Gaza war resonates but has global diplomacy shifted one year on?

AFP , Saturday 28 Sep 2024

A year after the start of war in Gaza, diplomacy has failed to produce a ceasefire and the world watches on as the death toll mounts.

Gaza
Children stand on September 17, 2024 at a school destroyed by Israeli strikes in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing war in Gaza. AFP

 

Fears of war engulfing the wider region have soared as exchanges of fire have escalated between Israel and Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Over the past year, South Africa has taken Israel to court and some European governments have drawn Israeli anger by recognising the State of Palestine, but analysts say only a radical change in US policy can stop the conflict.

Here is a breakdown:

How has the war resonated?
 

Israel has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded nearly 100,000 others, a majority of them women and children.

To the north, Israeli air strikes killed more than 700 people in Lebanon and wounded hundreds of others in the country's deadliest day of violence since the 1975-1990 civil war, the Lebanese health ministry said.

Around the world, the war has had a polarising effect, generating passionate support for both sides.

"This war has considerably deepened fracture lines," said analyst Karim Bitar.

"What is happening today in Lebanon only compounds this."

For many people, especially in countries which experienced colonial rule, the West's perceived failure to defend the human rights of Palestinians had exposed its "hypocrisy", he said.

In the Arab world, "there is this idea that all great principles fly out the window when it comes to Israel and that the West remains consumed by guilt" from World War II and the Holocaust.

Palestinian historian and diplomat Elias Sanbar said that the West had given the Israelis a "carte-blanche of impunity" for decades, ever since the creation of Israel in 1948.

But today "it will be much harder to show unconditional support to Israel", he said.

Has international law prevailed?
 

South Africa in December brought a case before the International Court of Justice, arguing the war in Gaza breached the 1948 UN Genocide Convention.

Colombia, Libya, Spain, Mexico, Turkey and Chile have since joined the case.

Analyst Rym Momtaz said the ICJ proceedings against Israel were "unprecedented".

"International law is taking over the issue," she said.

In May, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court sought arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defence minister on suspicion of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Since October 7, violence against Palestinians has also flared in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where far-right parties in the governing coalition have championed a quickening expansion of Israeli settlements, regarded as illegal under international law.

At least 680 Palestinians have been killed in the territory by Israeli troops or terrorist settlers, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

UN member states have adopted a non-binding resolution to formally demand an end to the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories within 12 months.

But Israeli historian and diplomat Elie Barnavi said his country "doesn't care" about what the so-called global South thinks.

Is European support for Israel waning?
 

Some European governments have taken a stance.

Slovenia, Spain, Ireland and Norway have recognised the State of Palestine, drawing retaliatory moves from Israel.

The European Union has implemented sanctions against "extremist" settlers, and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has called for more against some far-right members of the Israeli government.

The United Kingdom has suspended 30 of 350 arms exports licences for Israel.

Barnavi noted a "real shift in the attitude of Europeans towards Israel", but said it was "insufficient".

Zeenat Adam, of the Afro-Middle East Centre in South Africa, said the UK arms exports suspension was "minuscule".

"The recent 'recognition' by European states of Palestine is mere lip-service," she added.

In the end, said Sanbar, countries in Europe largely still supported Israel, even if "a sort of embarrassment" at times triggered statements of concern.

"It's simply not enough," he said.

What of the United States?
 

All eyes are instead on Israel's main ally the United States, which has pushed for a ceasefire but kept up its military aid to Israel.

"If the United States do not change their stance, there will be no change," said Momtaz.

"There has been no real fraying of US military support to Israel. Yet it's that support that is crucial and makes all the difference," she said.

The Israeli defence ministry said on Thursday it had secured a new $8.7 billion US aid package to support the country's ongoing military efforts, including upgrading air defence systems.

Momtaz said it was not clear that the US presidential election in November would change anything, regardless of whether the winner was Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

"There has been no sign that a Trump or Harris administration would be ready to use US leverage, the only efficient means to help both parties stop this war," she said.

Bitar said that among US voters, the Jewish community and young progressive Democrats were more openly distancing themselves from Israel, but that might only have a political impact in 10 to 15 years' time.

No end in sight?
 

The Gaza war has revived talk of a so-called "two-state solution" of Israeli and Palestinian states living in peace side by side, but that goal seems today more unattainable than ever.

For too many years, the international community "promised a two-state solution without doing anything to end the occupation, to end settlements to make a Palestinian state viable," Bitar said.

"Many believe the train has left the station, that it's perhaps already too late," Bitar said.

Barnavi said there was "no other solution", though it would involve dismantling most settlements in the West Bank.

"It would imply a lot of violence, including a period of civil war in Israel," he said.

Sanbar said: "Never have the two sides been so distanced from each other. I don't know what could bring them closer."

*This story was edited by Ahram Online.

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