On his return from a summit with American President Joe Biden at the White House, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer fielded a call by former top UK politicians to approve Ukraine’s use of British long-range missiles to attack Russia’s interior without waiting for US consent. In an “exclusive” story this weekend, The Sunday Times published statements from five former British defence ministers and former prime minister Boris Johnson concluding that any delay in allowing Kyiv to use the UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets in Russia “will further embolden Putin”. All of those quoted by the paper are from the Conservative Party which lost the election earlier last July after 15 years of rule.

The Anglophone Summit on Friday stopped short of giving Ukrainians the green light to use Western-supplied missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia. These missile systems are part of the military aid provided to Kyiv by the US, the UK, and France, since Germany is still reluctant to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. But European countries were not free to grant Ukraine permission to use these missile systems without US approval, not only because the weapons contain American components but also because the US has the final say in critical issues within the NATO alliance.

Media reports and official statements indicate that Washington is about to change its mind and give the nod for such a move, providing that Ukrainians do not use American-supplied systems and use the ones provided by the UK and France instead. The reluctance is due to concern among some in the US administration that Moscow may step things up as a result. Yet, strong pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia wings in the US play down the threat of escalation, arguing that previous threats proved to be nothing but hollow rhetoric.

For now, Ukraine is using Western-supplied missile systems to strike inside of Russia, but close to its eastern borders. After its incursion into the Russian Kursk region, Kyiv wants to “move the war inside Russia” by striking targets deep inside it. Even if the Ukrainians have missile systems capable of this, they might not be able to use them without the providers’ approval. That is why Ukraine so far uses its own drones, not long-range missiles, to attack fuel depots inside Russia.

Following the Biden-Starmer summit, both heads of state announced that allowing Kyiv to use Western missile systems to strike inside Russia will be discussed at a UN gathering in New York later this month. The Anglophone Summit is the second for both leaders, who met in July during a NATO summit in the US, when Starmer was only days into his term the Labour Party won a landslide victory in the UK elections.

Though Starmer had many issues to discuss with Biden in his endeavor to strengthen “special relations” across the Atlantic, Ukraine dominated the summit. The previous UK government used to be more vocal in support of Ukraine and the new Labour government wants to show the same eagerness, especially as it needs more American cooperation to overcome daunting internal challenges, especially in the economy.

Other issues discussed ranged from the war on Gaza to bilateral trade and investment. But the focus on Ukraine was more important for both sides as their blanket support for Israel is making it hard to prioritise the aim of stopping the war in the Middle East. It proved difficult to find a positive angle when raising bilateral issues, since Biden is not seeking a second term in office and Starmer is uneasy about the possibility of former president Donald Trump winning the November election.

Ukraine and NATO policies are a convenient topic for US-UK cooperation. The summit was preceded by senior American and British officials visiting Kyiv and a media campaign about Iranian missiles in Russia. Many analysts noted the “Iranian connection” as a pretext for America’s approval of Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

With the apparent failure to achieve a breakthrough in the Middle East, the Ukraine war escalation might benefit both the American administration and the new British government, as one veteran British diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly. Raising the temperature on the Ukraine-Russia conflict might preempt Trump’s chances to change course if he is back to the White House in a few months’ time. It is also a remarkable diversion from the humanitarian disaster in occupied Palestine, as the diplomat noted.

Many analysts downplay the Russian response to American and NATO missile systems being used by Ukrainians against Moscow. Nothing should be ruled out, and any miscalculation can turn the “controlled escalation” into a wider war in Europe. That would redouble the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East, which gives some credence to pessimists’ assumption of a World War III on the horizon.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly