Footage went viral on X last week showing a group of Israeli troops entering a house in the Gaza Strip and climbing the stairs until they were surprised by a mouse falling on one of them, forcing them to flee in panic. The video may appear to be funny, but it represents the military situation in Gaza, which has become an apparently endless game of cat-and-mouse for parties that have been battling stubbornly for 10 months.
During the past week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli army commanders, particularly those from the Israeli Southern Command, have met to discuss the need to gradually withdraw Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip in order to bolster forces on the northern front in preparation for the upcoming battle with the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah that will be more challenging than previous battles in Gaza.
Unless a hostage and ceasefiredeal is reached, more air attacks and limited raids inside the Gaza Strip can be expected, raising questions regarding the efficiency and success of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.
In order to understand the situation better, Al-Ahram Weeklyreached out to French General François Chauvancy, an expert on military doctrine with a career that has spanned more than 40 years, first in the regular army and then in NATO, including in Lebanon.
“The war in Gazais being waged in a particular context: a densely populated and urbanised area against an adversary who is prepared to fight Israeli soldiers and is prepared to die through martyrdom,” Chauvancy said.
“I do not believe that Hamas’ goal is to create a Palestinian state. Rather, its goal is to kill as many Israelis as possible. In addition, the Israeli hostages whose presence hinders the operations of the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF)in Gaza haveforced the IOFpolitically and militarily to act within an operational framework imposed by Hamas. At the beginning of this war, the liberation of the Israeli hostages was not a primary objective for the Israeli army. This goal was introduced later under pressure from the families of hostages.”
“Total victory has not been achieved. The Hamas leaders in Gaza have not been killed or captured. The cost of the diplomatic and economic warfare has been high, but the Hamas threat has been greatly reduced.”
Obviously, the human cost of the war has beenvery significant, and the Palestinian Ministry of Health said this week that the Israeli bombardmentsof the Gaza Strip have resulted in 38,098 deaths and 87,705 injured since 7 October last year. These were produced mostlyby airstrikes with severe collateral consequences, one primary cause of which has been Israel’s targeting system based on artificial intelligence (AI).
According to a recent UK Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report,“unfortunately, there has been no indication that the IOF has been attempting to learn lessons from its strikes. It is fairly easy to verify deaths from specific strikes using reports from journalists in Gaza and the Ministry of Heath, not to mention the IOF’s continuous surveillance of the besieged territory. With the continued large-scale killing of innocents, one may be forgiven for assuming that either the IOF does not recognise these deaths as errors, or it is simply indifferent” to them.
Not only does Israel rely on air attacks, but it also uses drones, which it has used in various reconnaissance and offensive missions, expanding their use in battle.
According to the Modern Warfare Institute (MWI), a US research institute, the Israeli Unit 888 “Refaim” (Ghost) has integrated small unmanned aerial systems (UAS) into more autonomous ground forces, enabling them to precisely close the circle on enemy combatants – progressing from identification to targeting, authorisation, and elimination – with drones rather than relying on other units.
This approach has spread to the rest of the Israeli army during the Gaza campaign and grants its commanders a fuller and more detailed picture of the battlefield.
However, neither technological developments nor Israel’s use of destructive force have the ability to completely end the war, neutralise the threat of Hamas, or return the hostages, and with the escalation on the northern front, there has been an urgent need to make a politically supported military decision to divert attention north.
According to Israeli journalist Amos Harel writing in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, “the key question will be how to embed this development in a narrative that will convince the public that the government and the Israel Defence Forces have achieved a significant portion of the war’s goals, even though Hamas hasn’t been totally defeated and 120 hostages are still in Gaza.”
Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah met with a Hamas delegation last week, with both sides emphasising their political and field coordination to confront the Israeli army, as evidenced by Hizbullah’s gradual military escalation in an attempt to distract the Israeli forces and relieve the pressure on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Israel has responded to the Hizbullah attacks with severe shelling on all sides, including of the Palestinian camps in the West Bank. Over recent weeks, Israel has also assassinated not just the commanders of the three Hizbullah battalions operating in South Lebanon (Nasser, Aziz, and Badr), but also the commanders of specialist unitsand more recently of Maytham Mustafa Al-Attar, commander of Hizbullah’sair-defenceunit.
Although Israel’s ability to kill these figures is an intelligence victory compared to the situation in Gaza, it raises the question of whether its deterrence measures have failed,necessitating these assassinations. The response from Hizbullah indicates that the Israeli government wants to continue the conflict, raising the possibility that Netanyahu is trying to find a rationale to continue for fear of his eventual fate in the event of a cessation of the war.
According to the Israeli Alma Institute,a research centre and think tank, from October 2023 to 1 July this year there have been 2,295 attacks against Israel in the north, with the vast majority implemented by Hizbullah and 99.3 per cent carried out within five to 20 km from the border.
Anticipated Israeli plans for limited military action in Lebanon will see its forces advance 10 km within Lebanese territory, making the total distance from the nearest Israeli position to the Lebanese border 15 km.
According to Chauvancy, “weakening Hizbullah is Israel’s main objective through a military operation if the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza do not succeed. It remains to be seen whether the Netanyahu government wants to embark on a limited military operation in Lebanon, and whether it will be supported by the Israelis.”
“It all depends on the negotiations with Hamas. If they are positive, Hizbullah could limit its attacks, especially since a new reformist government, with perhaps other objectives than war, is being set up in Iran.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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