On 2 September, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced to parliament his government’s decision to suspend about 30 of its 350 arms export licences for Israel, pointing out “a clear risk that they might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law.” 

The suspended licences, he said, “include equipment that we assess is for use in the current conflict in Gaza, such as important components which go into military aircraft, including fighter aircraft, helicopters and drones, as well as items which facilitate ground targeting.”

While only a fraction of the UK’s total arms exports to Israel are affected, London’s decision could have an impact on the dynamics of the Western stance on Israel. It has also triggered speculation as to whether it foreshadows a radical reduction in British support for Israel’s criminal behaviour.

According to a survey conducted by YouGovin in March and April this year, 56-62 per cent of the sample believe the UK should stop exporting arms parts to Israel. A significant portion of the Labour Party, who are among the harshest critics of Israeli policies in Gaza, strongly approved the decision. The partial and temporary suspension of weapons licences is undoubtedly a response to mounting grassroots pressures in the UK in support of Palestinian rights.

Barely a week has passed since Israel launched its assault on Gaza without demonstrations and other forms of protest in London and other cities, both on university campuses and on the streets.

There is a growing gulf between public opinion and the official pro-Israeli policy. While the British have been historically sympathetic with Israel, this is fast changing. An opinion poll conducted by Focaldata for the British news site UnHerd in June found that the majority of British voters were at odds with both mainstream parties on foreign policy. They believed that foreign policy should be more focused on what serves national interests and that Britain should be less involved in foreign wars.

On Israel, the poll found that 27 per cent believed London should take a tougher stance on Israel, 12 per cent that it should take a tougher stance on Palestine and 35 per cent that it should disengage from that conflict. The survey found a significant decline in support for Israel among young people. For example, 54 per cent of the respondents aged 18 to 24 agreed with the statement that “the State of Israel should not exist.” Only 21 per cent disagreed.

Clearly, London feels compelled to respond to the mounting tide of public opinion worldwide and the growing alarm voiced by UN and other humanitarian agencies at the enormous toll in civilian lives and appalling humanitarian conditions in Gaza. However, the decision to suspend weapons export licences was also probably linked to domestic partisan concerns.

The Palestinian cause and opposition to the Israeli war on Gaza was a hot-button issue in recent British elections. Labour lost four seats to independent candidates who won primarily on the strength of campaigns calling for the end of the genocide in Gaza. In taking this decision, therefore, the current Labour government probably hopes to win back Arab, Muslim and many other voters who had turned away from the party because of its staunch pro-Israeli stance under Keir Starmer.

Some believe that the UK may be building pressure on Israel incrementally to push the Netanyahu government to take the political course and stop its war machine. Accordingly, the decision to cut some arms exports is linked to London’s recent call for dialogue between Israel and the Palestinian factions.

London may be taking its cue from Washington which, despite its unqualified support for Israel, is pushing for a ceasefire or at least an end to the war for fear that prolonging it will backfire in terms of the interests of the US and its allies, foremost among which is the UK. This might help to explain the unprecedented public event featuring the CIA and M16 chiefs during the FT Weekend Festival in Hamstead Heath on 7 September.

Nevertheless, if the suspension of less than 12 per cent of British weapons exports to Israel signals a shift of sorts, it certainly does not herald a wholehearted British push for the Palestinian right to self-determination in a sovereign, independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Nor does it signal the end of the UK’s support for Israel or even a souring of that bilateral relationship. “There is no equivalence between Hamas terrorists and Israel’s democratic government,” the foreign secretary said in his speech to parliament. “We will continue to work with Israel and our partners to tackle the threat from Iran across the region.”

In keeping with this position, Lammy assured his audience, “this is not a blanket ban. This is not an arms embargo… Neither will the action we are taking have a material impact on Israel’s security.”

He also pointed out that the action would not affect the supply of components for Israel’s F-35s. Yet, these bomber jets, which can carry 2000-pound JDAM bombs, have been confirmed to be in active use to strike targets in Gaza.

The nature of the foreign secretary’s assurances seems to confirm that the decision to cut some arms exports to Israel was taken in response to extremely strong domestic pressure motivated by the humanitarian catastrophe Israel is unleashing in Gaza. That said, the British protest movement could build on this, joining forces with its counterparts in France, Germany and other European countries to dismantle the official pro-Israeli narrative and generate a broad front of opposition to the European governments’ active support for Israel in its war.

According to some analysts, a qualitative shift in the EU position on Israel has already begun. In late August, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, raised the possibility of imposing sanctions on some ministers in the Israeli government who have been responsible for fuelling campaigns of racist hatred and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. In July, the EU imposed sanctions on eight extremist settlers and three Jewish extremist organisations for human rights abuses against Palestinians in the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, and for preventing humanitarian relief from entering Gaza.

In short, although far from a radical change in London’s stance on Israel, the new decision could serve as a springboard for a break with the long record of pro-Israeli bias across Europe. Perhaps it could even stimulate enough pressure to force Israel to stop the war and engage in a serious negotiating process. Israel’s mask has fallen, and European countries are now trying to distance themselves from what lies beneath.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly