Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated rapidly since the 7 October attacks on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas last year. 

The situation has fluctuated between strikes, tense pauses, and then further strikes, with interim periods of playing it safe, and then more strikes meant to avenge previous ones or save face. The conflict between the two countries has become something like a game of cat and mouse.

A full-scale war would not benefit either country, so the goal on both sides is to come across as more powerful and ultimately victorious in a fruitless dogfight. 

Iran has lit up the skies of Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel with drones and missiles, and Israel has staged targeted strikes against Iran. Both Israel and Iran want to exhibit to the world, and their populations, that each can strike the other and do better than the other. 

Before the Iranian drone and missile attacks on Israel, the US was notified that they would take place, and the US then also notified Israel. The US was also notified in advance of the Israeli strikes on Iran. All this has given rise to a weird and convoluted scenario, in which each party understands that the other will attack and is free to take the necessary precautions. 

Needless to say, the real victims of this are the people of Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, as these encounters derail any remaining hopes of a breakthrough in the stagnant peace talks and sideline the tragedies occurring in the region. As the world focuses on the Iranian-Israeli conflict, the devastation in Gaza and Lebanon is too often ignored. 

Iran was not directly involved in the 7 October attacks last year, although without a doubt it supplied arms and support to Hamas. Iran’s proxies across the region, whether Hamas, Hizbullah, or the Houthis in Yemen, have been thorns in Israel’s side at least since last 7 October.

Since then, many fronts have opened up for Israel: Hamas attacked it from Gaza, Hizbullah attacked its northern border, and the Houthis attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea heading to Israel. Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have been launching rockets and missiles towards Israel. 

Of course, the Israelis were not minded to accept becoming sitting ducks and letting the Iranians have the upper hand, so they began their own series of attacks on Iran. On 1 April, the Iranian Consulate annex building hosting the ambassador’s residence in the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike. Some 16 people were killed. 

Iran vowed to retaliate in response to the strike, and in a move advertised as the first of its kind it launched a direct military assault on Israel named Operation True Promise 1. More than 300 missiles and drones were shot down by Israel and its Western allies above Israeli cities. 

Israel then retaliated on 19 April with limited airstrikes on an air-defence radar station close to a nuclear site in Iran. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was then assassinated in Tehran when he was attending the inauguration of Iran’s newly elected president by a bomb hidden in the wall of a government guest house in Tehran. 

Iran felt it had to respond, and on 1 October an Iranian strike labelled Operation True Promise 2 saw 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel. The US moved aircraft and ballistic missile defence systems to the region. 

“Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our service members, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles,” US President Joe Biden said.

The last episode in this vicious cycle of intimidation was Israel’s attack on Iran on 26 October, when it bombed military targets but did not touch the country’s oil and nuclear facilities. 

“The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7th on seven fronts, including direct attacks from Iranian soil,” the Israel Defence Forces said in a statement. “Like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.”

Israel said that based on its intelligence its aircraft had hit missile-manufacturing facilities used to produce the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel over the past year and that pose “a direct and immediate threat to the citizens of Israel.” Iran’s state media said that Israel’s attacks did not cause any major damage.

Will this be the last round in this game of tit-for-tat attacks? The Iranian News Agency said there would be a “proportional reaction” to the Israeli strikes. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran was “entitled and obligated” to defend itself but added that it “recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security,” a more pacific statement than those that came after every previous bout of escalation.

The world now hopes that Iran will step back from launching further reprisals, but there is debate in the country on how to respond to Israel’s breach of its national sovereignty. If the present escalatory spiral does not fizzle out, it may end up turning into an all-out war, which the US does not want, and the Middle East cannot afford.  

“This should be the end of it,” said one US official after the last round of strikes. 

Iran expert at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies Beni Sabti said the Israeli strikes on Iran had appeared to be designed to give Tehran an opportunity to avoid further escalation. 

If the conflict between Iran and Israel does not now slow down, the consequences will be huge for the Israelis, the Iranians, the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the whole Middle East. 

* The writer is a former professor of communication who is based in Vancouver, Canada.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly