Late Monday evening, Egypt and Israel denied rumours of border skirmishes. While the Israeli media had originally reported an attack on Israeli soldiers followed by shooting across the Egyptian border both Cairo and Tel Aviv spoke of a fudged drug trafficking operation.

The promptly issued official statements from both sides came amidst increasingly unmasked tensions in bilateral relations which Egyptian officials said this week are a result of the Israeli war on Gaza and the failure of the US to secure a ceasefire deal as the war approaches its one-year anniversary.

Speaking off record, an informed source said: “While I cannot say that deep tensions is an accurate qualification of the situation, I can say that we are in conflict over the direction of the war on Gaza and the possible path towards a ceasefire, and on the security and administrative measures that will be needed the day after.”

Other sources say that, for the most part, relations are continuing within the framework of business as usual. There has, as yet, been no significant interruption of bilateral cooperation and there appears to be a clear understanding on both sides that they cannot go beyond a certain point with their disagreements.

Earlier this week, the Israeli press suggested that Cairo has been dragging its feet over the process of nominating a new Israeli ambassador to Egypt. Egyptian sources downplayed the issue, saying the process of nominating a successor to Israel’s current ambassador has been complicated by the fact that as the war in Gaza drags on, Israel has significantly downsized its diplomatic representation in Cairo and other Arab capitals.  

Egypt, they point out, has not recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv and has continued to mediate in good faith between Hamas and Israel to help end the war and spare civilians from its devastating consequences. They add, however, that Egypt is profoundly disappointed by two things: “the absolute lack of political will on the side of the Israeli prime minister” Benjamin Netanyahu to work towards a deal, and Netanyahu’s attempts to create a de-facto reality along the 14 km Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Gaza.

According to a government source, for his “own political reasons and calculations” Netanyahu is not ready to end the war and “has used every excuse and trick in the book” to avoid doing so, including “insisting on a level of Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor that he knows is way beyond anything that Egypt will accommodate even temporarily”. The source added that to further his scheme Netanyahu started lobbying with some Arab capitals to plan for an Arab-Muslim force to be stationed in the corridor without first obtaining Cairo’s consent.

The 1978 Camp David Accords clearly stipulate the Israeli military in this zone and any on-the-ground amendments to the status quo need a green light from Cairo.

Netanyahu claims that a long-term Israeli military presence on the border, and an Arab-Muslim military monitoring force, is needed to halt subterranean weapons smuggling from Sinai into Gaza. Egyptian sources say that Egypt has gone the extra-mile to block any remaining tunnels on the Egyptian side of the border, in cooperation with the Americans who are the caretakers of the Egyptian-Israeli peace deal.

“Every time a ceasefire deal is round the corner, Netanyahu makes unfounded claims on the smuggling of weapons across the Egyptian border,” Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said this week.

While there is nothing new about Egyptian officials accusing Netanyahu of making up pretexts to avoid a ceasefire, in the past such remarks were made off record. According to sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, the recent shift in the language and openness of Egypt’s statements reflects Cairo’s frustration over Netanyahu’s delaying tactics.

According to statements issued by the president’s press office, in meetings with visiting European officials this week, including the outgoing European Union Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell and the Foreign Minister of Denmark Lars Løkke Ramussen, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi continued to warn of the possibility of a wider conflict. Sources say that Cairo’s concerns remain despite signs of containment on the Israeli front with Hizbullah in Lebanon and with Iran.

They argue that there is no telling what could happen in the West Bank given ongoing Israeli military attacks there, or along the border with Jordan, especially after the attack on Sunday on the Allenby Bridge that connects the Hashemite Kingdom with the West Bank which resulted in the killing of three Israelis.

On Monday, Egyptian sources confirmed US news reports that it was unlikely that Washington would now propose the take-it-or-leave-it deal to Hamas and Israel that US officials had heavily trailed in recent weeks.

While government sources say that there is still a possibility the Americans might push forward with a proposal, the chances of it being accepted by the Israelis and Hamas are extremely slim. This, they add, means that the war will continue, and by extension, so will tensions with Israel.

According to Egyptian diplomat Hisham Youssef, who has years of experience dealing with the Palestinian file, five factors will shape the future of the Egyptian-Israeli relations.

First, he said, Israel needs to accommodate “Egyptian sensitivities around Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of land running the length of the Egyptian-Gaza border” in any future security scheme. Second, Israel needs to avoid any actions that ignite tensions on the ground as the war on Gaza continues given that “Israeli and Egyptian soldiers are operating in close proximity in an already tense environment.”

The three other factors, he said, relate to access of humanitarian aid to Gaza, governance, security and reconstruction in the Strip, and a political avenue for Palestinian statehood without which recurrence of confrontation is inevitable. Israeli choices on these fronts all need to be coordinated with Egypt.

According to Youssef, any deterioration in Egyptian-Israeli relations will harm the entire region and it is therefore essential that the US makes every effort to address “the fissures”.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly