In an online speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that “I have a message to the people of Lebanon. Israel is not fighting you, but Hizbullah has been fighting for a long time and is firing rockets from your homes, so the army warned you this morning to stay away from your homes.”

On the same morning, Israel began massive air strikes on Southern Lebanon.

According to the Israeli Air Force, “in one day… [there were] attacks on over 1,100 targets using over 1,400 weapons. Fighter jets and aircrafts from all Air Force bases took off and carried out about 650 attack sorties in the last days.”

As part of the attacks, the aircraft attacked buildings, vehicles, and infrastructure, in which it claimed that Hizbullah rockets, missiles, launchers, unmanned aerial vehicles and other military infrastructure has been found.

The brutal Israeli bombing by 150 aircraft killed 492 people and wounded 1,645.

The air campaign came in the wake of Hizbullah’s rocket shelling of Israel the day before, and for some observers it may have been a strategic mistake for Hizbullah to fall into the Israeli trap without paying attention to new field developments.

Israel has already prepared its battlefield intelligence and military for the large firepower represented by its Air Force. This has been carried out in accordance with the NATO combat doctrine JAM-GC against an unconventional adversary using three key steps, the first being disrupting the adversary’s command, control, reconnaissance, monitoring, and communication capabilities, done by the detonation of the communications equipment in conjunction with targeting commanders in the field.

The most important of these was Ibrahim Aqil, Hizbullah’s southern regional commander and commander of the key Radwan, Nasr, and Aziz fighting units. Had Israel succeeded in killing Ali Al-Karaki, the commander of Hizbullah’s southern sector, there would have been no senior commanders remaining in Hizbullah’s chain of command.

Israel’s elimination of Hizbullah’s defensive capabilities was partially achieved on 19 September by hitting 70 military targets in Southern Lebanon in approximately 20 minutes. This was followed by the neutralisation of weapon systems in the field during Israel’s continuing preemptive strikes on Hizbullah.

On the tactical level, Israel has successfully targeted Hizbullah’s missile systems by carrying out Dynamic Targeting and Time Sensitive Targeting (TST) missions. These require extensive efforts by intelligence units on the ground and in the air to detect and track targets that appear unexpectedly and guide precise air strikes to the target.

To succeed, dozens of planes carrying smart ammunition must patrol near the theatre of action.

This week, a new shipment of weapons to Israel was also announced, including BLU-109 piercing warheads for fortified structures, which are used in GBU-31 bombs weighing 2,000 pounds, indicating the Israeli leadership’s choice of a strategy with a disastrous impact on its adversary with limited operations inside Lebanese borders to dismantle Hizbullah’s infrastructure in the south.

According to the UK magazine the Economist, the Israeli army has a limited plan for creating a buffer zone in South Lebanon, and there is still the question of whether the destructive firepower of its Air Force is sufficient to end the battle in Israel’s favour.

Many Israeli units have been deployed over the last week, including Merkava 4m tanks, Namer armoured vehicles, and the 98th Paratrooper Division. In response to a question regarding the potential for a ground operation in Lebanon, Israeli Army Spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the army would do all that was necessary to restore security in northern Israel.

During the last war in Lebanon in 2006, Israeli ground forces suffered significant losses. There have been many new developments since then, including Hizbullah’s loss of the military and strategic balance, as well as half of its military arsenal, according to many reports.

However, the Israeli ground forces, according to many previous assessments, suffer on the offensive level, particularly in guerrilla wars against an unconventional opponent.

According to the Israeli Alma Institute, “between September 16 and 23, Hizbullah launched 62 attacks, including dozens of missiles and attack drones.” This showed the group’s determination to continue operations despite the weak military position, but at what cost?

Those who are facing the consequences are the Lebanese people. Lebanese Health Minister Firas Al-Abyad confirmed the forced migration of thousands of people fleeing the targeted areas, stressing the activation of an emergency plan to care for the displaced and the health needs of those with chronic diseases.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of Lebanon becoming “another Gaza Strip,” while US President Joe Biden has expressed alarm over Middle East tensions.

Iran is trying to leave Hizbullah to its fate in order to preserve its nuclear programme, one of the most important pillars of its deterrence strategy. It showed restraint even after the assassination of head of the Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh in the capital Tehran, and the injury of the Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon in the pager attacks.

Last week, the Iranian president said that “our allies do not receive orders from us and make their decisions according to their own defence estimates. Iran is ready for discussion with Washington and to resolve differences and the US has to meet its commitments.”

Meanwhile, Iran has announced the production of ballistic missiles and new suicide drones with a range of 1,000 to 4,000 km, but as usual this was for domestic consumption. Instead of a direct Iranian response, Iran is encouraging its militias to respond to Israel, even if a timid and limited response is not in line with the conduct of military operations.

According to the New York Times this week, “the Pentagon is sending additional US troops to the Middle East as tensions continue to rise after Israeli airstrikes against Hizbullah. Carrier Strike Group 8, led by the USS Harry S Truman and consisting of the Ticonderoga-Class Guided-Missile Cruiser USS Gettysburg and a pair of Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers, USS Stout and USS Jason Dunham, quietly departed from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia for a deployment to the Mediterranean.”

On Monday, European Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said that “this situation is extremely dangerous and worrying. I can say that we are almost in a fully-fledged war.”

As the world approaches the first anniversary of the start of the Gaza war, the Israeli army’s focus is being directed towards Lebanon. It is evident that the Israeli leadership will pursue its efforts to either prevail in the conflict or to accept the inevitable consequences due to security and political failures last 7 October.

Meanwhile, the present catastrophic situation in the Middle East will likely continue until the strategic balance is restored.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly