AP analysis: Is Israel preparing for a war with Hezbollah?

AP , Thursday 19 Sep 2024

With Israel's defense minister announcing a “new phase” of the war after an Israeli attack set off explosions in electronic devices in Lebanon, the specter of all-out combat between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever before.

Israel Lebanon
File photo: An Israeli Merkava tank drives into position in the north of Israel near the border with Lebanon. AFP

 

Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading quickly as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the country's north, where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since 8 October a day after Israel's war on Gaza erupted.

In recent days, Israel has moved a powerful fighting force up to the northern border, officials have escalated their rhetoric, and the country’s security Cabinet has designated the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal.

Here's a look at how Israel is preparing for a war with Lebanon:

Troops drawn from Gaza to the northern border
 

While the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated on several occasions, the bitter enemies have been careful to avoid an all-out war.

That appears to be changing — especially after pagers, walkie-talkies, and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack carried out by Israel.

“You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, leads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn't we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war."

As Israel's assault on Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that took part in Israel's invasion of Gaza.

The 98th Division is believed to include thousands of troops, including paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.

The division spearheaded the Israeli assault in the southern city of Khan Younis. The deadly incursion wreaked massive damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing, and resulted in scores of civilian deaths.

Israel's military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the border.

"The mission is clear," said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel's Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”

A 'new phase’ of war
 

The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel's leaders, who say their patience is running thin.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday night declared the start of a “ new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah. "The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.

He spoke a day after Israel's Cabinet made the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war.

After meeting Wednesday with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”

Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message with a top U.S. envoy sent to the region this week to soothe tensions.

An official with knowledge of the encounter told The Associated Press that the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.

Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that he “appreciates and respects” U.S. support and that Israel will “do what is necessary to safeguard its security.”

Is war inevitable?
 

Israeli media reported Wednesday that the Israeli government has not yet decided whether to launch a major assault in Lebanon.

Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah's response. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.

But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action against Hezbollah.

A poll conducted in late August by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, found that 67 percent of Jewish respondents believe Israel should escalate its military actions against Hezbollah. This includes 46 percent who support a major assault targeting Lebanese infrastructure and 21 percent who advocate for a heightened response that avoids hitting Hezbollah infrastructure.

“There’s a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ’OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,' war is imminent.”

Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.

Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since 8 October, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.

Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a monthlong war against Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.

But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.

Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.

*This story was edited by Ahram Online.

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