“Tell the Zionists we are prepared to fight. There will be no trace of Satan left after our attack.” These are the words of a song played on Iranian television on 2 August. Similar songs have not been played since the Iran-Iraqi War in the 1980s.

On 31 July, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, by Israel in Tehran marked the peak of the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The move was unexpected, including by the US, Israel’s most significant ally, and it dealt a severe blow to Iran.

It has brought the entire region to the verge of war after Iran threatened to respond harshly to the Israeli attack.

Iran has taken several new steps as a result of the earlier Israeli air attacks in April. It has also made defensive as well as offensive preparations. The Iranian military has transferred many air-defence batteries to strengthen the western side of the country, such as the S-300, Sayyad-2, and Khordad, while also moving its Murmansk-BN long-range communication-jamming system, whose purpose is to disrupt air operations, especially bomber aircraft.

The Tor-M1 defence battery and the Raad system are being used to guard the offices of the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This might say something about the possible strength of Iranian strikes on Israel, since it allows for the possibility of a counter-attack on his offices.

Israeli officials expect that Iranian ballistic missiles will be fired first, followed by cruise missiles and then drones, in order to shorten the time it takes to alert the country to the start of an Iranian attack. Modern Fatah hypersonic missiles are likely to be used rather than older missiles as in previous attacks.

The essential question is whether the attack will be carried out independently by Iran or whether it will also involve actions by Iran-supported militias in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon.

Hizbullah has maintained daily skirmishes with Israel over the last week or so, but this time its objective has been to test Israeli defences, detect radar sites, and target them, possibly clearing the way for an Iranian attack that will require several days to plan.

Its consequences will be analysed militarily and geopolitically, taking into account the Iranian nuclear programme as one of Iran’s deterrence tools.

According to the New York Times, “US Defense Secretary Lloyd J Austin ordered additional combat aircraft and missile-shooting warships to the Middle East” last week, along with one additional squadron of F-22 fighter jets, an unspecified number of additional Navy cruisers and destroyers capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, and, if needed, more land-based ballistic-missile defence systems.

In addition to some 80 land-based combat aircraft, the Pentagon has already deployed more than a dozen warships in the region. The US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, equipped with about 40 F/A-18 Super Hornet and F-35 attack planes, is now steaming near the Arabian Gulf, while the US Wasp amphibious ready group, with 30 airplanes and helicopters as well as 4,500 Marines, is operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. There are already F-35, F-16CM, and F-15E aircrafts in the Middle East.

The US Air Force and Navy have thus deployed a major strike force, whose role is not limited to defensive missions, to the region. It contains attack aircraft that can achieve complete domination of the skies, secure bomber formations, and enable the latter to penetrate enemy air defences and deliver powerful strikes.

These formations train annually in the Red Flag exercises in the US, where the Navy and the Air Force are combined into a single offensive scenario, indicating the US determination to deter any Iranian attack on Israel.

According to the Israeli website Axios, US General Michael Kurilla plans to visit several Gulf countries as well as Israel to make sure that defensive assets are in position and strategic planning is complete.

Again according to the New York Times, US President Joe Biden earlier expressed concerns over the timing of the assassination of Haniyeh, suggesting that it could hinder the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages and potentially spark a regional conflict.

According to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida, “a senior source in Iran’s Supreme National Security Council” revealed that a US security delegation also travelled to Iran with Omani mediation to convey a message of “calm and warning” to Tehran’s leaders and reiterate to the Iranians that the US was not aware of the assassination of Haniyeh and that Biden was upset at Israel’s unilateral action.

The newspaper claimed that the delegation gave a list that included “the names of 10 Mossad agents” inside Iran to the Iranians, believing these to be involved in the assassination, either directly or indirectly. This may have been the reason for the arrest of 20 prominent individuals in Iran, including Hassan Karami, commander of the Iranian Police Special Units, reportedly arrested by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on charges of spying and collaborating with Israeli Intelligence.

The world is now waiting to see how Iran will respond to Haniyeh’s assassination. Will it be a deliberate escalation to save face for the Iranian side, which has been subjected to considerable embarrassment as a result of the attack in Tehran and wants to respond strongly to maintain its position with its militias and allies?

Any attacks will be repelled, and the Israeli response will be severe and will attempt to restore the deterrence policy that failed last October. However, at the same time the Israeli focus on prolonging the war and sliding into other conflicts will also irritate the US administration, which wants to end the dangerous escalation in the region and avoid slipping into endless battles to defend Israel’s security.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly