The Israeli occupation has developed a pattern. It commits brutal massacres or otherwise escalates in the Gaza Strip whenever negotiations commence regarding a potential exchange deal or ceasefire. The negotiations typically involve mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the US. The latest round of talks was held in Cairo.

Hamas insists that Israel must adhere to the agreements signed on 2 July, citing references from Joe Biden’s speech and UN Security Council resolutions, while Israel insists on maintaining control over the Philadelphi Corridor and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to approve the release of key Palestinian prisoners demanded by Hamas.

The Hamas delegation’s main demands are a ceasefire, withdrawal of forces from Gaza, allowing residents to return to their homes, providing aid to displaced Palestinians, initiating reconstruction efforts, a fair exchange of prisoners, implementing Biden’s proposal, and Security Council Resolution 2735. Hamas urges Israel to comply with these terms rather than initiating fresh negotiations.

Israel remains adamant about retaining 65 prisoners serving life sentences, refusing full withdrawal from the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors in Gaza, and insisting on maintaining military installations along the border. In addition, Israel persists in requiring the presence of the international EUBAN mission at the Rafah Crossing as a precondition for its withdrawal and operation.

“Each time negotiations commence between Hamas and Israel, the occupying forces intensify attacks on civilians and perpetrate increasingly brutal massacres. This reflects Netanyahu’s lack of genuine commitment to the negotiation process, engaging in them as a political tactic to prolong the conflict out of fear for his own fate in the day-after,” political analyst Nidal Khadra told Al-Ahram Weekly.

“Netanyahu’s dispatch of an Israeli delegation to negotiations is a distraction tactic. The completion of a deal could potentially open avenues for holding Netanyahu responsible for his failures in the 7 October attack and various political and financial corruption cases, such as the German submarines deal and gifts he and his wife received. Netanyahu’s attempts to make judicial amendments to shield himself from repercussions further compound the situation,” he added.

Hassan Asfour, a former member of the Palestinian negotiating team in Oslo and the PLO Negotiations Department, told the Weekly that “the selection of Al-Sinwar as the head of Hamas might serve as an American ploy to ease pressure on Netanyahu, who faces mounting challenges after Hamas unreservedly accepted the Security Council resolution and Biden’s proposal. Netanyahu will find Sinwar’s selection – described in some Palestinian and Arab circles as the ‘strategic reply’ to Haniyeh’s assassination – the opportunity of a lifetime to keep running from the exchange deal.”

For Hani Al-Dali, a scholar of the resistance, “Israel’s elimination of Haniyeh aimed to weaken Hamas, but it backfired. Choosing Sinwar as his successor was a strategic move to defy Netanyahu, showcasing Hamas’ resilience and efficacy. The decision signals its pivot towards bolstering its military focus over negotiations flexibility concerning the prisoner exchange and ceasefire talks. Consequently, Israel may respond with heightened escalations and atrocities, as has been the case.”

Following Sinwar’s election as the head of Hamas, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) confirmed an escalation in Israeli bombings of the Gaza Strip. “The influx of mass casualties into MSF-supported medical facilities in Rafah and central Gaza in the previous weeks resulted from multiple military attacks. MSF calls on Israel to cease these massacres immediately. The organisation also urges Israel’s allies, such as the US, the UK, and the European Union member states, to exert pressure on Israel to halt its brutal and criminal assaults on civilians in Gaza,” MSF stated.

Observers view this escalation as a perilous juncture, arguing that it aligns with a calculated strategy to disrupt peace efforts and secure political advantages. According to writer Mohsen Abu Ramadan, the massacres carried out by the occupation subsequent to Sinwar’s appointment may either close the door to negotiations leading to a deal, aligning with Netanyahu’s objectives, or open new negotiation avenues towards an agreement — a scenario pursued by Israeli security agencies like the army, Shin Bet, and Mossad.

He pointed to the disarray within Israeli political and military circles, where concerns over international reactions to these atrocities have diminished. However, the domestic opposition views these actions as a sign of the military’s inability to target genuine threats or achieve meaningful strategic gains.

Abu Ramadan asserted that the occupation has escalated its attacks in various parts of Gaza following Sinwar’s appointment, targeting civilians through killings, displacement, and starvation to force Hamas to reject negotiations, thereby enabling Israel to portray Hamas as intransigent: “Netanyahu’s objective in these massacres, including the massacres in Al-Tabin School and Mawasi Khan Younis, is to intimidate Hamas into exhibiting greater flexibility and relinquishing its demands.”

Israeli writer Gideon Levy condemned the massacre at the Al-Tabin School in Gaza, where over 100 Palestinians lost their lives, labelling it a war crime and a manifestation of Israeli moral bankruptcy. In an article for Haaretz, Levy criticised the narrative that such tragedies are unintentional and not constitutive of genocide, stressing that intent, not just the death toll, defines genocide.

“The negotiation dynamics post Haniyeh’s assassination follow a malicious set of political and strategic targets aimed at tempering regional tensions, delaying potential Iranian responses, and fostering conditions conducive to regional conflict -- the proof being the presence of the American envoy in the region,” Al-Dali said.

According to Al-Dali, the US is employing a strategy of incremental pressure, introducing diplomatic initiatives that Hamas may accept, only to allow the occupation to perpetrate brutal massacres subsequently. This tactic aims to weaken Hamas strategically, erode its negotiating leverage and popular support, and strip the resistance of its strengths.

Hamas has clarified that the new proposal aligns with Netanyahu’s conditions, particularly his stance against a permanent ceasefire and full withdrawal from the Strip, insistence on maintaining control over strategic areas like Netzarim, the Rafah Crossing, and the Philadelphi Corridor. Netanyahu also introduced new conditions regarding the prisoner exchange deal to hinder the process.

Many view Washington as complicit. If the US were genuinely committed to the negotiation process, it would have compelled Israel to cease its daily massacres, halt the supply of lethal weaponry, and ensure Israel’s compliance with international resolutions from bodies like the Security Council, the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court.

Tamara Haddad, a Palestinian writer and political researcher, told the Weekly, “Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining a partial military presence, with forces positioned 2 km away, reveals he wants to reassert control over Gaza, restructure the Strip, and impede any potential deal.” She stressed that this hints at plans for Israeli resettlement in Gaza.

The Hebrew website Walla cited two informed Israeli sources saying that, at Netanyahu’s directive, Israeli negotiators presented maps to representatives of Egypt and the US outlining a plan for Israeli forces to remain along the Philadelphi Corridor in a reduced capacity as part of the initial deal implementation stage. However, Egypt rejected this proposal, and the US conveyed to Israel that the map was unacceptable.

Saniya Al-Husseini, an international relations specialist, is not optimistic about a breakthrough in the ceasefire negotiations due to the entrenched positions of both Hamas and Israel. She pointed to the Biden administration’s inability to influence Netanyahu, particularly with the approaching US presidential elections.

“There is an urgent need for international pressure, especially from the US, to push Netanyahu towards a viable agreement. The current political landscape presents significant hurdles to achieving a resolution, with Hamas refusing to entertain new proposals following discussions of a revised plan put forth by Washington,” she added.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly