The African continent is one of the most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. Although Africa’s total greenhouse-gas emissions do not exceed four per cent of total global emissions, climate change is leading to an increase in extreme weather events across the continent, most notably drought and disrupted rainfall rates and desertification. This is resulting in increasing numbers of refugees and environmentally displaced persons and thus increasing pressures on infrastructure elsewhere, as well as exacerbating economic pressures.

The Horn of Africa region, comprising seven states, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and South Sudan, is one of the most significant to be affected by climate change. The repercussions of this have multiplied in recent years, particularly as tensions in the region and prolonged droughts as a result of climate change have displaced some two million people in Ethiopia and Somalia, led to millions of refugees crossing the border from Somalia and South Sudan into drought-affected areas in Kenya and Ethiopia, and led to 3.3 million others being affected by drought.

The World Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) report that some 66.7 million people in the Horn of Africa region suffered from severe food insecurity in June, after reaching 74.9 million in May.

Sudan is one of the most prominent countries in the Horn of Africa region to be vulnerable to climate change, particularly owing to rising temperatures and increasing drought rates as a result of erratic monsoon rains and increased environmental threats. The prolonged conflict in the country between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by the country’s President Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) has also resulted in thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people.

In order to deal with this conflict, a comprehensive and clear approach is needed centred on de-escalation and engaging international and regional organisations and internal bodies to overcome challenges and prevent their exacerbation. The size of displaced populations is growing, and a severe shortage of food commodities is exacerbating a disaster resulting from the escalating pace of military operations between the two sides.

There is a growing shortage of agricultural land in Sudan as a result of increased desertification, while heat waves associated with climate change have affected farmers’ lives and lifestyles. There are increasing levels of water evaporation and water stress. The military conflict has increased such environmental risks, forcing some six million Sudanese to become displaced and leave their homes. The increasing competition for limited resources, particularly water resources and agricultural land, is adding to tensions as the number of displaced persons increases, also increasing political and tribal divisions and adding to environmental degradation.

Concerted international efforts are needed to develop a comprehensive framework for the cessation of military operations between the two sides in Sudan, in the light of the serious escalation and the loss of thousands of civilian lives. In order to cope with the environmental consequences of the crisis, there is a need for adequate international support for a ceasefire, enhanced access to climate-change funds, and increased capacity-building and early warning systems.

FUELLING VIOLENCE: Various repercussions associated with climate change are adding to the problems linked to the ongoing civil conflict and also exacerbating it as a result of further droughts and water shortages.

The conflict between pastoralists and farmers has escalated in the Horn of Africa region as a result of climate change. The number of pastoralists in the region is between 12 and 22 million, making up a large proportion of the population. Pastoral communities are one of the most prominent groups affected by climate change, especially in the context of the unprecedented drought in the Horn of Africa.

More than 13 million head of livestock died in the region between 2020 and 2022 as a result of water and feed shortages. This has exacerbated the conflict between pastoralists and farmers, notably as a result of low rainfall in Sudan’s Southern Kordofan region, leading to a struggle for resources between settled farmers and groups of pastoralists moving towards the south of the country.

As a result of the climate change affecting the region, the movement in search of new grazing areas has become important for large groups of Horn of Africa Bedouin pastoralists. Conflicts between such tribes and indigenous pasture-rich populations are increasing, and these may be exploited by armed groups to enhance their influence and serve their objectives, aggravating conflicts among armed movements supporting one party or another in regional civil conflicts.

Some countries in the Horn of Africa have suffered a shortage of rain for five consecutive seasons since October 2020. Described as the worst drought in the region in 40 years, this culminated in 2022 with the drought in Somalia that resulted in some 43,000 deaths, with some 22 million people also being threatened with hunger in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.

As a result of climate change, the Horn of Africa is experiencing one of the worst food insecurity crises. In August 2022, some 22 million people were severely food insecure in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Some are already experiencing famine, although conflict- and crisis-prevention are at the heart of efforts to minimise climate risks and migration.

Climate change in the region has increased political, economic, environmental and demographic pressures in the region, which have increased in volume and in terms of competition for resources. There has been an escalation of destabilising migration, which exacerbates tensions within and between states, particularly where there are high rates of displacement. Low rainfall, high temperatures, and high drought rates have led to the flight of at least 180,000 refugees from Somalia and South Sudan to Kenya and Ethiopia.

A 2024 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that the affected countries are becoming more vulnerable to the challenges of climate change, exacerbating already difficult conditions. Six African countries are among the most affected by conflicts, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Burundi, Somalia, Eritrea. These countries host approximately 47 per cent of asylum-seekers and refugees on the African continent, and as a result displaced populations often also live in areas with environmental risks, with these expected to turn into huge climate challenges by 2030.

Finally, as a result of the conflict in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, the country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, which is expected to lead to unprecedented environmental fallout amidst already widespread drought and increasing desertification.

The writer is a specialist in African affairs.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly