPLACING BIDEN: US political analyst Shawn Town explained that replacing Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate would be extremely difficult unless Biden himself decides to step down or suffers a major incident that renders him incapable of continuing.
According to Town, Biden is determined to stay in the race, and only a few close people, like his wife, sister, or possibly former president Barack Obama, might dissuade him. So far, everyone is standing behind Biden.
Town noted that there is no constitutional prohibition against changing the candidate, but each state has its own electoral rules. These rules are usually uncontroversial, but in the current polarised climate, some Republican officials in certain states will undoubtedly object to changing the Democratic candidate.
He added that the Democrats had been prepared to nominate Biden provisionally because of the 7 August deadline in Ohio for naming candidates, where a Republican official has threatened not to allow Biden’s name on the ballot if he is not officially nominated by that date.
Time is running out for the Democrats if they are serious about changing the candidate.
Town cited a precedent from 1968, when then president Lyndon Johnson decided not to run for another term in March, and then Democratic hopeful Robert F Kennedy was assassinated in June, leaving the Democrats without a clear candidate until their Convention in August in Chicago, where Hubert Humphrey, then vice-president, was nominated.
The Republican Party candidate Richard Nixon went on to win the election.
Town said that one reason Biden is seeking a new term is that replacing him would be chaotic. The obvious choice is Vice-President Kamala Harris, but she is lagging in the polls, and it might be difficult for the Democratic Party to replace her, especially since she could be the first female president and the second African-American president.
Political analyst Ashraf Al-Ansari also expressed concern about Biden’s deteriorating condition, pointing out his declining chances of winning the presidency. He added that recent polls showed Biden with 45 per cent and Trump with 44 per cent of the vote after the debate, but he emphasised that these are just numbers.
Al-Ansari said that Biden was honest and had done his best over the past four years, while he described Trump as aggressive, saying “that’s his character.” He added that both candidates are weak, noting the negative reactions from the public towards them from Democrats and Republicans alike.
“Both are old and senile. Neither of them is a good candidate for the presidency of the United States,” he said.
On the impact of the debate on party alliances, Al-Ansari said that the situation has not changed. “America is divided. It’s about the interests of certain factions within the Republican and Democratic parties. There is no political alliance between Republicans and Democrats. Both are corrupt,” he said.
“The debate exposed the bankruptcy of the American political system. With 340 million citizens and more than 150 million voters, America cannot choose a suitable person for the job. It’s a bankruptcy and a failure. I am sure everyone in the world is laughing at the fact that two elderly men, one with Alzheimer’s and the other insane, are competing for the presidency of the United States. There are many young people who can perform the job much better than them.”
Regarding the issues each candidate should have focused on, Al-Ansari criticised their focus on illegal immigration and abortion, noting that the main issues are Ukraine, Israel, human rights, and the killing of 30,000 Palestinians by Israeli forces in Gaza.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: John Dabit, a member of the Central Committee of the Democratic Party in Iowa and the Democratic Party’s Senate candidate, emphasised the need for the Democratic Party to find a strong candidate to face Trump in the upcoming elections.
Dabit, who works as a statistician, pointed out that recent polls showing Trump winning the debate and Biden losing should be taken with a degree of caution. He explained that statistical surveys give us some points to pay attention to, but they are not the decisive factor in determining the winner. Rather, the Electoral College in each state decides on the president for the next four years.
Dabit noted that the American public’s reaction to the debate was filled with disappointment, with the vast majority of Americans feeling frustrated by the performance of both candidates, leading to a loss of hope in both. He explained that Biden was weak and frail in facing Trump, while Trump did not present any clear vision and used his time to attack Biden, creating an atmosphere of bullying and disrespect.
For political analyst Edmund Ghareeb, Biden’s performance in the debate was also not up to expectations even among many of his supporters, but he emphasised that removing him will not be easy. He explained that Biden has already secured the necessary delegate support to be the Democratic Party’s candidate. Replacing him would require complex steps unless he voluntarily steps down or suffers a major health incident.
Ghareeb added that some Democratic leaders had expressed concern about Biden’s performance and spoken to the US media, which previously supported Biden, pointing to the need for another candidate. However, prominent figures like former president Barack Obama and Vice-President Kamala Harris still support Biden, stressing that this was “just one night” out of many to come.
Ghareeb pointed out that Biden performed well in campaign rallies held after the debate, garnering support and sympathy from the attendees. He added that there have been attempts by some Democrats to replace Biden, but these efforts had diminished after polls showed continued support for Biden in states like California and New York.
NEW DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE: Political analyst Nabil Mikhail discussed the possible scenarios that could lead to Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, pointing out that there are voices within the Democratic Party openly calling for his replacement.
Mikhail explained that some members of the Democratic Party are demanding Biden’s withdrawal, as reported by the New York Times, which has called for Biden to drop out of the race. He added that one likely scenario would be that Biden announces that he will consult with his family and then announces his withdrawal through the media.
In discussing the challenges the Democratic Party may face if it decides to replace Biden, Mikhail noted that the potential replacements might not succeed in defeating Trump. Newsweek magazine has mentioned that Kamala Harris might lose to Trump by a larger margin than Biden and that California Governor Gavin Newsom could lose by a wide margin to Trump.
He dismissed the return of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or a role for Michelle Obama in the presidential race.
Other factors, such as developments in US foreign and domestic policy and potential judicial rulings against Trump, which could lead to his imprisonment on 11 July, may also affect the election results. Mikhail concluded by noting that the fate of the campaign depends significantly on the candidates’ personalities and the issues surrounding each of them.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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