The path towards World War III is open, with further clashes between the world’s rising and dominant powers being apparently inevitable.
Last week’s NATO Summit meeting in Washington was full of threats directed towards both Russia and China. It took several escalatory steps towards Russia, including the announcement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that US F-16 planes are on their way to Ukraine.
At the same time, the Pentagon announced the deployment of long-range missiles in Europe and has allowed Ukraine to use British and US missiles to strike deep into Russia. Poland had taken an even more dangerous step by signing an agreement with Ukraine to the effect that Polish air defences will cover western Ukraine, meaning that it will enter into direct confrontation with Russia.
These escalatory steps by NATO powers come against the backdrop of the progress of Russian forces in Ukraine along a front extending for more than 1,000 km and reports of the difficulty of the Ukrainian forces to resist despite the huge military aid they have received from NATO member states led by the US.
The West is now faced with two options: either to accept Ukraine’s defeat, or to enter the war directly. Both options are bitter pills to swallow. The defeat of Ukraine will not be suffered by Ukraine alone but will also be inflicted on the West and NATO. For this reason, there have been repeated statements to the effect that NATO will not accept Ukraine’s defeat by Russia, which means that the second option has become more open.
It is not surprising that Russia has announced that it has destroyed missile systems with foreign crews and that it is preparing for a wider war with NATO. But will Russia be alone in such a war?
North Korea is ready to send tens of thousands of soldiers armed with military equipment, and it is capable of doubling that number if Russia needs more. Chinese forces have also appeared in Belarus, although China is unlikely to enter into a direct confrontation early. It is more likely that the manoeuvres in Belarus are intended as a message to the US and Europe in response to the participation of Japan, South Korea, and Australia at the NATO Summit and US manoeuvres in the South China Sea.
China will not stand idly by in the face of US military movements near its shores, and it realises that the US is using all its capabilities to hinder its progress. As a result, China has abandoned its previous isolation and has begun to strengthen its military capabilities, achieving rapid leaps in the production of advanced weapons, including ships and fifth-generation aircraft that rival the US F-35.
China has doubled its military budget, and its identity as a country that used to rely on cloning the industrial products and technology of others is now a thing of the past. China now produces more than a quarter of the world’s inventions, and the same thing applies to scientific research. Its universities and research centres surpass those of the West.
In addition to North Korea and China, Iran will also stand with Russia in the face of NATO. The US has monitored Iran’s expansion in the production of missiles and drones, and Russia is participating in the development of Iranian weapons, as it is in those of North Korea.
Russia has announced that it will respond forcefully to the US deployment of long-range missiles in Europe and that it will strike any location from which US F-16 aircraft take off. It has said that it will respond if Poland’s air defence systems are used against Russian targets.
Russia does not need to deploy missiles near US borders, as it possesses Sarmat missiles capable of reaching the US in less than 15 minutes and European capitals in less than 100 seconds. However, it could deploy its missiles in Latin American countries such as Cuba and Venezuela.
The conflict between the East and the West is escalating, despite the risks of a war in which victory cannot be achieved as both sides possess nuclear weapons that are capable of wiping out humanity. If one side risks defeat, it may be tempted to use these deadly weapons. The tremendous development of destructive weapons will make any new world war the war that ends the world.
While the conflict is now taking place at the low level of clashes and has moved from an economic conflict to a limited military conflict in Ukraine, the escalatory steps on the part of NATO have been met with escalation on the part of Russia and China.
Any new steps will bring the world closer to direct confrontation, and thus there can be no other option than finding a diplomatic solution that accepts the new multipolar reality. The US must realise that it has lost its unipolar hegemony and that China cannot be defeated or its progress stopped.
The post-World War II world has changed, and the US must also accept that Israel no longer has the upper hand in the Middle East region and that the Palestinians have rights that they will and must obtain.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 18 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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