Regional tensions reached a new peak on Tuesday evening when an Israeli strike targeting high-ranking Hizbullah commander Fouad Shokr hit southern Beirut, in Dahieh.

At the time of going to press on Tuesday, reports indicated Shokr did not survive the attack. No official confirmation had been made publicly.

The bomb landed some 48 hours after Israel blamed Hizbullah, a major ally of Iran’s, for a rocket attack that killed 12 children in the Druze village of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in Syria. The Israeli media said Shokr, a member of the highest echelons of Lebanon’s Shia militant group, was blamed for the Majdal Shams attack. In the wake of the attack US State Department Deputy Spokesman Vedant Patel said Washington would continue to work towards a resolution preventing further escalation.

According to foreign diplomatic sources in Cairo and Beirut speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly anonymously, Washington and Paris have been actively trying to contain the possibility of a new war since the Golan Heights strike on Sunday.

“While Hizbullah refuses to take responsibility for the attack, everybody knows the intention was not to hit the Druze village; the rocket rather strayed from its [Israeli] target.” He added that some kind of reaction was expected of Israel, “though the diplomacy of the past 48 hours had clearly sought something much more contained.”

The source explained that the US and France had strived to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stay away from Beirut, targeting some other Hizbullah military installation. This is what Israel has been doing in its extended low- to medium-intensity confrontation with the Lebanese group since the start of the war on Gaza.

“Now that it did hit Beirut, Hizbullah is bound to react somehow,” the same source said. Factors that will determine the nature of the reaction, he added, include whether or not the mediators like Washington and Paris manage to convince Hizbullah to avoid a major escalation.

There is also the Iranian position to think about. Prior to the Israeli strike on Dahieh, Tehran had warned Israel of “consequences” should any new “military adventures against Lebanon” occur: “Any ill-informed action by the Zionist regime can lead to broadening the scope of instability, insecurity and war in the region,” Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani said, adding that Israel would be responsible for “the unforeseen consequences and reactions to such stupid behaviour.”

On his X account, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said that Hizbullah had crossed the red line. The statement was texted soon after the Israeli strike, whose toll at the time of going to press was three killed and 68 injured.

But, according to the same source, speaking to the Weekly from Lebanon only minutes after the Israeli strike, “In fact, Israel too has crossed the red line — both in terms of the site, given that it hit the Lebanese capital, and in terms of the rank of its target.” All bets are off now, he added.

Three foreign diplomats said it was unlikely Hizbullah would opt for a limited retaliation. According to one diplomat, the US has sent at least one aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean and more airliners were likely to suspend flights to and from Beirut for the following 72 hours.

In a statement by the Foreign Ministry on Sunday, Egypt warned against opening a new front in Lebanon that could broaden the scope of regional tension while the Israeli war on Gaza, which started on 7 October last year, continues to rage.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 1 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly