Esmail Qaani, leader of Iran’s elite Al-Quds Force, made a secret visit to Baghdad last week, this time amid reports that Baghdad and Washington have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq.

The visit by one of Iran’s most powerful security leaders and its pointman in Iraq also came amid the intensifying conflict over Gaza and regional efforts to prepare for what happens “the day after” the fighting stops in the Strip.

But while these are two long-term preoccupations for Iran, Qaani had an immediate and urgent task in Baghdad, which was to put the pro-Iran Shia house in order, after rising tensions between Shia factions and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani.

Qaani’s visit to Baghdad also came on the heels of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent visit to Iraq, his first foreign trip abroad since he took office last month and an indication, according to the Iranian media, of the two nations’ “strategic bonds.”

During his three-day trip, which also took him to the Kurdistan Autonomous Region of Iraq and the southern port city of Basra, Pezeshkian announced the conclusion of 14 deals with Iraq covering different economic and investment fields.

However, he shocked Iraqis when he proposed abolishing the border between the two countries and called for “Islamic unity,” which many believe was carefully crafted to mean even closer ties with the Islamic republic.

Pezeshkian explicitly urged his Iraqi counterparts to establish “special commissions to explore opportunities for expanding cooperation between Iran and Iraq in various spheres, including politics, economics, culture, and social affairs.”

Back in Tehran, he sought to clarify that his call for eliminating border controls was similar to the Schengen Area in the European Union and was aimed at “developing the region and solving its problems.”

Apparently addressing a local audience, Pezeshkian said his approach could help “neutralise the foreign sanctions” imposed on Iran over its nuclear activities, which are causing crippling shortages for many Iranians.

By decoding Qaani’s shuttle diplomacy and Pezeshkian’s speech, it is possible to shed light on Iran’s new efforts to revamp involvement in Iraq at a crucial juncture for both its beleaguered neighbour and the troubled region.

Iran’s interests in Iraq are no secret. Visible signs of Iranian influence spread all over the conflict-ravaged nation. The list of activities that demonstrate Iran’s interests in Iraq is long and far-reaching.

Thanks to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran emerged as the dominant foreign power in its western neighbour. It has since been quietly consolidating its control over Iraq and creating facts on the ground that are difficult for Iraqis to challenge.

Iran’s influence in Iraq uses security, religious, economic, and political activities to exhaust Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian communities and make them accept its dominance as a new reality on the ground.

One salient feature of Iran’s overwhelming presence in Iraq is the rise of Iranian-linked factions that have extended their networks inside the Iraqi government, security forces, the economy, and the public sphere.

This has highlighted Iran’s de facto power in Iraq since the fall of the regime of former dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 and has laid bare Iraq’s deepening subservience to the Islamic republic.

However, while Iran’s interventionist policies in Iraq may be evident on the ground and can be detected in the rhetoric of Iranian leaders, such as that of Pezeshkian, Iran’s playbook in Iraq remains discrete.

Much has been said about what Iran is trying to achieve in Iraq and how its objectives are being pursued. But independent assessments of Iran’s activities in Iraq have remained under scrutiny from the authorities.

In a rare disclosure, the Tehran Times, a state-controlled newspaper, set out guidelines for Tehran’s policy in Iraq in the Pezeshkian era. Its report provided a vivid analysis of Iran’s “renewed partnership” with Iraq, along with its objectives and operations.

The English language paper, which is closely tied to hardline factions within the Iranian government, wrote on 15 September that Pezeshkian’s visit underscored Iraq’s “geopolitical and geoeconomic” importance to the Islamic republic.

“Iran’s foreign policy strategy towards Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein has been shaped by various factors, including geography, economics, and its role within the Axis of Resistance,” it said.

The paper went as far as to describe the two countries’ bonds as a “convergence,” a term which could be considered embarrassing even by its closest Iraqi allies.

Yet, the urgency behind Iran’s revitalised engagement and actions in Iraq has never been more evident. Iran’s policy puts Iraq high on its regional agenda, and this could explain its new dynamics.

The new Iranian push comes as Iraq and the US are nearing an agreement on plans for the withdrawal of thousands of US troops from Iraq. Various reports suggest that hundreds of troops may start leaving by September 2025, with the remainder departing a year later.

Iran has opposed the US military presence in Iraq, which is part of the International Coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State (IS) group as it rampaged through the country. It has consistently called for its withdrawal.

Reports suggest that Qaani sought clarifications from Iraqi government leaders on news that a small residual US force would stay in Iraqi Kurdistan under the negotiated plans, which would also establish a “sustainable security partnership” between Baghdad and Washington.

As Tehran continues to express its disagreement with this policy, there are fears that Iran-backed militia groups, which have been pounding US positions in Iraq with rockets, will escalate their attacks, further increasing instability.

Iran’s fresh push into Iraq also comes as the conflict over Gaza is taking a sharp turn, raising fears that Israel’s confrontations with Iran’s allies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen could trigger a wider regional war.

Since the early months of the Gaza war, Iraqi Iran-backed militias have sought to apply steady military pressure on Israel in conjunction with their counterparts in Lebanon and Yemen.

While they have continued their attacks on US installations in Iraq from time to time, they have also claimed several drone attacks against Israel. Israeli air defences intercepted the machines with no casualties reported.

One of Tehran’s aims behind its new drive in Iraq is to ensure that its Shia allies remain in full control of the country in order to stay united. The Shia alliance in Iraq is in disarray as factional in-fighting intensifies ahead of parliamentary elections next year.

Qaani has reportedly been unable to contain the widening political divisions within the Shia alliance, raising concerns that instability in Iraq could undermine Iran’s efforts to keep Iraq as a main pillar of the Axis of Resistance.

For more than two decades, the Islamic republic has been consolidating its powerbase in Iraq and turning the war-torn nation into a battleground with its foes and rivals.

Iran’s proxies in Iraq, part of its larger web of armed partners in the Middle East serve to strengthen its regional influence and could pose a significant threat to Washington and its allies.

As the region faces the prospect of an all-out war following the deadly escalation in Lebanon this week and fears of the involvement of Iranian proxies, Iraq remains in the eye of the storm.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly