From the early days of the state of Israel, successive Israeli governments have adopted the targeted assassinations of Palestinians and Arabs who have attacked Israelis as a policy tool, whether to exact revenge, like for the attack on Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972, or against some Palestinians who have led Palestinian resistance movements.

The list of those who have been assassinated is long, and when measured against its end results, I guess this policy has been counterproductive in the sense that it has not solved the most contentious questions between Israel and its adversaries.

Most important of all, it has not diminished the resolve of those who want to free their land from Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Nor has it led to the weakening of strong Arab resistance movements like Hamas in Gaza or Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Last week in the span of less than 24 hours, Israel assassinated the second in command of Hizbullah, Fouad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in south Beirut in Lebanon and the leader of the Political Bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in, of all places, Tehran, where he was attending the official inauguration of the newly elected Iranian president.

Two days later, the Israeli army announced that it had received intelligence confirmation that the military commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military arm of Hamas, Mohamed Deif, had been killed in a prior Israeli attack on 13 July.

It goes without saying that these assassinations could boost the morale of the Israeli people to a degree for a limited time and give them a false sense of security. However, in the long run they will prove ineffective in stemming the will of the resistance and the determination of the Palestinians and the Arabs in challenging and fighting Israeli forces.

Hamas is a case in point. The Israelis assassinated the founder of this movement, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, in 2004. They also attempted to poison the former head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Khaled Meshaal, in Amman in 1997, and had it not been for warnings from the late King Hussein of Jordan, who managed to deliver an antidote, Meshaal would have died.

Also on the list of assassinated Hamas leaders figure Mahmoud Al-Zaher, Abdel-Aziz Al-Rantisi, and the well-known bomb-maker Imad Mughnieh. After the attacks on southern Israel on 7 October last year, Israel assassinated Marwan Eissa, a Hamas military commander, on 10 March this year, Ossama Al-Mezeiny, the former speaker of Hamas’ Shura Council, and Azzam (“the Bald”) on 2 January, along with Salah Al-Arouri, a former deputy of the chairman of the Political Bureau of Hamas. This is not an exhaustive list.

Within the ranks of Hizbullah, in addition to Shukr the Israelis assassinated Wessam Al-Taweel, a commander of the Al-Radwan Force on 8 January, Mohamed Nasser, a commanding officer of the Al-Aziz Force, on 3 July, and Sami Abdallah, the commanding officer of the Al-Nasr Battalion.

One of the lessons that the Israelis have not learned from the 7 October attacks is that despite the “elimination” – the Israeli word for those who have been assassinated – of some prominent leaders within Hamas, the movement was still able to carry out the large-scale attacks against the south of Israel last October. Its fighters brought back 250 hostages from Israel in attacks that cost the lives of 1,200 Israelis.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran has raised the spectre of a major military conflagration in the Middle East. At time of writing, Israel is in a heightened state of readiness waiting for Iranian reprisals, and several major airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv.

US President Joe Biden called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the assassination of Haniyeh to reaffirm the “ironclad” support of the US for the security of Israel against Iranian threats, while calling for a speedy ceasefire agreement in Gaza that would lead to the release of the hostages and pointing out that Israel would be on its own if it chose to escalate its attacks in the form of further assassinations.

Perhaps the Israelis will pause for a while before going after Palestinian leaders in Hamas, senior officials and military commanders in Hizbullah, or commanders in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps operating in Syria. It has been reported that Israel has Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah in its sights and could target him if a political decision orders it. Maybe Biden had this in mind when he warned Netanyahu that the US will not come to Israel’s aid if it decides to escalate its attacks.

However, there is nothing on the horizon that indicates that Netanyahu is in a mood to de-escalate anytime soon. After his trip to Washington in July and the warm welcome he received from members of Congress during his remarks before a joint session of the House of Representatives and the Senate, he believes there is no need to do so. This is in addition to his separate meetings with Biden, Vice-President Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee of the Democrats in the forthcoming US presidential elections, and former president Donald Trump.

From his standpoint, this was a triumphant trip during which he made the most of the highly polarised political scene in the US and the ill-timed and ill-advised US support for the unjust and devastating war that he has unleashed against not only the Palestinians in Gaza but also Israel’s neighbours in the region, if only indirectly.

One thing is certain: more targeted assassinations and the perpetual use of force and threats of the use of force by Israel will not dent the will, determination, and perseverance of the Palestinians and of the Iranian-backed Hizbullah from confronting Israel militarily until it realises that regional security is not a zero-sum game.

Until that day comes, the Middle East, because of Israel, will remain in a state of near-perpetual war.

The writer is former assistant foreign minister.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly