On 25 August at 4:45am, Israeli Air Force pilots were preparing to take off at the Ramat David Base in northern Israel. They were listening intently to the voices of other pilots attacking Hizbullah targets in Southern Lebanon in pre-emptive strikes based on intelligence that Hizbullah would later attack Israel.

Some 15 minutes later, hundreds of rockets were launched from Lebanon at Israel, and as Israel’s Iron Dome missile-defence system intercepted them, while allowing some to get through, the pilots were scrambled to take off immediately to intercept those that had been able to penetrate Israel’s air defences.

The pilots had full confidence in succeeding in their mission because they are highly trained in air combat, especially those from the 101st and 105th squadrons who can intercept suicide drones flying quickly at extremely low altitudes. Some of the pilots succeeded in intercepting some of the drones, while others failed as they were able to pass underneath their planes.

The Israeli Air Force attempted to minimise the intensity of the rocket launches and launched a second round of attacks to destroy Hizbullah rocket platforms in South Lebanon, bringing the exchange to an end and ushering in a new stage in the escalation between Hizbullah and Israel.

According to a statement from Hizbullah, the group carried out attacks in two stages.“The first stage was accomplished successfully and saw Israeli military installations targeted in order to facilitate the crossing of offensive drones to targets deep within Israel,” it said.

In a second stage, “more than 320 Katyusha rockets were fired at enemy positions in Meron, Naveh Ze’ev, Jaaton, Zaora, Sahel, Kiel, Yoav, Nefah, Yerden, Ein Ze’tim, and Ramot Naftali.”

Israel’s defence relied on intercepting the Hizbullah rockets using the Iron Dome air-defence system, with fighter jets and attack helicopters chasing Hizbullah drones and shooting them down and reconnaissance and intelligence aircraft locating Hizbullah rocket platforms and targeting them with air attacks.

According to the Israeli Air Force X account, “about 100 fighter jets of the Air Force, under the direction of the Northern Command and the Intelligence Division, attacked and destroyed thousands of launch pads of the terrorist organisation Hizbullah that were established and planted in the area of Southern Lebanon. Most of them were directed towards the north and some towards the centre of the country. Also, over 40 launch sites were attacked.”

However, it seems that the Israeli pre-emptive strikes were not enough to deter Hizbullah from carrying out its attacks, since according to an Israeli army spokesperson 210 rockets and 20 drones were launched from Lebanon at northern Israel. Some of the rockets were intercepted, while others caused damage and injuries. Many also struck open areas, he said.

A Dvora Navy patrol boat was lost when it was accidentally hit by a Tamir missile from the Iron Dome while trying to intercept a Hizbullah drone attacking from the sea.

The attacks come four days after statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Ramat David Base that Israel would “closely monitor our preparations against threats both near and far. We are prepared for any scenario, both in defence and attack.”

“Nasrallah in Beirut and [Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei in Tehran should know that what we did today is another step towards changing the situation in the north,” he said. It is clear that Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the escalation to continue Israel’s military operations in the north of the country.

Questions have arisen as to why Hizbullah waited 26 days before revenging the assassination by Israel of its military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Israel has been taking steps leading to escalation, among them assassinating Hizbullah military leaders and Ismail Haniyeh,head of the Hamas Political Bureau, while he was on a visit to Tehran.

The preemptive Israeli strikes may have reduced the intensity of Hizbullah’s attacks, but it is possible that they were just a moral operation for local consumption without combat effectiveness, only aiming at minor damage from rockets and drones and not equal to promises of revenge.

However, there may also be another reason for the attacks, since they may have been designed as a test of the Israeli air defences and to discover vulnerabilities. They may also have been a way of putting pressure on Israel to reach an agreement with Hamas.

The rocket attacks can be considered as another indicator of the failure of the deterrence strategy that Israel has always adopted in dealing with the Iranians and their militias, and they may force the Israelis to admit that their enemy has extensively studied their military capabilities and limitations, as shown in videos published by Hizbullah of underground military tunnels containing rocket launchers.

Thomas Newdick, a military affairs specialist writing for the website the War Zone, said that “the design of these tunnels is usually such that even if one of the apertures is struck by a missile or bomb, the rest of the tunnel network survives intact.”

“Perhaps most interesting are the apertures cut into the roof in certain parts of the tunnel, which allow rockets to be fired without the launch vehicles having to leave the tunnels. Similar to the Iranian tunnel networks for ballistic missiles, this means the rockets can be moved around the tunnels, making them even harder to target, even with bunker-busting weapons.”

“A hazardous ground assault might be needed to fully clear the underground network,” he concluded.

Israel’s ongoing escalation of the conflict may also be traced to the strong US support for Israel, regardless of disagreements over the proposed hostage deal with Hamas. White House National Security Council Spokesman Sean Savett said that senior US officials have been communicating continuously with their Israeli counterparts.

“We will keep supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, and we will keep working for regional stability,” he said.

The US Navy has deployed a strike force unprecedented since the second Gulf War to the region, with a total of 30 combat ships, represented by two aircraft carriers with eight squadrons of F-18E/F and F-35C fighter aircraft, along with two squadrons of EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft equipped with the most powerful ALQ-249 jamming system in the US arsenal.

The USS Georgia submarine carrying 154 cruise missiles has been deployed, along with 12 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers stationed in the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean and capable of carrying out missile attacks. The Wasp-class amphibious assault group carries a formation of AV-8 attack planes and 3,000 Marines.

In parallel, the US Air Force has deployed dozens of F-22, F-16, F-18, F-15, and A-10 fighter jets, as well as four air-refuelling squadrons. Huge cargo planes have been sent to transfer Patriot and THAAD air defence systems.

The escalation is likely to continue due to the parties’ refusal to reach a ceasefire agreement despite the efforts of mediators. Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport has also been packed with hundreds of Israeli citizens fleeing the war.

The next development depends on whether Iran decides to strike Israel directly or whether it encourages its militias to do so in its stead.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly